ECOWAS Threat of Niger Invasion

"A military intervention with no end in sight risks triggering a regional war, with catastrophic consequences for the vast Sahel that is already plagued by insecurity, displacement and poverty."

Mucahid Durmaz, senior analyst, global risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft 

"What we are witnessing today is both jihadi warring factions, the Islamic State group and [al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin] marking their territory because of the security void caused by the coup."

"This definitely should be seen in the context of the ongoing war between the two groups."

Wassim Nasr, journalist, senior research fellow, Soufan Center think tank

Mohamed Toumba, one of the soldiers who ousted Nigerian President Mohamed Bazoum, addresses supporters of Niger's ruling junta in Niamey, Niger, Sunday, Aug. 6, 2023. (Sam Mednick/AP)

 

The standoff between Niger and ECOWAS, the West African regional bloc, and the Niger coup leaders grows more tense day by day. Niger was viewed as one of the final democratic countries in the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert, a partner in the effort to counter growing jihadi violence linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group. Until the junta coup led by anti-Democratic forces in the Niger military who unseated the democratically elected Niger President Mohamed Bazoum.

ECOWAS had demanded that the junta, three weeks after the mutiny that ousted the president, release him and allow the country to return to its pre-coup state. The deadline passed, and ECOWAS issued fresh warnings that military intervention represents an option should their demands continue to be ignored. Leaving Nigeriens preparing for a possible invasion by regional countries.

A "standby force" has been activated for the purpose of restoring order in Niger. There are no signs the standoff is anywhere close to being defused, since the coup leaders remain defiant and ECOWAS determined to restore the presidency, although both sides have given signals of an openness to resolving the crisis through peaceful means. After rebuffing the bloc's efforts at talks, the junta claimed to be open to dialogue.

Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum smiles before a working lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron, Feb. 16, 2023 at the Elysee Palace in Paris.  (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

 

Instead of arriving at a bargaining table, the coup charged President Bazoum with "high treason", and took to recalling its ambassador from Ivory Coast. Should the bloc determine it will proceed with an invasion, it would likely be comprised of several thousand troops. The consequences, according to conflict experts, would have devastating results. Former colonial occupier of Niger, France and the U.S. have some 2,500 military personnel training the Niger military.

France and the United States, since the coup have suspended military operations, resulting in an increase in jihadi attacks. In an extremist ambush in the Tillaberi region, 17 soldiers and nearly two dozen more were wounded on Tuesday afternoon when a military detachment travelled between villages, representing the first major attack against the Niger army in six months; a worrying sign of potential escalation.

According to analysts, the longer the coup carries on, the less likely it is that an intervention will materialize, while the junta cements its grip on power. In the final analysis, forcing the international community to accept the status quo, much as it has done in Afghanistan. The 25 million Nigeriens live in one of the poorest countries in the world where residents hoped the new regime would forge a new path for the nation.

In the event, however, residents in the capital Niamey are being called upon to volunteer in assisting the army in the face of the threat by the West African regional bloc. An initiative spearheaded by locals in Niamey plans to recruit tens of thousands of volunteers from across the country to register for the Volunteers for the Defense of Niger.

Such volunteers would be expected to help with medical care and provide technical and engineering logistics, as well as fight, should the junta require that of them. "It's an eventuality. We need to be ready whenever it happens", Amsarou Bako, one of the volunteer group founders explained to Western media. Any Niger citizen over 18 years of age is asked to register, the list to be given to the junta to call upon volunteers if needed.

"We do not give a damn about ECOWAS. ECOWAS has been tailor-made for the presidents in power. And we do not need it." 

"Whether ECOWAS intervenes or not, Niger is ready for all options. We are ready. Whatever ECOWAS decides, we are ready."

Omar Amadou, Niamey resident

Supporters of Niger’s ruling junta gather at the start of a protest called to fight for the country’s freedom and push back against foreign interference in Niamey, Niger, Aug. 3, 2023. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)