As Goes Pakistan, So Too Does Afghanistan

It's like that proverbial house of cards, or stacked dominoes. Knock one over, the rest fall. The plague of religious extremism appears to have infected the region, and it seems that no antidote exists, no amount of diligent administration of remediating infusions of civility and charity can wrench the population out of its collapse into fundamentalism. Not that there doesn't exist countless poor wretches in the countryside that might prefer the mujidaheen, the Taliban, to leave them in peace to get on with their lives.

But corrupt officials and basely corrupt and self-seeking and inept administrations in both of these countries see to it that there is no firm advance in the struggle against Islamism in its most twisted and grotesque manifestation as a religion of holy war, in their grim determination to install a rigidly theistic state. Pakistan has so long encouraged the existence of rigidly fundamentalist Islamist armed militias as a foil against India and by extension Afghanistan, that the government is no longer in control.

This has amply manifested as reality, but never recognized by official Pakistan, despite its neighbouring country's imploring it time and again to cease and desist in supporting Islamic militants in the lawless North West Frontier region. Giving them easy access to Afghanistan. Pakistan believed that as long as it tolerated and appeased the wild tribal chieftains and their growing support for the Taliban, it would itself be exempt from attack.

But the more overtures made to establish agreements between the government and the Taliban, the more, predictably enough, did the Taliban become emboldened because they construed those agreements as validation and encouragement of their purpose. As signs of a weak government. That Pakistan was incapable of foreseeing the eventuality of this reality can be ascribed in large part to its unrelenting war with India over ownership of disputed Kashmir. Pakistan has always been complacent about supporting militant Islamists attacking Hindu India.

Now its chickens have truly come home to roost. The three governing parties that currently and insecurely form the uneasy coalition are faced with the reality of a weakened and demoralized national security force; army troops and paramilitary soldiers, however well armed, who feel that the Taliban has the upper hand. Not surprisingly, since they now control the Frontier's arterial roads and towns. Even Peshawar, the provincial capital, is under virtual siege.

Police hesitate to patrol at night for fear of militant attacks, which have been numerous and deadly. "It is a highly alarming situation" said one senior provincial government official, in a masterstroke of understatement. Even the supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan through the Khyber Pass is being struck by the Taliban through frequent convoy attacks. The tribal areas are securely in the command of the Taliban, along with key cities of the Frontier area.

The very leader of the Taliban who is considered to have been responsible for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto remains very comfortable, alert and in command of the South Waziristan tribal region. Where, not incidentally, al-Qaeda itself has found comfort and support, establishing its main base there. The provincial government has signed a peace deal with the militants in the Swat valley, the government releasing a commander responsible for thousands of fighters operating in Afghanistan.

And there is NATO, in Afghanistan, unveiling a host of incentives and initiatives, doing its utmost in a two-pronged attack, to both hold back the advances of the resurgent Taliban, and persuading the people of Afghanistan that in the final analysis, despite their own government's proven incapacity to govern adequately, much less build vital civic infrastructure, they can and should depend on the work of foreign soldiers and diplomats.

Canada, through its CIDA-funded Governance and Development Support Project to Kandahar has introduced a three-year plan to transform Kandahar from civic chaos to a well-run and responsibly-managed city. One of the few uncorrupted Afghan administrators, Mayor Ghulam Haider Hamidi has returned to his sad and sorry country, at the urging of Hamid Karzai, to enact a new regime, where residents pay taxes which enable the municipality to provide the vital services of a functioning city.

Community development councils have been activated with the assistance of outside sources like the UN Habitat program. The residents will begin to see tangible benefits resulting from formalization of city services, ranging from legitimizing land ownership through the issuance of land titles to owners, ensuring security of tenure and property value increases, and employment opportunities, along with city water improvements, resulting from payment of taxes.

All of this will be an exercise in futility if Pakistan remains in its current state of instability, incapable of dealing with the tribal militants that their own government tolerated and encouraged to the extent that their affiliates prospered and grew, now threatening the country's legitimate administration. The spillover, should it occur, will knock down NATO's and the UN's still-tenuous house of cards.