Playing China's Game

"Of course we're in a difficult moment. Many things are currently on hold."
"[However], it's a good thing [if China is interested in holding Canadian government debt]."
"We want them to invest, right? It's a long-term relationship."
Unnamed senior government insider

"[This government will go on rallying allies to] make sure that China understands Canada is going to unequivocally stand up for the rule of law, respect our international treaties and obligations, and always put the safety of Canadians first."
"But we don't want to escalate. [China is] an extremely important and growing economy, a significant player on the world stage."
"[My government anticipates] continuing to trade with China but we need the Chinese authorities to understand that when it comes to the rule of law, Canada and an awful lot of other countries will stand firm regardless of the political pressures they put on us."
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

Still from video: China threatens ‘repercussions’ on Canada if Huawei 5G banned

"[Recent events] force us to look at what I would call the dark side of China, which is an authoritarian regime ... and will force the government to revise the engagement strategy ... and work with our partners, and say what can we achieve by working together."
"They will just ignore us and punish us [if we try to force them to play by our rules]. That's why we are at the stage where we need to revise our approach and be a bit smarter."
Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China

"[China is behaving] much more aggressively both at home and internationally. [But it doesn't serve Canada's interests] to adopt a Cold War mentality."
"The Soviet Union was a full-spectrum enemy during the Cold War. China is not an enemy. It is simultaneously a partner and an adversary."
"...We have to defend ourselves against China when it acts aggressively but it's also in our interests to co-operate with China in areas of mutual interest."
"By detaining Canadians, China has acted with a measure of aggressiveness that Canadians will not forget."
Roland Paris, Professor of International Affairs, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa

A screenshot from an ad created by Destination Canada in 2018, as seen on the popular Chinese website iQIYI.

A tense, grim standoff between trade giant China and middling-country Canada may be in progress but that hasn't stopped Canada from promoting itself as a tourist destination for the emerging Chinese middle class anxious to see the world. And nor has it stopped China from investing close to $6-billion in Canada two weeks ago when the government of Canada placed global bonds to the value of $3-billion up for auction, leading Chinese investors to buy up a "significant portion" of the bonds.

This, one supposes, is as much a symbol of Realpolitik as any in today's world, where China has reacted with viperous fury with the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou at the behest of U.S. authorities, for extradition to stand trial on charges of deliberately misleading U.S. banking interests for the purpose of evading American sanctions against doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran. China saw fit to arrest two Canadians in China on spurious state security charges, and to place a third Canadian on death row reflecting charges of drug smuggling.

Canada is under extreme duress. A trading partner with which this current Liberal government was determined to forge a free trade deal is holding Canada's feet to the fire with demands it release Meng as a first step to remedying relations, and threatening dire repercussions should Canada decide not to permit Huawei to take part in Canada's 5G technology upgrade. Amid and amongst all the reportage and lethal threats, Canadians look on and appear not quite to applaud the government's performance as confirmed by an Angus Reid Institute national poll establishing that nine in ten Canadians view diplomatic tensions between the two countries seriously, giving no credit for handling finesse to Canada.

According to David Mulroney, a former ambassador to China, events have played out demonstrating that no return to the diplomacy of the past between Canada and China is now feasible. "The illusion dies hard, but we've got to let it die", he stressed.  That may make eminently good sense, given the hardball China is playing attempting to force Canada to play by its rules, not Canada's, but somehow the message hasn't got through to the Liberal government whose leader remains determined to forge a relationship with China through succeeding in a free trade deal.

Naive beyond belief, Justin Trudeau still cannot seem to imagine that China wouldn't jump at the opportunity to boost its credentials internationally by joining the touchy-feely, virtue-signalling that Trudeau is so fond of, to accept a comprehensive free trade deal including gender and labour rights. The official opposition in Parliament speaks of the government having "no coherent" China strategy, and that sounds about right. Conservative foreign affairs critic Erin O'Toole emphasized Trudeau's eagerness to forge his political legacy, wilfully oblivious to the powers that President Xi Jinping awarded himself.

The "rah-rah-rah Team Canada approach", he asserts, gave China the impression that "hey, we're growing as sort of their best friend within the Western alliance". Perhaps it's as simple as Justin Trudeau bedazzled with envy that Xi skillfully consolidated power lifting presidential term limits to launch himself as "president for life", taking his cue from similarly successful gambits by Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan whose autocracies Xi is doing double duty on. Just as Trudeau spoke with frank admiration of the capability of a totalitarian government being able to 'turn on a dime', his unspoken longing for a similar constitutional change in Canada to anoint himself in like manner resonates.

Huawei has been banned in the U.S. because of security fears of open entry to Chinese government intrusions piggy-backing on the high speed next-generation wireless Internet technology expediting intrusion. Infamously the Chinese government can call upon any of its worldwide-linked giant corporations to heed the call of advancing the Communist Party's best interests. Two other "Five Eyes" security allies, New Zealand and Australia have locked Huawei out of their high speed network upgrades, while Britain, the last remaining member, is considering following suit.

Justin Trudeau invokes "evidence-based" recommendations from Canadian security experts, consulting "experts around the world to evaluate how -- to keep Canadians safe, make sure that our data is safe, make sure that our secure communications are secure, but also that we're taking on the best technology in the world at affordable prices"; leaving the door slightly ajar for Huawei Technologies, for, he emphasized, the Huawei decision must not be approached with a "political mindset", dear me, no! Hear that, David Mulroney?

justinpjtrudeau

"We’ve gotten ourselves into a difficult situation. Had we made the decision on the 5G when everybody else did, we wouldn’t be the lone person standing out. We would’ve survived this thing and we would have been part of the wave that did this before."
"Whenever a situation is delayed, you’re going to get yourself into situations like this, and I think the government could have done a lot better."
Andy Ellis, a former assistant director of operations, CSIS