Rewarding Tehran

"A comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran is in all our interests. Both sides now need to work intensively to bridge the remaining differences. That will mean some tough choices if we are to reach what would be a historic deal."
Philip Hammond, British Foreign Secretary

"The agreement being formulated… sends a message that there is no price for aggression and, on the contrary, that Iran’s aggression is to be rewarded."

"The moderate and responsible countries in the region, especially Israel and also many other countries, will be the first to be hurt by this agreement [which will pave the way] to an Iranian nuclear arsenal."

"One cannot understand that when forces supported by Iran continue to conquer more ground in Yemen, in Lausanne they are closing their eyes to this aggression."

"This deal, as it appears to be emerging, bears out all of our fears -- and even more than that. The Iran-Lausanne-Yemen axis is very dangerous to humanity and must be stopped." 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

 

Antey-2500 anti-ballistic missile system (Photo from wikipedia.org)

The most powerful foreign ministers in the world converged on Lausanne, hoping to see some headway in the negotiations by the P5+1 and Tehran. As a sign of confidence in the proceedings, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov left early, preferring not to waste his valuable time any longer, suggesting that if some advances were made he would return to the venue.

The U.S. strives on the surface to ensure that Iran's scientists would require a year to produce weapons grade uranium in amounts sufficient to produce one nuclear bomb. Iran has magnanimously agreed to sacrifice a third of its 9,909 operational centrifuges and to export almost all of its 7.9 tons of low-enriched uranium. Except, really, by agreeing to reduce its centrifuges to 6,000 it still has substantial leeway, and it has in fact, not agreed to the export to Russia of its uranium.

Crossed messages, that kind of thing; interpreted another way, Iran's usual mode of raising trust in its sacred word of honour. For the watered-down consent of Tehran to inadequate guarantees, the Iranian negotiators believe they have the right to demand an immediate lifting of sanctions; sign deal, obtain immediate relief.

"We're getting to the final hours where people have really got to ask what their red lines are -- and if they're really red lines", noted a diplomat in Lausanne. Of course the U.S. and other members of the Security Council team plus Germany prefer a progressive removal of caps on Iranian progress after ten years. Limits on R & D for Iran of centrifuges remain unresolved.

Its latest prototype centrifuge is capable of enriching uranium at 16 times the speed of its current  model. Negotiators intend to see that research to increase the speed of producing weapons-grade uranium is curtailed, and that, once limits on the country's programs have been lifted. As for that other hotly contested issue: Iran remains resistant to attempts to allow inspections proceed to ensure verification.

Ideally, sanctions would be fully lifted after a decade of proven compliance. But as the old saying goes it isn't going to happen, and mostly because Iran will continue to balk at permitting free inspections and verification to ensure that discovery of their hidden agenda and production capabilities never see the light of day until Tehran feels the time is right; that would be when they've succeeded in their nuclear aspirations.

It's their !gotcha! game.

This 2011 photo shows Iran's heavy water nuclear facility near the city of Arak, one of several sites that would be impacted by a landmark deal with world powers being negotiated this week in Switzerland. (Photo: Hamid Foroutan, AP)