Democratic Egypt

"In the last elections candidates frequently accused their competitors of not being Islamic or religious enough, questioning how many times they pray and things like that. So there could be too much of a focus on the religious questions that are so important to Egypt's political future.
"Now Egypt has several consolidated groups vying for seats, which means the elections will be much more competitive. It'll be interesting to see whether or not that competition and split support will lead to a parliament that is more representative of Egyptian society at large."
Daniel Tanavam, research associate, Project on Middle East Democracy, formerly consultant for Egypt's Constituent Assembly

The Salafist Al Nour party received 27.8% of the vote that brought Islamists to power in Egypt's parliamentary general election in 2011. That complemented the Freedom and Justice Party of the Muslim Brotherhood's's 37.5% vote. The Muslim Brotherhood's popularity among the voting public has seen a setback since President Mohammed Morsi granted himself special powers.

And the Salafists have seen a split in their ranks.

The ultra-conservative Al-Nour Party has been split into two parties; infighting and membership defections were seen as Younis Makhyoum, a cleric, was selected as its leader by the party's general assembly. The former party chief, Emad Abdel Ghafour, considered more pragmatic, has left Al-Nour to form his more 'moderate' Salafi party, Al-Watah.

"Shafour framed the issue as one where the party's politics and political decision making was being dominated by religious clerics who were not as willing to compromise, not as interested in working with the presidency and not interested in working with liberal political parties", explained Daniel Tanava.

Mr. Makhyoum had been a member of the Islamist-dominated Constituent Assembly which had succeeded in writing Egypt's draft constitution which had the effect of creating a huge polarizing situation complete with deadly street protests. It passed, regardless, by a 64% 'yes' vote.  That referendum, however, saw a mere 33% of voters participating. Leftists and secularists refused to participate.

Al-Nour is specifically and solely invested in ensuring that strict Islamist Sharia law be implemented in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood, sharing many of the same fundamentalist beliefs seems more prepared to deviate from strict implementation in the interests of political pragmatism. The kind of Islamic law beloved of the Salafis insists on gender segregation, punishes theft by cutting off the hands of thieves, and rejects the charging of interest on loans.

President Morsi is engaged in an attempt to persuade the International Monetary Fund to loan his country $4.8-billion to get it over a serious financial deficit.  Egypt's economy is in free fall.  Its once-lucrative tourism program is in shatters; foreign investors are sitting on their investment funds, reluctant to re-enter an uncertain market. The Egyptian middle class is joining the ranks of the poor, crime is on the rise and no solutions are presenting themselves.

The response of the Salafis to President Morsi's practical plans to try to lift the country out of its financial impasse is clear enough: "Borrowing from abroad is usury", Mr. Makhyoun stated baldly. Such an agreement would have the effect of permitting "foreigners to interfere in our affairs". The implementation of austerity would be far more useful, as far as Mr. Makhyoun is concerned, in solving Egypt's economic woes.

"The conventional wisdom is that this will essentially divide the Salafi vote and reduce the number of Salafi members of parliament that win in the next election. But that might be a little too naive", offered Mr. Tavana. He speculates that voters who had formerly supported the Freedom and Justice Party, but who were offended by the last several months' controversies, might opt to vote instead for the new Al-Watan Salafist party.

"I think its crucial for the opposition to unite with a clear conception of where they want to take the country so they can institutionalize political competition in a way that's geared toward solving the country's problems", contended Mohammed Fadel, associate professor of Law at the University of Toronto, claiming that the country's future democratic direction is hugely dependent on organizing an effective opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood.

And good luck with that one.