Craftily Diluting Allegiance

It takes a cunning long-term prescience to stack the decks as Russia has done, encouraging its citizens to migrate to its neighbours' geographic locations to place a whole lot of Russian sentiment and allegiance where it could most wreak havoc on another state's priorities and values.

Granted, much of this moving about and settlement took place during the era of the Soviet Union when Russians felt free to migrate "internally" as it were, but their sentimental attachment to the motherland has never evaporated in place of total allegiance to the new country of residence.

And now those chickens are coming home to roost. Not that the accepting countries, those now outside the Soviet Union and independent (or so they like to feel) of Russia, had any great say in the matter. With the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. they were left with a significant minority of originally-Russian citizens, now comprising a sizeable enough political-cultural bloc that places especial emphasis on loyalty to Russia.

And now, the fact is, Russia can call in those chicks to support her in her continuing insistence on former satellites' allegiance to Russia. An allegiance those former Soviet bloc countries were only too glad to shed.

Russia liked to think of its heading the U.S.S.R. and controlling the political agenda, along with the natural resources of its colonized east European "partners" as that of a sensitive mentor and caretaker of countries less capable of looking after their own best interests than could Russia, hence the "Soviet But Equal" assurances.

But each of its satellites quietly chafed under Russia's iron rule. And now that they (think) are free at last, and have been enabled to go on their own, autonomous, self-directed way they have been quick to make choices for themselves without (they thought) undue interference.

Many have been materially enriched by their sovereign decision-making and would have it no other way, despite Russia continuing to insist they are obligated to her. Russia feels it should be consulted in all matters concerning its former satellites' political dispositions.

Yet many continue to have aspirations to join Western-based institutions that they feel might protect them and enhance their autonomy. Some, still rankled by their past obeisance to their U.S.S.R. master, have even delighted in proffering gentle pokes at the sleeping giant, once their overseer.

Russia has responded variously; through bellicose threats; cutting off energy sources; rumbling its deep-throat warning that it has been humiliated more than sufficiently. And now, countries like Ukraine and the Baltics, after Russia's starkly brutal invasion of Georgia shrivel into their shells in complete recognition that what has been visited upon Georgia can be repeated with them.

Latvia, Moldova and Ukraine are just about as vulnerable as Georgia. They too also host Russian enclaves within their borders - not just South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Latvia's near-million Russians, and Estonia's half-million, along with Ukraine's estimated 11-million Russians are wise to tread carefully lest Russia cast about for a reason it might rattle its sabre and herd a long line of armoured vehicles across their borders too, in protection of Russian citizens.

Russia's "peace-keeping" missions have set a new standard in modern realpolitik, demonstrating that whatever the United States might undertake in breaching nations' borders and usurping authority, they can do one better. NATO? What does that stand for, that quaint acronym?