This is a blog dedicated to a personal interpretation of political news of the day. I attempt to be as knowledgeable as possible before commenting and committing my thoughts to a day's communication.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

 Reading The Tea Leaves

"We're hearing the echoes of some of the same policies and mindsets that failed us in the past. [There is] a lot of shaky information out there [about the deal with Iran]."
"The same politicians and pundits that are so quick to reject the possibility of a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear program are the same folks who were so quick to go to war in Iraq and said it would only take a few months."
"[My administration has] done the hard and patient work of uniting the international community to meet a common threat. Instead of chest-beating that rejects the idea of talking to our adversaries, which sometimes sounds good in sound bites but accomplishes nothing, we're seeing that strong, principled diplomacy can give hope of actually resolving a problem peacefully, instead of rushing into another conflict."
U.S. President Barack Obama

President Obama is fairly cavalier about the realities relating to the Islamic Republic of Iran. It's not that he isn't aware that the country sponsors terrorism abroad and funds proxy militias which it can call upon to do its bidding. Iran's al-Quds section of the Republican Guards Corps. was responsible for the creation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, convincing the Lebanese Shiites that a martyrdom devotion to Islam merited their dedication.

Hezbollah exists primarily as a vehicle whereby the Republic of Iran can at what it deems the right time, instruct the terrorist group to advance an attack against Israel. With the relaxation of sanctions and the re-funding of its economy, Iran will now be enabled once again to spread its financial largess and the purveying of technically advanced rocketry to beef up Hezbollah's munitions stock. The Shiite group's actions in Syria, bolstering the al-Assad regime's hold in power represents Iran's interest. Iraq and Yemen are falling into place.

President Obama has failed miserably in his administration's choices on the international stage. From Libya to Yemen, Syria to Egypt, Israel to Saudi Arabia he has indeed foisted on the Middle East and the Muslim world a new tradition in relations between it and the United States. As he promised when he addressed the Muslim world in Egypt, as the new administration began. While he righteously fulminates against the administration that preceded his own, he has not succeeded in steering the United States and its relations with traditional allies in a manner to gain their confidence and respect.

He can boast to his heart's content and anticipate a legacy that will gain him imagined admiration and a place in history, living up to the expectation inherent in his Nobel Peace prize, but his decisions and his judgements have done nothing to advance world peace, let alone peace in the Middle East and North Africa. America's might and its legacy as the world's sheriff has, in fact, been undermined by Mr. Obama's mistaken views. Acrimonious criticism offends this man.

His continued and arbitrary back-pedalling on already-stated and firm red lines in favour of second thoughts and diplomacy have done nothing to garner him the trust of those who depend on the intervention when obviously required of the United States. He has actually made the United States look weak and untrustworthy. His actions are interpreted in the Arab world of jihad and Islamist tribal violence as the work of a cowardly weakling.

"It is clear that a facility of sizable scale cannot simply be erased in three weeks’ time without leaving traces [the issue of the 24-day advance notice of IAEA inspection]. The likelier risk is that the Iranians would pursue smaller-scale but still important nuclear work, such as manufacturing uranium components for a nuclear weapon]" Ollie Heinonen, formerly deputy director of the IAEA said in an interview. He also said there had been cases in which Iran had  hidden evidence of illicit nuclear work involving nuclear enrichment.

He gave as an example the experience of the IAEA when it attempted to inspect the Kalaye Electric Company site in Iran in 2003 to check whether the Iranians were using centrifuges that they had obtained from Pakistan. At that time the Iranians kept inspectors waiting for weeks while they removed equipment and renovated the building where the centrifuges in question had been kept.

"Certain parts of the installation were renovated, leaving no trace of enrichment activities that had taken place", he stated. "Non-renovated parts had uranium in the 2003 contamination, which raised concerns". Mr. Heinonen said Iran would be better prepared to remove evidence of illicit activities should they decide to dishonour the accord. "There will likely be plans to be executed promptly to avoid getting caught."

Voices like his were like a gentle breeze blowing past President Obama's notice.

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