Taliban, Renascent

It is beyond difficult not to think of Afghanistan as a lost cause.  A cause lost to its traditions of tribal antipathies, hostility to foreign intervention, endemic corruption among those with even a scintilla of power over others, war-lordism invested in harvesting the ill-gotten gains of opium-poppy production, the religious-social repression of women, and deep mistrust of one another. 

There is, furthermore, little to no cohesion in the greater population, no common goal that all the ethnic, tribal, sectarian groups rally around.

And there is the very real prospect of another final incursion of Taliban to again mount their rule over the country.  The battle of the Northern Alliance seeking to unseat the Taliban and only succeeding with the assistance of ISAF troops sanctioned by the United Nations brought about by the Taliban sheltering al-Qaeda, is being undone. 

Not, however, by anything that the NATO diplomats and member-country troops failed to do, but because this is Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan poverty, illiteracy, innumeracy, helplessness are legion.  And Islamism is paramount in the mindsets of the population, their submission to the dictates of a religion that structures their lives from birth to death is complete.  Their mullahs inform them what they may do, and how they must behave in strict compliance to the culture that has evolved and the traditions deeply embedded within society.

Peace and order and good government may be what Afghans most yearn for, but it is utterly alien to their heritage and history.  Men who enlist in the national police and the military have little allegiance to the concept of 'national', and 'sovereign' and personal 'responsibility'.  There is no such tradition; the tradition embraces Islam and everything flows from what devout mullahs and brutal warlords permit.

The harshly unforgiving Islamic 'laws' imposed upon Afghanistan under Taliban rule followed the initial relief people felt at the conclusion of a slaughtering civil war that left the country exhausted and demoralized.  The brief period of security with the rule of the Taliban followed a prolonged misery of existence under the Taliban which profited them and penalized all others.

Because Afghans have an aversion to the losing side and a great attraction to the winning side they will welcome the return of the Taliban, planning to re-establish themselves and undo all the enlightened work of the international community in working frantically to make a functioning country out of a shambles of a country. 

The very moment the transfer of power is completed - from the foreign 'occupiers' whose diplomats, human rights groups, volunteer foreign civilians, and militaries on leaving will be abandoned and forgotten - the Taliban will triumph on their unopposed return and they will take up where they were so rudely left off with the invading armies of united foreigners clamouring for vengeance for 9/11.

The Afghan government that most Afghan hold in contempt as weak, corrupt and useless will not welcome another civil war.  "Unfortunately in Afghanistan, we do not have any political unity", mourned General Sayed Hussain Anwari, former Kabul and Herat provinces governor, recalling his own exploits during the last civil war.

He envisions the Taliban not wishing to share power and "the scenario changes and they come to power by force, there will be groups that won't go with the Taliban and the fighting will continue."  While another high-placed Afghan warns of the likelihood of the government collapsing, and a civil war erupting without a peace agreement.

Peace agreement?  The Taliban agreeing to share power?  Only, perhaps, with al-Qaeda, foreign to Afghanistan but sharing the requisite ideology of Islamism supreme leading toward a universal Caliphate.