The Post-Conflict Gaza Conundrum

February 20, senior officials from five Arab states will meet in Riyadh to discuss President Trump’s “Gaza Riviera” proposal, followed by an emergency Arab League summit in Egypt on March 4.

"On February 1, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, along with a representative of the Palestine Liberation Organization, delivered a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejecting the administration’s Gaza proposal. “Deportation of Palestinians from their land [will] push the region towards more tension, conflict and instability,” they warned. The missive repeated the perennial demand for a two-state solution but offered no alternatives to Trump’s ideas, nor any tangible Arab role in addressing the immediate challenges posed in Gaza."

"Subsequently, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz suggested that Trump’s proposal was not a definitive U.S. commitment, but rather a starting point for discussion on Gaza’s future disposition. “The president is engaging with our key allies in the region and asking for their input,” he told CBS News on February 5, noting that Trump’s approach would spur “the entire region to come with their own solutions”."

"Tomorrow, officials from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will convene for a mini-summit in Riyadh; Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas may attend as well. The meeting will give them a chance to fine-tune Egypt’s purported Gaza plan before rolling it out at the Cairo summit on March 4 and eventually presenting it to the Trump administration."

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Feb.17/25, AP

 

In a counter to President Donald Trump's proposal to wholesale depopulate the Gaza Strip, with the United States prepared to take it over, Egypt is in the process, in conjunction with other members of the Arab League, of developing an alternate plan to rebuild Gaza. According to Egypt's state-operated Al-Ahram newspaper, the proposal calls for the establishment of "secure areas" within Gaza where Palestinians can live  temporarily, as Egyptian and international construction firms remove the territory's ruined infrastructure and rebuild it.

 

The plan has been shared in discussion with European diplomats, along with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, according to both Western diplomats and two Egyptian officials. Discussions are also underway on how the reconstruction will be funded. An international conference on Gaza reconstruction may result, according to one of the Egyptian officials, along with an Arab diplomat. The total sum involved is unsurprisingly substantial, at a proposed $20 billion. The proposal remains in the early negotiating stage.

Central Gaza Strip, February 17/25    AP

These moves are in reflection of an international pushback over President Trump's call for the removal of the Gazan population of approximately two million Palestinians. According to Mr. Trump, the United States is prepared to take over the Gaza Strip, to rebuild it into a "Riviera of the Middle East". Palestinians, under his plan, will not be permitted to reenter the new Gaza. For their part, Palestinians have made it clear they have no intention of leaving Gaza, even as Egypt and Jordan have refused Mr. Trump's call for them to absorb the population of Gaza.

 

In Saudi Arabia on Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States was interested in hearing alternative proposals. "If the Arab countries have a better plan, then that's great", he said. The proposal, according to Egypt's Al-Ahram newspaper, is designed to "refute American President Trump's logic" and to counter "any other visions or plans that aim to change the geographic and demographic structure of Gaza Strip".  

An agreement on who will govern Gaza in the long term is one critical issue to be determined. The elimination of Hamas as a political or military force in the territory is top of the agenda for Israel, and for obvious reasons. Moreover, should there be consideration of Hamas returning to govern Gaza, international donors are hugely unlikely to contribute to any rebuilding of the Strip. And that would doubtless include both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Republic, who between them could handily proffer the funds for reconstruction.

 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attends the extended format meeting of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia on October 23, 2024. ALEXANDER NEMENOV/Pool via REUTERS