The More Things Change....

When it seemed as though finally some semblance of order and even peace was being restored to Afghanistan by the presence of NATO and ISAF forces, Afghans who had left the country under the chaos and oppression of the Taliban began to trickle back.  They saw hope for their country's future.  And they set up shop there, particularly in Kabul, demonstrating the depth of their commitment to the renewed opportunities by building new premises to ply their entrepreneurial trade in, building hotels and restaurants, and building themselves costly new homes.

They are now beginning to disinvest themselves.  The international aid that poured into the country has not been reflected on the ground.  It hasn't seemed to make much of a dent in the need for vital civil infrastructure in the country.  NATO members have pulled their military teams out of the country and more are preparing to do so, alongside the United States which still has a hundred thousand troops there, mostly training the new Afghan military and police, some 340,000-strong.

But because the allies prominently announced their intentions to leave, courteously supplying the Taliban and anyone else interested, with the actual dates of departure, a waiting game has ensued.  One not entirely without its own unexpected turn of events.  The insider attacks on foreign troops by Afghan police and military personnel, once rare, have accelerated notably and alarmingly.  The $3-billion in aid that President Hamid Karzai insists his government needs to support his country and its military is a form of blackmail, but difficult to defer.

"The Afghans are on the fence.  If they see there is a strong arm, they will side with the strong arm. Why do you think there are so many green-on-blue?  We told them we are leaving.  A lot of them are trying to buy their way back now, so they won't be decapitated when we go.  If we leave them on their own, the Taliban will come back in, exterminate anyone associated with the government.  Half those people in there [the government] know what is good for them, so they will assist them and say that they were always part of the movement."  ex-Canadian Army reserves, ex-French Foreign Legionnaire

Intimidation of the Afghan public, of the Afghan police and the military by the Taliban is the new political order for the day.  The Taliban know the day of departure, and so does the general population of Afghanistan.  They anticipate and they visualize and they worry frantically about their futures.  Women in particular have much to be concerned about.  But no one is immune to concern about what will occur with the withdrawal of NATO troops.

Perhaps what will briefly ensue will be a short-lived civil war.  A reflection of what occurred with the departure of Soviet military when it too had enough of Afghanistan after a ten-year conflict that settled nothing whatever in the USSR's attempt to sideline fundamentalist Islamism.  And that was followed by the installation of the Taliban, thanks in large part to the Government of Pakistan and its military and secret service.

And, just incidentally, to the United States whose CIA members were so helpful in providing arms and training to the Taliban whom they thought would rout the Soviets, and then biddably return to being good, patriotic Afghans.  And, in their own, inimitable way, they have.