Russian Games, NATO non-response

Crews of Russia's Iskander-M missile system practice delivering group strikes on critically important targets in Kaliningrad region during the Zapad-2025 (West-2025) joint military drills [Russian Defence Ministry Handout Photo/EPA

 

"[Ukrainian drone strikes have hit] major refineries in the European part of Russia -- in the Samara, Ryazan, Volgograd, Saratov, Rostov, Krasnodar and Komi regions."

"One, two, three strikes."

"They can't affect the overall demand or prices." 

Military blogger Alexander Kots  

Ukraine stated a month earlier that it had struck the Syzran refinery -- situated over 800 kilometres from the border, which Kyiv describes as state oil giant Rosneft's "most significant" facility. Russian refineries have been targeted by Kyiv for months, justifying such attacks as fair retribution for the barrages Moscow has been subjecting Ukraine's cities to. It is justification enough to take such steps to drastically diminish energy revenues that fund the Russian military and its unjustifiable campaign in Ukraine.

 

Footage purported to show smoke rising after a drone attack on the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat company in Salavat, Bashkortostan Republic, Russia, on Sept. 18, 2025. (Social media)

 

A wave of strikes by Ukraine have hit key Russian facilities, their success leading to higher fuel prices that also lead to shortages. "Little by little, but very frequently the price of fuel is going up. Everybody has noticed", railed Russian pensioner Oleg against surging as prices attributable in great part to Ukrainian strikes on the Russian oil infrastructure. Moscow has attempted to shelter Russians from its Ukraine offensive's fallout on the Russian economy, to avoid a public backlash.

 

Ukraine has 'hit the nail on the head' with strikes on Russian oil industry, economist says  Euro News

 

Where sanctions have failed in their purpose to diminish Russian oil revenues, the Ukraine attacks have produced a much  more intensive effect to one of the world's top oil producers.  Where in Russia, consumers are accustomed to state subsidies allowing them to pay far less for fuel than their counterparts in Europe. These soaring prices are beginning to concern the ordinary Russian consumer. "Since the start of summer, even the start of the year, prices have been noticeable rising. You know, for ordinary people, an extra 200 or 300 rubles starts to be felt", griped 56-year-old Artem.

 

Record high wholesale prices for Russia's standardA1-95 fuel, according to market data have affected the cost of fuel at Moscow gas stations where a litre now costs 66 rubles, up 6.7 percent this year, thus far. From the Far East to the Crimean peninsula, social media is flooded with videos of long gas station queues. No official statistics are available regarding how much capacity has been taken offline, and nor does state media report on the success of Ukrainian attacks which also necessitate maintenance shutdowns, affecting as well higher demand from the agricultural sector.

 

Kyiv is satisfied with the reality that the Kremlin has been forced to respond to the situation by extending a ban on gas exports, dramatically cutting Russia's energy revenues. For its part, Moscow escalated its tactics by sending kamikaze drones into Polish territory, part of a larger Russian overnight barrage on September 9 and 20 where 415 drones and 43 missiles were launched against Ukraine. Subsequent to which both Romania and Estonia saw their airspace violated by Russia.

 

The watching world saw a significant display of diplomatic unity in Beijing today, as China's Xi Jinping, Russia's Vladimir Putin, and North Korea's Kim Jong Un met in public for the first time. Getty Images

 

These are NATO member-countries. In other words, Russia's Vladimir Putin is engaged in poking NATO's eye, left, then right, and the response has been just what Putin expected. He is testing NATO's resolve, its readiness and its dedication to upholding the assurance to its members that any attack on one will be regarded as an attack on the entire collective, necessitating a collective response. How far is Putin prepared to go in taunting NATO, and is the Kremlin itself prepared to deal with any potential consequences of a response?

 

Accident or deliberate on Russia's part? Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated that his government -- as did NATO allies - assessed that the drones entering Polish airspace "did not veer off course, but were deliberately targeted. Lies and denials are default Soviet responses." Mr. Putin has been enjoying himself for years, creating awkward scenarios the West has had to deal with. Moscow has  aided and incited large volumes of ME migrants to Belarus to be transported to EU borders, instructed to sneak across to claim asylum.

 

Russian and Chinese vessels have severed undersea telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea. Who, us? they deny. The multiple provocations against the West, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns resulting in economic and political discord have been accepted as 'Russia being Russia', with no blow-backs of any substance being pursued. Each time the Kremlin/Putin has pursued yet another gambit with the clear intention of irritating or placing Europe on notice with no consequences he has been emboldened to even greater exploits. 

 

Russian tanks move during the "Zapad-2025" (West-2025) joint Russian-Belarusian military drills at a training ground near the town of Borisov, east of the capital Minsk, on September 15, 2025.

Olesya Kurpyayeva/AFP/Getty Images

 

Bullies take the lack of consequences to their unsettling sociopathic traits as permissive of even bolder assaults. NATO, for all its heft and assurances to its member-states, has hesitated to react to Putin's frequent jabs. Does Putin feel he has nothing to lose in his quest to resurrect the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, violently persuasive tentacles once again capturing the protesting, struggling neighbours of Russia's near abroad? They are all convinced that Ukraine represents a test case, where resistance has surprised Russia, but not dissuaded it from its imperialist goal.

 

NATO is awaiting reassurance that 'peace in our time' is still possible. Restraining its members from insisting that their membership in the global  military alliance must mean something akin to concrete reaction. Acting rashly, goes the rationale, after all could result in an outbreak of World War Three. And it is well to remember that just as Germany had its Axis partners, so too does Russia have its support in China, North Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran; a formidable anti Western alliance against the U.S.-led democracies.

 

Belarus' servicemen work on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during the "Zapad-2025" (West-2025) joint Russian-Belarusian military drills at a training ground near the town of Borisov, east of the capital Minsk, on September 15, 2025.   Olesya Kurpyayeva/AFP/Getty Images