A Study In Convoluted Extremes

What a formula for disaster. A country now teetering on the cusp of complete destabilization, one which has the great misfortune (that is, as it portends and pertains to the international community, let alone internally) to be comprised of a politically-fractured population, a surging tide of Islamism, and possessing nuclear proficiency - cemented with direly dreadful relations with its nearest neighbours.

India, faced with the very real prospect of a political melt-down in Pakistan, must be in a state of breathtakingly nervous apprehension. Bad enough its traditional relationship with its one-time provinces, and with the dreadful religious enmity exacerbated by ever-resurgent belligerence over ownership of Kashmir. Now, the very Pakistani politician with whom a brief grace of detente was achieved, is gone.

And the two major parties, each contending for leadership after a fractionated election no longer recognize much in common, with the final resignation of Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan can celebrate the end of its "dictatorship", but what now can it anticipate for its near future other than on one hand the ascension of authoritarian rule with the Pakistan Peoples Party or an Islamist regime with the Pakistan Muslim League.

With the rationale for their co-operation now evaporated, Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif do not really have all that much to work together for; one a determinedly secular, democracy-aspiring party, the other a renascent Islamist party, intent on re-introducing shariah law to the country. Unhappily it appears that a benevolent totalitarian government is in the offing; one that bodes ill for the geography.

As they circle one another for opportunity to each lay claim to and cement their superior position to govern, the underlying suspicion and hostility natural to each party begins to surface, and each can indulge in plotting to undo the other's aspirations. And in the background, the country's potential to achieve some modicum of political and social moderation dwindles.

The forces of Islamism surge triumphantly ahead. Little wonder, that, given the background of Saudi-fuelled madrassas flourishing there, to instill the concept of fundamentalist Islam and the jihad-inspired eschewing of any other influences in its surge to install the regime they violently espouse. Aided and effectively abetted by their very own Taliban streaming out of mountainous tribal border villages.

So their own home-grown terror groups, intent on suicide bombings to make their point, erodes the security of the country at large. How can they fail to succeed, in large part, given the encouragement and active assistance of Pakistan's own security services (Inter Services Agency), long since infiltrated by Islamists. Themselves battling Pakistan's security forces; those that aren't themselves tainted.

Will it be Mr. Sharif with his shaded past of al-Qaeda co-operation, who instilled, during his rule, sharia law, and oversaw Pakistan's first test nuclear explosion; who himself was responsible for incarcerating Benazir Bhutto's corrupt husband? Or will it be Mr. Zardari, whose father-in-law was responsible for funding nuclear development, the very man whom Mr. Sharif's mentor imposed a death sentence on?

Either side of the flipped coin will deliver results sufficient to flagellate the tender hopes of any Pakistani citizen looking for an end to uncertainty and confusion, and a beginning of moderation-inspired national normalcy.