Iran's "Resistance Economy"

"Everyone is losing; traders from Iran are losing because of the depreciating rial, and we're losing here because Iranians can't afford to buy our products any more.  These are our worst days."  Ahmed Mohammed Amin, Iranian trader in Dubai

Worst days?  Let's hope not.  We can be forgiven for anticipating that worse, much worse, is yet to come.  For the Islamic Republic of Iran's administration, that is.  It's a shame, to be sure, that 'worse' will also afflict the people of Iran, but this is, after all, their government that is responsible for the inflation they're suffering under and the increasing worthlessness of their rial.

The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei made a choice, an obdurate one, supported by his minions and the other religious fanatics at the helm of government.  It is nuclear, or nothing.  Nothing appears not to be an option for an administration whose ideology enshrined in the revolutionary constitution and the writing of the late Ayatollah Khomeni of seeking to establish "an Islamic state worldwide" cannot be compromised.

The achievement of a nuclear arsenal will help enormously to convince the uncommitted to radical Islamism that it would be to their advantage to join with the winning circle whose concern is to "export our revolution to the whole world".  This is a totalitarian state whose extraordinary vision is one that has never been hidden from plain view.  Its belligerent threats to the United States and the "Zionist entity" have been fairly explicit.

The United Nations' concerns led on by two-thirds of the UN Security Council, and the bulk of the Western democracies aided by the very real nuclear accomplishment timelines recognized by the International Atomic Energy Agency in condemning the Islamic Republic for its recalcitrance in coming to heel on its uranium enrichment which can have only one outcome are manifestly serious. 

Iran's continued defiance is also most certainly of serious concern.

So serious sanctions have taken their toll.  Its oil exports, critical to its continued operation as a state enterprise enabling the country to commence with its plans, have suffered greatly; to the tune of half their usual exports resulting in half their usual income.  International banking networks have been closed off to the regime.  Imported products are becoming rare; no one can afford them, the country cannot pay for them.

Consumer products are becoming difficult to obtain, and costly to purchase, impacting on the daily lives of Iranians.  The country's official inflation rate now stands at 25%.  Industry is suffering as a result of the rial's weakness, and jobs are being lost while living standards are being reduced.  The currency crisis has resulted from the sanctions, but also from the administration's clumsy handling of the crisis.

Iran is losing $8-billion in revenues every three months from the embargo on oil exports alone.  And a protest document has gathered thousands of signatures of those brave enough to have the administration see their names on a criticism of the government's performance.  "Confidence is linked to the fundamentals: how well the economy is doing and how well the government is managing the economy."

"It's a big political statement.  It's a way of saying to the government, "We don't believe that what you're doing is good for the economy."  Paola Subacchi head, international economics, Chatham House.

And should dissatisfaction with government reach a crisis point, where enough Iranians with clout and numbers come out to energetic and determined public protests, perhaps even the actions of the Republican Guard and the Basiji militias might not effectively shut down their purpose; the long-delayed push-back from the country's opposition to the rigid tyranny of the Ayatollahs is long overdue.