Pivoting On A Crisis

"Today we have a situation in which Russia ... is highly unpredictable. There is something about the current crisis that suggests Russia is a rogue state, with all that would imply for deterrence and reassurance of allies."
Ian Lesser, senior director, foreign and security policy, German Marshall Fund, United States

"What I am thinking about now is, is NATO correctly positioned and is it at the right state of responsiveness?"
"If we expect that Mr. Putin is going to be in charge of Russia for many years, if we are going to see this kind of exercise behaviour in the future, are we prepared to react to the next snap exercise that does cross a border to impose its will on another sovereign nation in a different part of Europe? That's what I've been doing a lot of thinking about."
NATO supreme commander in Europe, U.S. air force Gen. Philip Breedlove

"I think NATO drifted away from its core mission. It took on an array of global missions that proved to be very challenging for it. Now it's being forced to do what it should have been doing all along, and that's deterrence."
Michael Brown, dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University

A combat vehicle with a Russian flag makes its way towards the town of Kramatorsk   Picture: AP

In May of 2012, which represents the last time NATO member leaders met in Chicago, the talk was all about forging a "true strategic partnership between NATO and Russia". In the spirit of the past being the past, and forging on to a new world order of shared values and mutual trust, that would have represented a break from suspicion, imperialism and conflict. Now, it's been relegated to the dustheap of failure.

NATO has no option but to admit that Russia under Vladimir Putin has rediscovered the allure of east European hegemony, extending its influence, intimidating the faint of heart who would prefer to look elsewhere for alliances, the memory of the last unlamented ones still keenly uppermost in the fears of those who don't relish thoughts of the past.

Pro-Russian people walk towards the airport in KramatorskPicture: Alexander Ermochenko/AP

"Effective defence and protection of our allies remains a core task for NATO. It's been the essence of our alliance since it was established 65 years ago", reminded NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, musing over the alliance's journey from the past to the present, seeing itself coming full circle in its relationship with the newly-geographic-omnivorous Russian federation.

"Another task is to be able to participate in international crisis management, and we have also defined cooperative security as one of our core tasks", he observed, clearly alluding to the fact that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, though other eastern European countries now newly alarmed over proceedings in Ukraine have recently been made members.

There's no end of alerts for the U.S.-led alliance, apart from its current focus on addressing Vladimir Putin's military and hegemonic ambitions. Challenges abound from cyberterrorism, threats to energy supplies, armed Islamist fanatics and the alarms and distractions that continue to pop up in an evolving world of growing nationalistic fervour and religious fanatacism, exacerbated by virulent sectarian conflict.

Russia's armed aggression in Crimea and the Kremlin's continuing focus on military pressure gravitating out from Moscow to its former satellites present an alarming security and defence environment that must be addressed. How to react after years of focus on the Middle East, Africa and Afghanistan is the question looking for an answer.

In light of Russia's delight in swift mobilization of troops in 'snap exercises', where the Kremlin's intentions focus the mind and confuse the landscape.

NATO's Baltic air patrols have been reinforced, AWACS surveillance planes have been dispatched over Poland and Romania, warships have been established in the Baltic and Black seas, and 600 American army paratroopers have been sent to Poland, along with a smaller contingent of Canadians on temporary deployment.

Discussions are set to take place at the alliance's summit in Wales the coming September when leaders of NATO's 28 member-states must discuss long-term response measures, the repositioning of NATO resources, the retooling of its purpose, and its reactions to a challenging Moscow. A start, according to General Breedlove on his visit to Canada this week, was for national leaders to consider the permanent stationing of alliance forces in eastern Europe.

"I think this is something that we have to consider, and we will tee this up for discussion through the leaderships of our nations and see where that leads", he said from Ottawa. Effectively that means that NATO countries which had felt confident in ratcheting back their investment in their national defence, military acquisitions and troop reductions, will have to re-think that now-unworkable strategy and beef up their spending.

The U.S. military drawdown that began in the 1990s with the reduction of tensions between the Soviet Union and the West, will now come under fierce scrutiny. Where over 420,000 uniformed military personnel were present in Europe at the height of the Cold War, the American military presence in Europe plummeted to about 68,000 active-duty personnel of all branches. The last 22 American battle tanks remaining in Europe were shipped back to the U.S. a year ago.