Defending Kharkiv Region

"Defensive battles are ongoing, fierce battles, on a large part of our border area."

"[Fighting in the Donetsk area is] no less intense [than in Kharkiv]."

"[The Kremlin planned to] spread our forces thin [by opening a second active front in Kharkiv]."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

A photo taken Saturday shows a man handing a neighbour his pills, in the aftermath of a Russian airstrike in Vovchansk, Ukraine. An intense, days-long campaign by Russia has stepped up pressure on a border region in northeastern Ukraine that Kyiv cannot afford to ignore, given that it is home to the country's second-largest city of Kharkiv. (Evgeniy Maloletka/The Associated Press)

In northeast Ukraine where Kyiv's military is locked in intense battles with the Russian army, a few hundred residents remain in Vovchansk, northeast Ukraine. The town, once home to 17,000, now hosts a 2,500 population now living in a town that has become a focal point in the pitched battles that engulf the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.

The fear is that Vovchansk may mirror what happened with Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where fierce fighting and scorched-earth tactics had forced withdrawals by Ukraine. Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Suniehubov, viewing Putin's troops advance, sees an effort to surround the town from three directions. Russia's sweeping advance last week in the area was made possible by Ukraine military's ammunition shortages and poorly built fortifications enabling Moscow to capture 106 square kilometres and seven villages last week alone.

 

A Vovchansk resident who fled Russian shelling is seen Monday after his arrival at an evacuation centre in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Syniehubov says some 7,500 people have been evacuated from Vovchansk and nearby areas. (Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Reuters)

 

The concern revolves around the potential for Ukrainian forces ending up pinned in the northeast even as heavy fighting continues in the Donetsk region. In both regions Ukrainian troops were locked in pitched battles with fighting taking place close to the eastern and northeastern border as Ukrainian soldiers try to restrain a significant Russian ground offensive, even as the Ukrainian military is outgunned and outnumbered.

The obvious Kremlin plan is to exploit Ukrainian weaknesses prior to an expected arrival of new military aid for Kyiv from its American and European supporters where the battlefield awaits refreshed gear and munitions in coming weeks and months, giving a window of opportunity in the interim to Moscow; a period that is the most dangerous for Ukraine yet, in this conflict. What measure of the promised military equipment has yet arrived in Ukraine is as yet unknown.

For months the 1,000-km front line has not moved; both sides have used long-range strikes for their war of attrition. According to the Ukraine general staff, Russian forces conducted at least 22 attacks over the previous 24 hours in two areas of the Kharkiv region, realizing 'tactical success'. To Russia's advantage the Kharkiv incursion is planned to pin Ukrainian forces, potentially drawing scarce reserves away from heavy battles in the Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar areas of Donetsk -- of strategic importance to Russia.

The opportunity for the Kremlin's troops to push deeper into Donetsk was enabled by the capture of the Donetsk city of Avdiivka; claiming control of the entire Donetsk region is one of the main war goals of the Kremlin. Should Ukraine prove unable to halt the advance by the Russian military, future conditions for a possible attack on Kharkiv City, Ukraine's second largest metropolis could result.

Such a successful manoeuvre could also help to create a 'buffer zone' to protect the Russian border city of Belgorod from frequent Ukrainian attacks which have been so embarrassing to Moscow.

Ukraine has sent reinforcements to the Kharkiv region after Russia launched both drones and a ground attack. Analysts say it could be Russia's attempt to stretch Ukraine's already-thin resources. Still from video, CBC