Concerns and Suspicions

"NATO has stated repeatedly that it does not view Russia as an adversary. Last year at the Chicago Summit, NATO leaders reiterated their desire to see a true strategic partnership between NATO and Russia. NATO is committed to the principles laid out in the Founding Act of the NATO-Russia Council, and works productively with Russia across a range of issues of common concern."
Official, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Brussels

"We have never underestimated the role of nuclear weapons ... as a 'great equalizer'."
[Weapons developed in the U.S. under the] "prompt global strike" program trouble Russia. Compelling it to reserve the right of nuclear weapons use as a "great equalizer" to reduce the likelihood of aggression.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin

A Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile is launched from the northern Plesetsk cosmodrome in Russia. A Russian Cabinet member says Moscow has reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional strike. Wednesday's comments by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin carried by Russian news agencies reflected Moscow's concern with prospective U.S. weapons. (AP Photo/Str)

It might appear stale by now, since it is an issue of fairly long standing, but Russian-U.S. relations have been impaired by the disputes over the U.S.-led missile shield installations. Washington's repeated assurances to Moscow that the missile depots in eastern Europe that make Russia so dreadfully nervous about their potential (perceived) purpose, have had no effect in stemming Russian suspicions.

Even the U.S. decision to try to assuage the Kremlin's fears over the placement of the silos in Poland and the Czech Republic by the American decision to withdraw from the missile defence agreement with those countries was unsuccessful in persuading Russia that there was no intention on the part of the Americans to threaten it, succeeding only in persuading leaders in Warsaw and Prague that the U.S. couldn't be trusted to keep its word.

It has now been revealed that new 'conventional' weapons developed by the United States under their "prompt global strike" program, which would be capable of striking targets anywhere in the world within an hour and with deadly precision has emerged as a (paranoid?) concern for Moscow. Russia's military doctrine subscribes to the potential of pre-emption nuclear weapons use in fear of an incoming nuclear attack.

And in direct reference to that doctrine, Mr. Rogozin informed Russian lawmakers that those who "experiment with non-nuclear strategic weapons", should bear in mind that "if we come under attack, we will undoubtedly use nuclear weapons in certain situations to defend our territory and state interests." These statements were carried by Russian news agencies, and clearly deliberately, to issue as a caution to the United States.

During the Cold War, the United States subscribed to the very same strategy; not ruling out the first-use of nuclear weapons for fear of an overwhelming conventional attack on western Europe by Soviet forces. Mr. Rogozin also took the opportunity to announce Russia's own determination to develop a Russian version of the "prompt global strike" weapons, without providing details.

According to what is known about American plans they are inclusive of the modification of existing nuclear-armed missiles to enable them to carry conventional warheads. The design of new vehicles capable of travelling at least five times the speed of sound is also on the ambitious development agenda. And clearly Russia isn't eager to be left behind in these new advanced technologies.

As far as Russian officials are concerned, though such new technical advances in American weapons would not fall under any restrictions, they would result in combat efficiency comparable to nuclear weapons. As such they should be included in any possible reduction talks of nuclear arms scheduled for the future.

President Vladimir Putin has pledged his intention to continue a weapons modernization program with the further intent to expand Russia's military presence in the Arctic. Making no mention of Canada's ambitions to have the North Pole declared in Canada's favour of possession and control, Mr. Putin pointed out the U.S. navy presence there as one of the reasons behind its own buildup.

Russia focuses on the fact that just 15 to 16 minutes is all it takes for U.S. missiles to reach Moscow from a submarine located in the Barents Sea region. Proximity equals potential and opportunity and is worrisome. A slow return to the Cold War era?