Judging The Threat Level

"If I wanted, in two days I could have Russian troops not only in Kyiv, but also in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw and Bucharest."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

"[Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko]: One of the most cynical acts of treachery in the modern history.
"Over the last month, Ukrainians have shown that they have the courage to stand up. We will never obey or bend to the aggressor. We are ready to fight."

President Petro Poroshenko at the White House. Photo Ludo Segers

"If you ever ask again 'Who will come to help?' you'll know the answer; the NATO alliance, including the armed forces of the United States of America. We'll be here for Estonia. We will be here for Latvia. We will be here for Lithuania."
U.S. President Barack Obama

The remarks of the Russian president were made over a series of telephone conversations with Mr. Poroshenko in discussions related to the current ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. He was pleased to issue as well warnings to Mr. Poroshenko of what might befall him if he put too much faith in the European Union. Russia was capable, he said, of exerting influence to create a "blocking minority" among EU member states.

Ukraine last Tuesday ratified a historic association agreement with the EU as a precursor to eventual full EU membership. And, resulting from Moscow's continued support of the ethnic Russian Ukrainian revolt and attempts to pull eastern Ukraine completely into Russia's governing orbit as Novorossia, the European Union saw fit to announce additional sanctions against Russia, relating to its energy, financial and arms sectors.

As for President Obama's declaration of fealty to NATO's security guarantee in Article V of its founding treaty, stating "an attack on one is an attack on all", this notably does not include Ukraine, not yet a member of NATO. There is sympathy aplenty, and there are responses to Russian belligerence, but Vladimir Putin appears assured in his evaluation that NATO and nor the United States is prepared to launch themselves into what would effectively become World War III.

Similar threats were made to Jose Manuel Barroso, by Vladimir Putin. The President of the European Commission repeated what he was told by Mr. Putin: "If I want to, I can take Kyiv in two weeks", as reported on a EU memorandum of a meeting between Mr. Barroso and Mr. Poroshenko last week in Kyiv when Mr. Barroso divulged the Putin threat.

The potential of threat turned to action by Russia making any move to 'protect' its ethnic Russian citizens in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and Romania would cause a reaction whose direction would be difficult to fully apprehend. NATO members could find themselves in a situation where they would be doing considerably more than issuing firm opposition and the imposition of punishing sanctions against an aggressively war-mongering Russia.

Ukraine? Not so much. In Washington, President Poroshenko remarked that "blankets, night vision goggles are also important, but one cannot win the war with blankets". Immediately afterward the White House announced $46-million for security aid to Ukraine, sans lethal aid. The security includes body armour, helmets, vehicles and night vision goggles. No blankets.