Ukraine in Transition

"There is no official attitude expressed here yet, not a word from Putin and no declarations from the Russian parliament. The feeling of the political class and experts is that Ukraine enters another state of political, economic and social crisis. As for talks about separatism, they are going on everywhere in Crimea and Donbas. But it is up to the Ukrainian people to decide."
Andrei Klimov, deputy head, committee for international affairs, Russian Duma

"Yanukovych's tragedy is that he tried to sit on two stools and was left without any stool to sit on. Moscow even believed that Ukraine was leaving and began to say goodbye."
"There is a split now in Moscow on the governmental level. There is an understanding that Ukraine is a big state and a lever to have influence in Europe. But the other half of the political class thinks: 'Once Ukraine is gone, it's gone'".
Andrei Suzdaltsev, deputy dean, world politics, Moscow's Higher School of Economics

"Russia is not planning to separate Crimea or any other region from Ukraine. There are no such projects here."
Konstantin Zatulin, director, Moscow's Centre for International Studies

A swift passage of events from protest to crisis. Reminiscent to some degree of what occurred in Syria and is still ongoing but much accelerated in timing and consequences. With President Viktor Yanukovych and his cronies completely routed, taking shelter in the country's east, where support is dependable for alliance with Russia as opposed to alliance with the European Union.

A charge of mass murder sworn out against Mr. Yanukovych, and a nationwide manhunt launched.

Much grinding of teeth in Russia, given their interrelated complexities of the past, their mutual dependence of the present, and the new direction that events have taken those relations and dependencies toward. In the Crimea the disputed presidency is seen as a hostile insult among the Russian majority citizens. And Russia is hugely dependent on anchorage for its Black Sea fleet.

If the Kremlin were to feel disposed to enter the fray with its military it is Sevastopol and in fact
the entire Crimea that was once theirs that would be in dispute; the secession that many anticipate and fear. Tens of thousands of enraged Ukrainians of Russian descent in Sevastopol denounced the "terrorists and bandits" of the armed revolt ending with Mr. Yanukovych's speedy departure from Kyiv.

Russian tricolours, not Ukrainian flags are in evidence. The populace has called upon Russian President Vladimir Putin to protect their interests, and his. Cheers were raised to applaud the return of the "Berkut" special forces to Sevastopol from Kyiv where they distinguished themselves in the spastic violence that left almost one hundred people dead. In their black ski masks and body armour, they are clad like the brutal goons that they are.

The contested Crimea, until 1954 part of the Russian Federation, was generously handed to Ukraine by Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev who was reputed to have been drunk at the time. At the time he was also a native Ukrainian, ceding territory as a goodwill gesture to his own patrimonial heritage. Russian warships operating in the Mediterranean need the Black Sea port to consolidate their influence in the Middle East.

Russia has, on the face of that unmistakable 'writing on the wall', withdrawn its billions representing a persuasive emergency loan. And Ukraine is urging the West to step up to match their vague promises with hard cash to help it pass through the swamp of financial collapse. Meanwhile, the country's passage into its future in the midst of political, economic and social uncertainty represents a painful crucible of change that Ukrainians must confront and surmount.