Denuclearizing North Korea

"If you think the North Koreans would revolt or the regime would collapse because of sanctions, you don't know anything about the North Koreans."
"These are people who survived the famine by eating weeds and even talk proudly about it."
Kang Mi-jin, North Korean defector, South Korea

"I can feel they [the Korean public] are not satisfied with the government, and if the authorities cannot resolve the sanctions problem, such dissatisfaction will go on and on."
"They have lost the [peoples'] loyalty toward the regime."
Terry, Chinese trader

"Once we start talking, the United States will know that I am not a person to launch nuclear weapons at South Korea, the Pacific or the United States."
If we maintain frequent meetings and build trust with the United States and receive promises for an end to the war and a non-aggression treaty, then why would we need to live in difficulty by keeping our nuclear weapons?"
"Some say that we are terminating facilities that are not functioning, but you will see that they are in good condition."
Kim Jong Un, North Korean President

An earthquake expert presents evidence of a seismic event at the nuclear test site near Mount Mantapsan in North Korea      Credit:  AP

"They imply a phased process with reciprocal concessions."
"It is not clear that the Trump administration will accept that kind of protracted program."
Adam Mount, senior defence analyst, Federation of American Scientists

South Korean President Moon Jae-in really believes that a breakthrough in relations has occurred between Seoul and Pyongyang, the love-in between himself and North Korean President Kim Jong Un on Friday at Panmunjom was a demonstration of warmth, trust and yearning. On his part, in any event; it is generally acknowledged that Kim loves game-playing as much as he enjoys pushing limits and there is no ignoring the fact that the North established a reputation of gaming the South and the U.S. in previous attempts to persuade the Kim dynasty to surrender its nuclear ambitions.

On previous occasions it did so, exhibiting in the process a level of authentic, believable commitment, mothballing its nuclear research, only to soon afterward fire it up again, taking up where it left off, after accepting the promised international aid to lift the North out of dire economic and social straits. Gaming the gullible West just as the Islamic Republic of Iran has repeatedly done, then in stealth resuming its research under cover of a signed and sealed agreement otherwise.

There is little resemblance to logic but much cognitive dissonance for the West to now believe that North Korea, after expending time, energy, lucre and secret intelligence and technological exchanges in establishing the reality of nuclear success paired with the engineering technology required to succeed in producing ICBMs, that it would be prepared to surrender all of it now, set it aside permanently as a sacrifice to achieve peace between it and its neighbour and the international community.

Before and after images show the Punggye-ri test site where on September 3, 2017, North Korea claimed to have conducted the underground explosion of a hydrogen bomb Credit: AFP/Planet

This is a regime, after all, which failed to be deterred by robust threats by the U.S. administration of full-blast Trump, going on to test its latest, most successful nuclear device and ballistic missiles in full provocation mode. As for pressure brought to bear by more seriously-imposed sanctions, even those supported by China, reports surface of witnessed border trade where tungsten, lead, zinc, copper and gold concentrates, banned for export under UN sanctions are spirited into China.

In return, nightly transports are smuggled into North Korea carrying sugar, flour, fertilizers and other living necessities in exchange for the Chinese-sought natural resources. Factories in North Korea may have been shuttered and fishermen leaving their boats unattended while military units resort to charcoal-engine vehicles for transport, but shortages aside, vital consumer prices remain stable and no food shortages loom in the near future, according to North Korean defectors.

Electricity doesn't appear lacking where street lights are kept on all night in Pyongyang according to South Korean journalists on a recent visit. Everyone seems equipped with a cellphone, and women appeared in fashionable dresses, far more than previously. "We have seen no big disruption in markets yet that could be attributed to sanctions", according to Jiru Ishimaru, operating Asia Press, a website based in Japan monitoring North Korea. "North Korean markets  have proved quite resilient."

Perhaps it's likelier that Kim is enjoying his little cat-and-mouse game. The nuclear installation that he claims will be shuttered will indeed be, since the mountain under which it was built has been utterly destabilized by the succession of nuclear blasts set off for test purposes, resulting in quakes, requiring that a new nuclear installation be built, in a less environmentally disruptive area of the North to enable it to resume its nuclear program.

Denuclearizing North Korea? Doesn't seem all that likely.

The nuclear tests have taken place in a system of tunnels dug below Mount Mantap, near the Punggye-ri site.