Ukraine's Ongoing Existential Plight

"Europe looks lost. Just last year, here in Davos, I ended my speech with the words: Europe needs to know how to defend itself. A year has passed. And nothing has changed."

"We are still in a situation where I must say the same words again."

"[Ukrainians too seem caught in that reality in the war] repeating the same thing for weeks, months and, of course, for years. And yet that is exactly how we live now. It's our life."

"[Europe] still feels more like a geography, history, a tradition, not a real political force, not a great power."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 

Zelensky said repelling Monday night's attack had cost Ukraine about €80m (£69m) just in terms of air defence missiles  Reuters

 

In Kyiv, close to 3,000 multi-storey residential buildings are without heat. Some 600,000 residents of Kyiv have been evacuated in the wake of Moscow's recent blitz initiated on New Year's Day. This week, roughly 60 percent of the capital city of Ukraine had no electricity during the worst winter in recent years, with temperatures hovering at -10C. Misery lives on in Ukraine. And somehow, Ukrainians muster the endurance to go on. 

 

Ukraine's allies in Europe were treated to a blistering charge of lack of adequate engagement in protecting themselves by not doing more to protect Ukraine. The slow, fragmented, inadequate response to the invasion launched by Russia four years earlier and its ongoing international aggression by daring Europe to do anything about it has finally irked a man with the weight of his responsibilities to the point of exasperation with the very allies he so much depends upon.

Apartment buildings during subzero temperatures in Kyiv on Sunday. Oksana Parafeniuk for NBC News

 

Of course, Ukraine's ultimate fate also illustrates the potential of greater Europe's in the crosshairs of Vladimir Putin whose thirst for territorial gain will not be entirely quenched by an eventual success in looting territory from its neighbour. NATO and the European Union have thus far shown themselves to be less than fully engaged in rescuing one of their own -- if not in membership, then in solidarity with a sovereign nation aspiring to be one among them.

 

He had previously met once again privately with U.S. President Donald Trump in Davis. "Very good" talks, "Productive and meaningful", said Mr. Zelenskyy. And that could mean anything. It could mean that some hope still lies from that direction, and it could be a lie, to prevent his European allies from resigning themselves completely to surrendering all hope that slender threads remain before Ukraine is completely engulfed and their materiel aid has been for naught -- and  some among them are next in the lineup.

 

The financial, military and humanitarian support for Kyiv has been substantial, but against a much larger, better equipped military force, valiant Ukraine seems set for heavier territorial losses yet to come. Not all members of the 27-nation alliance are in support of Ukraine to be sure, but those that are can visualize their own sovereignty at risk, particularly those within the realm of Russia's unfortunate 'near abroad', the Baltic, Poland and the Nordic states. 

 

Sweden's security service said Russia's activities were mainly aimed at undermining Nato cohesion Getty Images

 

Since its February 2022 full invasion of  Ukraine, following initial kinetic hostilities in 2014, that gained Russia the annexation of Crimea, Russia has captured about 20 percent of Ukraine to the present. The 1,000-kilometre front line battles have still been an expensive gamble for the Kremlin with the Russian economy teetering under international sanctions, along with the cost of its invasion both in personnel and military hardware. 

 

Ukraine has proven adept in producing munitions of its own, in particular its drone manufacturing, but its need for financial aid from its allies is ongoing, as well as its dependence on Europe to continue providing it with the military weapons it so desperately ein need of to continue countering Russian advances; all the more so with its looming shortage of military operatives. 

 

Europe, Mr. Zelenskyy charged, has been too lax in acting on key decisions. It has spent too frugally on defence. Russia's 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers, breaking international sanctions have not been impeded as required. Worse, a consensus of agreement has not been reached for Russia's frozen assets to be used for finance Ukraine's battle for existence and eventual reconstruction. 

 

The world's attention, pivoting from Gaza and now to Iran has not been helpful in keeping Ukraine's plight under ongoing Russian attack front and centre, given a boost when President Trump began favouring Putin's war front over Ukraine's defense, which has now fizzled away, as the latest drama on the world stage continues to unfold, making Ukraine last week's news of diminished interest to a war-wearied global public. 

 

Poland, Sweden and others are buying subs to protect pipelines   Getty Images

Russia's Near-Abroad

"What we see in Ukraine, and the way Russia is waging war -- means that this strategy [NATO's batlegroup 'tripwires' meant to forestall Russia's territorial ambitions] needs to be adjusted."

"We do have to reassess the risk posture and how much we need to stand together against potential Russian incursions and aggression."

"Where the Russian military goes, not only is civilian infrastructure destroyed, but civilians are shot, maimed, murdered, raped, tortured, deported, killed."

"That means we need to have a more robust position in the Baltics to prevent an attack from occurring in the first place."

Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krisjanis Karins

"Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay."

"We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days."

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto/Prime Minister Sanna Marin

"Definitely [Finland's accession to NATO poses a direct threat to Russia]."

"Definitely NATO expansion does not make our continent more stable and secure."

This cannot fail to arouse our regret, and is a reason for corresponding symmetrical responses on our side."

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman 

A first responder works at the site of a missile strike, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Odesa, Ukraine in this handout

 

That 'symmetrical responses' phrase was attention-grabbing. Analysts might point out that past situations spoke to potential counter-measures the Kremlin could consider in the event that its neighbours decided to move closer to the West and to join NATO, a prospect that makes the Russian Federation very nervous indeed. And one that reputedly spurred Vladimir Putin to scorn Ukraine as a puppet of the West controlled by fascists which obligated Russia to invade and bring war to Ukraine, a stunning course of punishment.

Responses on a wider basis -- setting aside the prospect of a Russian invasion of all its neighbours simultaneously rather than the feared and anticipated sequentially at a time when the Russian military finds itself bogged down in one country -- could conceivably consist alternately of Russia placing nuclear-armed missiles on the Baltic Seacoast. When asked whether Finland might, by joining NATO, provoke Russia, its President said: "My response would be that you caused this. Look at the mirror".

The expectation of other NATO allies is that Finland, along with Sweden which has also stated its intention to apply for NATO membership, would be quickly granted membership. That would result in an increased troop presence to defend the Nordic region during the period of ratification that would take approximately a year. The irony is that Ukraine which has long sought NATO membership and has been put off for fear of aggravating Russia, was targeted with a "special military operation" to prevent just such NATO expansion.

 

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols an area, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in an undisclosed location in Kharkiv Region   Reuters

 

As the two largest EU countries to  join NATO to the present, Finland's 1,300-km border with Russia would double the frontier between NATO and Russia. NATO guards would be placed with this new alliance, a mere few hours' drive from the northern outskirts of St.Petersburg. As the world's sole superpower European nations feeling the stress and strain of a silent, looming threat from Russia, seek the protection of the world's largest and best-armed military, that of the United States.

Even while Moscow regards these events as a direct threat to its own influence and security in the region, it was that pre-emptive move to demonstrate that it would not tolerate NATO's creeping presence in the Russian near-abroad that motivated the Ukrainian invasion; the extended reach of which has been to shock, unnerve and convince Russia's neighbours that they're in dire need of the backing of an international coalition to give Russia pause over extending its 'special military operations' elsewhere.

And all will have taken note that Ukraine, though not a NATO member-nation, has been amply supported  with the supply of advanced technological weaponry which, together with the Ukraine military's fighting spirit in countering the Russian presence with a strong defense, has now transformed that hugely successful defense into an admirable counter-offensive, pushing Russian troops back towrd their own border, and even threatening Russian towns with the same treatment Russia meted out to Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian service members fire with a self-propelled howitzer 2S1 Gvozdika, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in unknown location in Kharkiv region, Ukraine May 7, 2022. REUTERS/Serhii Nuzhnenko

Missing : Hero of Ukraine Recipient

"She was captured with her driver Serhiy, also a volunteer, driving an ambulance in a humanitarian corridor."

"I know that the Russian occupiers will torture them."

"Russian propaganda talks about her as a really dangerous woman, a killer, really violent, but that's not true."

"She was not only saving the lives of our soldiers, our civilians. She was also fighting for my future and for Ukraine."

"This is my job now, this is my duty. This isn't just about my mother, but the women, children and civilians detained illegally by Russia."

Anna-Sofia Puzanova, 19, daughter of hostage-taken volunteer ambulance corps founder, Ukraine 

Yulia Paevska is the founder of the volunteer ambulance corps, Tayra's Angels

 

Paramedics rushing in hope of using their emergency medical skills to save survivors of the Mariupol theatre bombing are now in an unknown place. While en route to the scene of the bombing knowing that over a thousand women and children were sheltering in the city and would be targets, Yulia Paevska while travelling to the bombing was taken by Russian troops.

She had stopped to treat a civilian wounded on March 15, who had been attempting to evade the Russian military's bombardment through a humanitarian corridor, when she was captured. Since then, her daughter Anna-Sofia Puzanova, has not seen or heard from her mother, apart from forced appearances in Kremlin propaganda videos.

She has no idea whether her kidnapped mother is safe, much less that she remains alive. Before the kidnapping they had spoken when the mother informed her daughter about rescuing civilians as they attempted escape from the Russian forces' constant bombardment. She believes, however, that it is likely her mother is being kept among thousands of Ukrainians in concentration camps in the Russian-held parts of the Donbas.

Her mother, whose nickname is Tayra, is listed as a prisoner of war whom the government of Ukraine is willing to exchange for captured Russians. Moscow, however has repeatedly refused any such requests for her release. She is the founder of the volunteer ambulance corps, Tayra's Angels, and as such considered a prize grab by the Kremlin.

The corps, Tayra's Angels, founded in 2014, is credited with saving over 5,000 lives and training over 1,000 volunteer medics. There is a grim analogy here with the White Helmets volunteer medic group in Syria also dedicated to rushing in wherever Russian planes bombed the civilian populations in Sunni-majority areas of the country, to save lives. And who were themselves bombed on arrival at bombed-out sites.

The White Helmet group turned to giving aid and practical support to their Ukrainian counterparts through video training and encouragement. In acknowledgement of her humanitarian efforts Paevska was awarded the national title of Hero of Ukraine, given to civilians recognized for outstanding service to the country. Her government is anxious to repatriate her. Russia is determined to prevent it.

 

Now, her daughter is mounting another type of campaign; one which would see her mother released, along with the release of an estimated five hundred Ukrainian women who have been captured by Russian troops. In Ukraine, ample evidence is documented of targeted bombings of civilians, deportations and relocation of children and women. 

Irina Dubchenko, a missing Ukrainian journalist, fits a larger pattern of Russian forces detaining Ukrainian women.  CNN

Taking Irpin to Assault and Infiltrate Kyiv

"Dear Alexander, you have the opportunity to save life and health, and maybe improve your financial situation."

"If you are interested in the offer, send a 'plus' sign in a response message. The validity of the message is 24 hours."

Phone message from a Russian number

 

"I am making a public counter-offer to the occupiers."

"If you leave the territory of Irpin within 24 hours, you can save the lives of several thousand Russian conscript soldiers, whose beloved mothers, sisters, daughters and grandmothers are waiting at home."

Oleksandr Markushyn, mayor, Irpin, Kyiv suburb

 

"Keep your family close, and charge up mobiles -- this is our city and our place. We will do everything to protect our citizens."

"At this time, there is no evidence of shots or explosions inside Irpin."

"Stay calm but be ready to go to your hiding places immediately."

Anton, Irpin town official, public announcement, February 24, 2022

Men carry an elderly woman fleeting Irpin, March 10, 2022

 

Irpin, a leafy suburb of Kyiv, Ukraine's capital city, has been under fire since February 25. Russian military forces view the suburb as a prime spot from which to launch attacks against Kyiv preparatory to taking the city. Early this week, its mayor, Oleksandr Markushyn, received a message addressing him directly, that he could fight on and ultimately be killed. Or he could be reasonable and agree to the offer to surrender. An assent would be a return message from him to the Russian source, of a plus sign.

 

His response was immediate, in the character of a minus sign, delivered with a counter-offer, a reasonable enough demand whose sardonic message was measured to sting the receiver. Russia, after all, has steadfastly denied it had sent conscripts to Ukraine, insisting that only seasoned members of the military had been dispatched. Despite confused and frightened mothers of young conscripts publicly demanding to know where their sons are.

The message exchange took place on Monday. By Wednesday Irpin resounded with the sound of bombs and gunfire. The mayor carried on with his evacuation of those citizens of Irpin that still remained. Eight civilians are thought to have died so far in the town, despite the mayor's spokesman speaking of a higher number of deaths: "I would say that at least 50 people have died already. It is chaos there -- the Russians are not observing any kind of ceasefire."

 

Bodies are placed in a mass grave outside Mariupol on March 9, 2022. With overflowing morgues and repeated shelling the city is unable to conduct proper burials.

 

There is a green belt of forest separating the satellite town of Irpin from Kyiv, situated on its northwest fringe. The town of 60,000 inhabitants represented a sought-after commuter suburb. Its parks and new housing estates was popular with young families. Now, the town is largely under the control of the Russian military, a foothold on Kyiv's outskirts to enable assaults on the capital.

Most of the town's residents have fled to Kyiv, leaving all they own behind; their homes, belongings, jobs, schools, friends -- and unforgivably, pets. In the first days of the Russian invasion, the reality of their situation had not yet penetrated the population, where the ideal place to raise a family was so suddenly transformed into a conflict zone. Before the war a list of addresses for local emergency shelters was circulated along with locations for blood-giving.

One post that circulated throughout the community by the residents' messaging service set up on the Viber mobile phone app, read: "If you hear shots or bombs coming in (a certain type of whistle), immediately fall to the ground. In any case, do not run". Then, on the morning of February 25 there were explosions that got progressively louder and closer throughout the day.

Photographs were posted by residents of Russian tanks in the street. There were claims that the invaders were seen changing into civilian clothing. In such apparel the Russian servicemen are able to infiltrate into Kyiv without being noticed, to do their work as saboteurs, from the interior of the city radioing messages to guide the bombers to identified locales such as government offices -- or hospitals.

Destroyed Russian tanks are seen, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in the Sumy region, Ukraine, March 7, 2022. Irina Rybakova/Press service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces/Handout via REUTERS

Unfortunately for the invaders plans are not quite going according to schedule, which had it that it would take no more than a week before the superior forces of the Russian military would overwhelm the unprepared and lesser-militarily equipped Ukrainian military. Russian commanders failed to reckon on the resolve of the defenders of the country, both military and ordinary citizens who have taken up arms, buoyed by the prospect of hitting back and stopping the Russian advance. A defence that appears to be working very well, to date.

Taking Moscow's Measure

"Mr. Secretary-General, please instruct the secretariat to distribute among the members of the Security Council and the members of the General Assembly a decision by the Security Council dated December 1991 that recommends that the Russian Federation can be a member of this organization, as well as a decision by the General Assembly dated December 1991 where the General Assembly welcomes the Russian Federation to this organization."

"It would be a miracle if the secretariat is able to produce such decisions."

"There is nothing in the Charter of the United Nations about continuity, as a sneaky way to get into the organization."

"So when I was coming here an hour ago or so, I was intending to ask the Russian ambassador to confirm, on the record, that the Russian troops will not start firing at Ukrainians today and go ahead with the offensive. It became useless 48 minutes. Because about 48 minutes ago, your president declared war on Ukraine."

"So now I would like to ask the ambassador of the Russian Federation to say on the record that at this very moment your troops do not shell and bomb Ukrainian cities, that your troops do not move in the territory of Ukraine."

"You have a smartphone, you can call Lavrov right now. We can make a pause to let you go out and call him."

"If you are not in a position to give an affirmative answer, the Russian Federation ought to relinquish responsibilities of the president of the Security Council, pass these responsibilities of a legitimate member of the Security Council, a member that is respectful of the charter. And I ask the members of the Security Council to convene an emergency meeting immediately and consider all necessary draft decisions to stop the war."

Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Nations Sergiy Kyslytsya

 

Unsurprisingly, Russia, one of five countries that sit on the permanent UN Security Council, vetoed a resolution brought before an emergency meeting of the Security Council. Of course, some things are expected at the United Nations, and others are not: for example, seating Saudi Arabia, China, Cuba and Russia on the UN human rights council. Human rights, as basic as that might be, are not recognized in those regimes that make no excuses for themselves, yet are officially elevated to that position where they sit in judgement of other nations for whom human rights protection is paramount to their values.

 

On this occasion, however, other members of this discredited branch of the UN whose function is meant to maintain world peace, decided the resolution should be sent to a vote by the 193 membership of the United Nations. A move spurred under the Uniting for Peace resolution, which holds that when the Security Council fails to act in the maintenance of international peace due to lack of unanimity, the General Assembly can be called upon to consider the issue. In so doing it can call for collective remedial measures, including the use of armed force.

 

When Russia infamously annexed Crimea in 2014, 100 member countries of the UN supported a General Assembly commitment in support of the territorial integrity of Ukraine -- representing 52 percent of UN members. At the same time, 11 voted against, 58 abstained and 24 were absent; an entirely expected outcome, one reflecting 'business as usual' at that august body of global brotherhood. Martin Kimani, Kenya's ambassador to the UN spoke compellingly to the current issue:"Rather than form nations that looked ever backward into history with a dangerous nostalgia, we [Kenya] chose to look forward", he said.

"In the last two meetings on the situation in Ukraine, and the build up of forces by the Russian Federation, Kenya urged that diplomacy be given a chance. Our cry was not heeded and, more importantly, the Charter’s demand for states to settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered has been profoundly undermined."

"Today, the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine has been effected. Kenya is gravely concerned by the announcement made by the Russian Federation to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine as independent states. In our considered view, this action and announcement breaches the territorial integrity of -- of Ukraine."

"We do not deny that there may be serious security concerns in these regions. But they cannot justify today’s recognition of these regions as independent states -- not when there are multiple diplomatic tracks available and underway that have the ability to offer peaceful solutions."

"We rejected irredentism and expansionism on any basis, including racial, ethnic, religious, or cultural factors. We -- We reject it again today. Kenya registers its strong concern and opposition to the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. We further strongly condemn the trend in the last few decades of powerful states, including members of this Security Council, breaching international law with little regard."

"Multilateralism lies on its deathbed tonight. It has been assaulted today as it as it has been by other powerful states in the recent past. We call on all members to rally behind the Secretary-General in asking him to rally us all to the standard that defends multilateralism. We also call on him to bring his good offices to bear to help the concerned parties resolve this situation by peaceful means.

Let me conclude, Mr. President, by reaffirming Kenya's respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders."

Kenyan UN Ambassador Martin Kimani

A General Assembly force could be formed to intervene in Ukraine, under the United for Peace Resolution. There are other options, where members could task the UN's Secretary-
General Antonio Guterres to attend to the situation linking Russian forces to war crimes for the purpose of expulsion should they prove to be verifiable. Should a member persistently violate principles of the UN Charter, rules are that they can be expelled.

The Washington Post  Cluster and Vacuum bombs the Russian military is accused of using as war crimes.

 

And, in fact, Vladimir Putin on Monday was accused of war crimes in the wake of his military's indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities where civilians have been killed, including children. A doctor who desperately tried to save the life of a six-year-old girl, killed in her bombed family home, declared: "Show this to Putin. The eyes of this child, and crying doctors". Mr. Putin, the inscrutable Mr. Putin, has never shrunk from delivering death to his adversaries. And a Ukrainian child became by her ethnicity and residence, an adversary.

Anther dead-by-military-conquest was Polina, age ten, pictured with pink-streaked hair, killed by Russian saboteurs along with her parents and brother, in Kyiv. The Kremlin ordered Kharkiv to be bombarded on the fifth day of the conflict. Kharkiv, the nation's second-largest city, claimed the Russian military deployed cluster munitions in its dense urban areas to maximize civilian casualties. A situation not unfamiliar to Russia, which previously was accused of the use of cluster bombs in Syria.

According to the International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor Karim Khan, a war crimes investigation was soon to begin. "Kharkiv has just been massively fired upon by Grads (rockets). Dozens dead and hundreds wounded", stated Ukraine's interior minister. "The Russian enemy is bombing residential areas of Kharkiv, where there is no critical infrastructure, where there are no positions of the armed forces", stated Kharkiv's governor, Oleg Sinegubov.

Fatalities, according to Ihor Terkhov, mayor of Kharkiv, included a family of five with three children "incinerated alive" when a Russian rocket hit their car. "It's not just a war, it's murder", he said. Dozens were killed in strikes on the port city of Mariupol where apartment blocks were shelled. Russia, not a signatory to the convention on cluster munitions banning the use of indiscriminate weapons aside, the Geneva Convention outlaws the targeting of civilians.

Black smoke rises from a military airport in Chuhuiv, near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Thursday. Humanitarian organizations say Russian forces are using cluster munitions in their bombing and shelling of Ukraine. Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images

 

"They tell us February16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity."

"They are trying to frighten us by yet another naming [of] a date for the start of military action."

"On that day, we will hang our national flags, wear yellow and blue banners, and show the whole world our unity."

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy 

"It is quite understandable why Ukrainians today are skeptical about various 'specific dates' of the so-called 'start of the invasion' announced in the media."

"When the 'start of the invasion' becomes some sort of rolling tour date, such media announcements can only be taken with irony."

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Zelenskiy chief of staff

 

"I won't get into a specific date. I don't think that would be smart."

"I would just tell you that it is entirely possible that he [Russian President Vladimir Putin] could move with little to no warning."

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby

"We have already warned more than once that we will not allow endless negotiations on questions that demand a solution today."

"It seems to me that our possibilities are far from exhausted ... At this stage, I would suggest continuing and building them up."

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov

Service members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces drive a tank during military exercises in Kharkiv region, Ukraine February 10, 2022. REUTERS/Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy

No end of stern warnings going Moscow's way from Western countries threatening sanctions whose scale would be, purportedly, unprecedented should Russia decide to invade its neighbour. That is an official invasion, not merely the invasion of the ethnic Russian Ukrainian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk who claim the Donbas and any other part of East Ukraine -- at least for the moment, until they can extend their ambitions -- to be part of Greater Russia.

On Monday the Group of Seven largest economies gave warning of "economic and financial sanctions which will have massive and immediate consequences on the Russian economy". Well, the Kremlin is holding fast. Russian security, first and foremost. For NATO to creep any closer to Russia's borders is quite simply unacceptable. On which account demands have been made which would effectively allow Moscow to take an unofficial yet officious seat on NATO's governing body.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated his belief "from his own analysis, his own hopes" following discussions with the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine, that conflict will not occur, according to to a UN spokesperson. Again and yet again Moscow points out that Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO is perceived by them as an existential threat to Russian stability and security.

All the parties involved in this standoff seem to be following one another in an endless, circuitous, spiralling dance of accusations and blame, denials and threats. The situation has already cost Ukraine dearly in  economic terms for its adamant position on its right as a sovereign nation to form alliances of its choice. The country has seen a surge in its credit default swaps on Ukrainian sovereign bonds in the expectation of the probability of defaulting.

Ukraine's largest airline, Ukraine International Airlines has experienced terminate cover for some of its aircraft on flights in Ukrainian airspace by its insurers. Not exactly a vote of confidence. In the face of which President Zelenskiy has called on his countrymen to sing the national anthem in unison on Wednesday, February 16, the date given by some Western media as the possible start of a Russian invasion.