"Flash Flood Alley", Central Texas Catastrophe

"You have this intense rainfall on a landscape that you could characterize as being a thin layer of bone-dry soil."

"The ground was like concrete, but even beneath that thin layer of soil, it’s on top of that soil, rests on top of limestone and granite and that contributed to very rapid runoff into the river system that further accentuated the flooding and helping that big wall of water begin to get created." 

Michael Morgan, professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison

 

"What really turned this into even more of a nightmarish scenario was this happened at night, overnight, into a holiday weekend."

"So in a relatively rural area, sometimes it’s hard to get cellphone reception or it’s to get the word out for these things, flash floods coming down the river. It’s the sort of thing that keep meteorologists up at night and unfortunately, this nightmare was a reality."

"So then you basically had all of these really incredibly wet conditions in the atmosphere and then basically getting wrung out like a sponge over an individual area, and it just wasn’t moving a lot."

Tom Di Liberto, meteorologist with Climate Central

 

"The original forecast that we received on Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted three to six inches of rain in the Concho Valley and four to eight inches of rain in the Hill Country."

"The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts nonetheless."

Texas Division emergency management chief W. Nim Kidd 

 

"[The National Weather Service did warn of heavy rain and potential for flash flooding]."

"The problem with that is that, to most people in the area, flash flooding would mean one thing, not what it turned out to be, because they deal with flash floods all the time."

"There’s the potential for flash flooding, but there’s no expectation of a water wall of almost 30 feet high."

Texas Governor Greg Abbott  

A search and rescue volunteer holds a pink backpack and a "Camp Mystic" T-shirt in Comfort, Texas, on July 6, 2025. "I hope I find the person to return their belongings, not to find closure," he said. Photo by Danielle Villasana for The Washington Post via Getty Images

 

 The death toll of the disastrous Central Texas floods along the Guadalupe River is now in excess of 100 souls. Many more people remain missing as the search continues five days after the mammoth flash flood occurred that ranks as the deadliest freshwater floods experienced in decades. Young campers and their counsellors remain missing from the century-old Camp Mystic located on the banks of the river. There were 750 campers fast asleep in their bunk beds early morning of July 4. The night before they looked forward to the coming day, a celebration and fireworks, and special treats.

 

That anticipation was interrupted in the early morning hours leading up to July 4 celebrations when flash lightning, rumbling, cracking thunder and rain woke the sleepers. Those on high ground did not experience what the younger children, camped on lower ground did; the sound of the storm along with their cabin windows being smashed, the counsellors attempting to extract their young campers from the cabins to take them to higher ground, to evacuate Twins and Bubble Inn cabins as water from the south fork of the Guadalupe River surged and thrust to impossible heights. 

 

In days to follow, search teams frantically looked for missing children. Texas Governor Abbott, visiting Camp Mystic on Sunday spoke of what he saw as "nothing short of horrific -- to see what these young children went through". The National Weather Service had issued its first flood watch at 1:18 p.m. Thursday for areas along the river in Kerr County, packed with campers at some 18 summer camps, as well as thousands of people in tents and cabins. 1 to 2 inches (3 to 6 centimetres) of widespread rainfall was likely with "the potential for a lower probability but much hither impact flood event overnight", warned the Weather Service.

 

However, according to meteorologists, extraordinary conditions could not be factored into the caution. Plumes of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico were sent by atmospheric conditions deep into Texas -- into an area so prone to flooding, it has been named "Flash Flood Alley". The system stalled and then dumped catastrophic levels of rain into the area in a period of hours. Localities were given sufficient time to warn residents, the Weather Service maintained, but many locals reported never having seen the alerts.  

 

People climb over debris on a bridge atop the Guadalupe River after a flash flood swept through the area Saturday, July 5, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

 

Dalton Rice, city manager for Kerrville had gone out for a jog along the river around 3:30 a.m. seeing only light rain. By 5:20 a.m. the river had swollen dramatically, surging from 7 to 29 feet (2.1 8.8 metres) within a few hours. Back in Camp Mystic, girls in pyjamas were guided by their counsellors up a tall hill in the camp area. A helicopter eventually rescued them from a neighbouring camp. 

 

Camp Mystic director Richard Eastland, who had directed the camp since 1974, was helping to evacuate the youngest campers in the Bubble Inn cabin. He was found in a black SUV, along with three girls he tried to save. He died en route to hospital. It is estimated that over 850 people were saved from the floods -- according to local authorities. A little girl survived miraculously, clinging to a mattress as it floated down the river for hours.

 

Helicopters criss-crossed the skies while authorities vowed the search would continue until such time that everyone believed lost had been located. Rain was still on the horizon under cloudy skies with warning of another ominous "wall of water" threatening to return.  

 

Volunteers search for missing people along the banks of the Guadalupe River after recent flooding on Sunday, July 6, 2025, in Hunt, Texas. (AP Photo/Rodolfo Gonzalez)