Border-Crossing Drugs -- Transnational Criminal Operations

"There's a lot of frustration and it, in and of itself, lends itself to facile responses that look good, but in the end don't really do anything."

"Blowing up drug boats ... is a perfect example of a facile response that does absolutely nothing."

"We often think of [fentanyl] as just a border issue, and it's not just a border issue. These are transnational criminal operations."

Regina LaBelle, professor of addiction policy Georgetown University 

 

"The biggest concern we see is what's happening on our southern border being pushed up to our northern border."

"Over the last year, we've apprehended enough fentanyl that would kill 17 million Americans on our northern border." 

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said this week that more fentanyl is coming into the U.S. from Canada, which is not reflected in the latest data from U.S. border officials (Manuel Balce Ceneta/The Associated Press)

 

"I mean, it just really isn't happening."

"It's way too much trouble to ship [fentanyl] around and put it through Canada and then take it into the United States."

Mark Tyndall, public health scientist, professor of medicine University of British Columbia

 

"The flows that we know of across the U.S.-Canada border are token and trivial compared to the flows into the U.S., primarily across the southwest border or the flows into Canada of the precursors, not through the U.S."

"The fentanyl killing Canadians is mostly made in Canada with precursors that came from China."

"The U.S. supply chain is independent of the Canadian supply chain once the precursors leave China, but the manufacturing for U.S. markets mostly happens in Mexico." 

Jonathan Caulkins, drug policy researcher, Carnegie Mellon University

A bag filled with drug paraphernalia  (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)

 

There has been a realization of a drop in overdose deaths in both Canada and the United States. Drug policy experts can only theorize what the cause might be. The recently identified decline may be attributable to supply shifts alongside public health measures, eliminating tariffs or border crackdowns as part of the cause. The fearful public menace of overdose deaths has strike across all measures of society in both countries; everyone knows someone who knows someone who died of a drug overdose caused by synthetic opioids like fentanyl.

 

While Canada has developed no system of gathering statistics, the worst-hit province of British Columbia can boast that one in five residents knew someone who died from an overdose, in 2023. In 2024, close to half of Americans knew of someone who died from an overdose. Those who study the societal impacts of the drug trade tend to differ in their understanding of the situation, its impact and its victims and the possible causes, from politicians who view the subject from the perspective of ... politics.

 

And while Homeland Security Secretary Mullin claims pressure on the southern border drives cartel actions northward, including toward Canada, citing a surge in fentanyl moving across the northern border, he is contradicted by his Canadian counterpart who states data "really haven't borne that [Mullin's contention] out". 

Kevin Brosseau, Canada's fentanyl czar, says his goal is to eliminate all fentanyl in the country. 'It's killing kids every day and destroying families,' he said. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

 

Canadian fentanyl czar Kevin Brousseau cited U.S. Customs and Border Protection figures indicating some three kilograms of fentanyl seized at the northern order since October 2025. Which makes quite a comparison with over 3,000 kilograms seized at the southern, Mexican border. Nor are epidemiologists other than skeptical of charges that fentanyl trafficking has been shifting north.  

"We're talking about an illicit supply market that is entirely in the hands of illicit production traffickers, criminal organizations, and there's no regulation."

"[Supply conditions] can change very quickly again."

"A little change or an added highly toxic component to the drugs distributed could drive that toward an uptick."

Regina LaBelle

 

"From all I can gather, it's a mix of things, but the most likely driver of the drop in overdose deaths, at least on the Canadian side, has been changes in the fentanyl or in the synthetic opioid supply."

"[That could be construed as lower purity or products mixed with less lethal substances]."

Benedikt Fischer, professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University  

Precursor chemicals, usually shipped in from China, are generally available widely, enabling local production of fentanyl. The potency of the opioid calculates to a tiny amount able to supply the U.S. market. According to Professor Caulkins, trafficking capacity  and the criminal organizations that are involved are logically the most effective target by law agencies. 

 

Sharp declines in overdose deaths seen in both Canada and the U.S., since late 2023 where in the U.S. deaths involving synthetic opioids fell from 74,702 in 2023 to 48,422 in 2024, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while positive in outlook, remain a puzzle in understanding why. The Canadian Public Health Agency data reflect 7,146 opioid-related drug toxicity deaths in 2024, 17 percent fewer than 2023, followed by another 2025 decline to 5,630.

The factors that may be assigned to these drops in fatal overdose occurrences range widely; expanded naloxone access, supervised consumption sites, drug supply prevention efforts, and increased public awareness among them. A 2026 study in Science magazine revealing a shock to the fentanyl supply having occurred in 2023 attributed to Chinese regulatory changes affecting access to precursor chemicals, another possible reason. 

 

In late 2023, deaths suddenly decreased in both countries, making it unlikely to point to one of the countries' policy changes, as a causative. Making it more likely that it is the supply that likely had an effect on the death rate. If so, this is a condition that may not continue. Academics now appear to favour the opinion that the fentanyl crisis is not vulnerable to border crackdowns, but more likely reacting to illicit market shifts and the capacity of public health systems to react accordingly. 

"If vigilance at any border drops, traffickers could use it as a transshipment route."

"Things that disturb the ability of the two countries on either side of the border to partner effectively are counterproductive."

"[Canada and the U.S. should refrain from allowing trade tensions to impair working in tandem at the border]." 

Jonathan Caulkins, Carnegie Mellon University 

A man sits on a sidewalk along East Hastings Street in Vancouver's Downtown Eastside. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward