Russian Peacekeeping Initiatives

Vladimir Putin at 14 July welcoming ceremony in Brasilia -- Photo EP

Russian Peacekeeping Initiatives

"We're not going to guess what's on Russia's mind, but we can see what Russia is doing on the ground -- and that is of great concern."
"Russia has amassed around 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's eastern border. [NATO is concerned that Moscow might use] the pretext of a humanitarian or peacekeeping mission as an excuse to send troops into eastern Ukraine."
Oana Lungescu, NATO spokesperson

NATO and the United States both now warn that such a troop invasion by the Kremlin directly into eastern Ukraine appears imminent. The number of Russian troops assembled on the border with Ukraine has recently doubled to 20,000 with a week of military exercises ongoing. The threat of a Russian intervention in Ukraine, stresses U.S. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel now is "a reality".

"When you see the buildup of Russian troops and the sophistication of those troops, the training of those troops, the heavy military equipment that's being put along that border, of course it's a reality, it's a threat, it's a possibility -- absolutely."
Chuck Hagel, U.S. Secretary of Defence

NATO was alerted by Russia's call at the United Nations for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to give warning that the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk were hovering "on the brink of a humanitarian disaster", calling upon the international community to "mobilize towards immediate assistance". As much a set-up as can be imagined by any who feel they have reason to suspect Moscow of connivance with the separatists they spurred to action, creating the disaster.

A file picture dated 14 July 2014 shows Russian President Vladimir Putin reviewing a welcome ceremony at Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil as concern grows that Russia is contemplating invasion in eastern Ukraine: photo - EPA

- See more at: http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/178151,Invasion-fears-raised-after-Russian-troop-build-up-on-Ukraine-border#sthash.T16eDzmk.dpuf

Russian President Vladimir Putin has negotiated himself into a rather awkward corner. His actions have been transparent though vigorously denied as being the fulcrum turning the Ukrainian ethnic Russian secession movement in eastern Ukraine. Its unabashed move to grasp and own the Crimean peninsula clearly demonstrated its guile and international lawlessness in its bid to return to the days of Soviet oppression of neighbouring states.

Now, with the imposition of more stringent EU and North American sanctions and the military advances realized by Ukrainian government forces closing in on Russian-backed rebel strongholds, and the rebels calling upon the Kremlin to save their revolution, while Russia is beginning to reel under the impact of the sanctions and its own faltering economy, Mr. Putin feels inclined to act, since he has little left to lose.

In Donetsk the suburbs have been shelled, causing the rebels to cry foul, even while Andriy Lysenko speaking for Kyiv's National Security and Defence Council insists the Ukrainian military doesn't bomb civilian areas. Two loud explosions were heard and then the sound of jets flying over Donetsk. Where the city's airport has been destroyed and the rebels don't possess planes. "We heard and saw aircraft flying overhead", said Olev Tsarev, a separatist leader.

"We heard the explosions and we saw the craters. The Ukrainian media and leadership claim there was no attack but we are here and see what happens. And we know that Martians did not fly in to bomb us." Nor has Russia supplied them with arms, tanks and missiles.

The streets of Donetsk are deserted, power cuts and lack of water make life miserable. Mr. Tsarev claimed that less than half of Donetsk's million population now remains in the city, most having fled the violence and instability.

Vladimir Putin has some arrows remaining in his quiver. With his economy on the brink of recession, he has mandated pain for his opponents with retaliatory sanctions, banning food imports from Canada, Ukraine, Poland, Romania and Australia. Western diplomats speak of a Putin who has become increasingly "erratic" of late.

Under the pretext of a humanitarian mission, a U.S. Defence Department authority stated, invasion was a "very real option. And should Putin decide, he could do that with little or no notice. We just don't know what he's thinking." Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, visiting Russian troops on 'peacekeeping exercises' in central Russia has cautioned them to "expect the unexpected".

"The world has changed, and it has changed drastically", he said portentously. "As you know from previous examples, including in this brigade, peacekeeping units can be called upon unexpectedly."