Possession Is 9/10ths of the Law

"They showed up on Friday and a captain of Russian forces offered to 'co-operate in guarding the base'. We told them we didn't need their co-operation."
"On Saturday they came back, disabled the control tower and parked vehicles on the runway. We never received an order to use our weapons."
"We are professional soldiers on both sides. If we get the order to fire from our political masters, we will."
Lt.-Col. Nikolai Gavrish, Dzhonkoi base commander

Unarmed Ukrainian soldiers march towards Russian-controlled positions at the Belbek airbase. Photo: Getty Images
 

At the Border Guards base at Perevalnoye southeast of Simferopol, a face off between the Ukrainians within the base and a Russian force continues. "They asked us to lay down our arms", explained a Ukrainian major. How had they responded to the request, he was asked. He replied with a raised middle finger. "We're not giving them up."

On March 30, the Crimeans are set to vote on whether to become an autonomous state in confederation with Ukraine. There is no mention of secession or annexation by Russia. The vote is not technically considered to be a referendum on independence. But it is meant to test the waters. And given the preponderance of support for alliance with Russia, even absorption into Russia by a majority of Crimeans, it is a bellwether.

The Kremlin has promised a significant financial gift of support to the government of Sergei Aksyonov, the newly installed pro-Russian prime minister of the region. This follows a pattern already established by Moscow with South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Transdniestria, all breakaway states owing allegiance to Moscow. It's not quite what President Putin, envisaging a return of the old Soviet Union hoped for, but it's something for him to settle on.

In the Crimea the process of becoming a state proffering its allegiance to whomever it wishes has been initiated with the Sunday defection of Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky, when Crimea was enabled to celebrate that it had a ready-made navy. The Crimean government has announced it captured the Belbek airbase, and now it has an air force as well, with four functioning jets out of the 49 they claim to have taken possession of.

Russia is paying a price it possibly might not have imagined in Vladimir Putin's aggressive determination to take possession of that part of the Ukraine that is of especial cultural and heritage value along with its Russian-speaking population, its manufacturing and trade usefulness. It won't have lost everything, after all. And after all, isn't the Crimea Russian, really a part of Russia? The question answers itself.

Where there is gain there is also pain. In Moscow the main RTS Index plummeted 12%, losing $58.4-billion of shareholder value. The ruble has plunged, and Russia's central bank had to raise interest rates on a temporary basis from 5.5% to 7%, sure to produce that 'ouch' factor for Russians who support their president and deplore the nastiness of the EU, Canada, U.S. pile-up on their country.

BELBEK, UKRAINE - MARCH 03: Military trucks with Russian licence plates drive through a checkpoint manned by pro-Russian militants on March 3, 2014 near Belbek, Ukraine. Tensions on Crimea are running high following deadlines reportedly given by the Russian military for Ukrainian soldiers at Crimean military bases to surrender. Heavily-armed soldiers who are not displaying identifying insignia but are widely believed to be Russians have blockaded several Ukrainian military bases across Crimea. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)