Rude Awakenings

"It is no secret that eastern allies argue that they need a stronger NATO presence in their territory as a kind of deterrent so that any potential aggressor would not even think of attacking our eastern allies. We are now in the process of considering different options."
"It's a bit too early to say how or where such reinforcements could take place. Taking into account the new security situation in Europe, we have to adapt. We have to improve our readiness and responsiveness because we have seen Russia being capable to act very quickly."
"I can confirm that we have reinforced our naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean. Further movement will very much depend on the security situation. And you have seen individual allies deploy ships into the Black Sea. So, all in all, you see a greater naval presence in the Black Sea."
"We haven't seen any evidence of withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border. It is now the third statement from Putin, and still no withdrawal has taken place."
"Clear evidence would be to see Russian troops move in a meaningful way away from the Ukrainian border Of course, we have satellite images and other ways of demonstrating that. If we saw a meaningful withdrawal I would be the first person to welcome it because that would be an important contribution to de-escalating the crisis."
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen

An Orthodox priest tries to stop clash protesters the police in the center of Kiev   Picture: AFP

Mr. Fogh Rasmussen would like NATO members to establish permanent bases in the Baltic States; in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. Failing that, to establish a regular rotation of troops within those countries to firm up NATO presence on a permanent status, in reflection of a suddenly changed European reality. Russia's seizure of Crimea and all its assets, summarily depriving Ukraine of its fleet and infrastructure has alarmed its other neighbours in the east who visualize a similar Russian assault coming their way.

Although Vladimir Putin once again pledged his intention that Russian troops would withdraw from the border with Ukraine, he seems to be playing a cat-and-mouse game of intimidation with Ukraine, and defiance of NATO demands. No one has seen any indication that there has been a troop withdrawal of any meaningful proportions; not the withdrawal of armed men nor their vehicles, tanks and planes. The 40,000 troops that were massed on the border remain along the border at a high level of readiness.

That level of readiness to be realized into almost instant action should the Kremlin make the decision that the time has arrived to invade eastern Ukraine. Their very presence augers preparation for an offensive action. The destabilization of Ukraine continues apace, with Russia hypocritically warning the country's temporary government in Kyiv that should it continue to move to violently oppose the thugs that call themselves pro-Russia, to reclaim government buildings in the cities they have declared independent from Kyiv, Russia would have no option but to 'protect' ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

Moscow has sent in their secret agents representing their intelligence services, well schooled in infiltration and disruption. Where no pending crisis existed, upon their arrival, one speedily resulted; they primed the pump of violent dissatisfaction with the government in Kyiv, describing them as fascists and gangsters; in fact precisely the description that could now be applied to the thugs representing Moscow's interests in the area. Once the manufactured 'crisis' presents itself, Russian agents proffer advice to separatists and provide weapons, and aid in the organization of violence.

The massive buildup of troops along Ukraine's eastern border acts as a disincentive through obvious intimidation tactics for Ukrainian authorities to take the initiative in military actions against the pro-Russian separatists. When Ukraine takes its courage and determination in hand, to preserve the remainder of its territory intact from Russia's grasp, a further pretext for intervention on the part of Russia presents itself.

Over the past five years and more Russia has invested heavily in upgraded armaments. They are better equipped now with the machinery of war than ever, boasting the development of high-tech and far-reaching missiles, rocketry and allied equipment along with a better trained military to complement the arms. With the fall of the Soviet Union there appeared several decades of relaxation of the vigil that once occupied the minds and strategies of the West in dealing with an abusively aggressive Kremlin.

Latterly, Russia was recognized as no longer presenting as a threat to the stability of Europe. In one fell swoop, with a resurgent military mindset Russia has presented itself as a prospective threat to former allies as Moscow now boldly reserves 'the right' to intervene in the affairs, the sovereignty and the possessions of other countries.