The Temper of the Times : Russia/NATO/U.S./Ukraine

"We are concerned about the build-up of the U.S. and NATO military forces directly near the Russian borders, as well as the conduct of large-scale exercises, including unplanned ones."

"[Russia is prepared to take] military measures responding to aggressive [Western actions in Ukraine, to] react toughly to unfriendly steps."

"Russia is against bloodshed, it wants to resolve issues by political and diplomatic means, but with security guarantees."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Servicemen walk in a trench at the line of separation, Luhansk region, controlled by Russian-backed separatists, eastern Ukraine, December 9, 2021.  Alexei Alexandrov

Russia's defence minister, Sergey Shoygu, spoke of American companies "preparing a provocation with chemical components in Eastern Ukraine", its intentions clearly violently antagonistic to Greater Russia's relations with its near and dear neighbours. Another symptom of which is the eight thousand American troops deployed in Eastern Europe. Paranoia in close company with hyperbolic threats of reaction should the West commit to aggressing Russia.

Of course to the casual onlooker 8,000 American troops arrayed against an estimated 100,000 Russian counterpart troups might not appear much of an even battlefield, but such matters are obviously in the eye of the beholder. This is, after all, Russia's part of the world, and it is beyond alarming to view the encroachment by the West in Russia's near-abroad, for which it has future plans that are effectively being challenged.

This new cat-and-mouse game of challenge and counter-challenge, where each protagonist declares themselves positioning for the purpose of sovereign rights on the one hand and protection of same for other principals on the other has been heating up for years. The buildup of U.S. and NATO forces in Russia's garden is not the least bit appreciated. It began decades ago, in fact, with Ronald Reagan's vision of the U.S. Strategic Defense Initiatiive; 'Star Wars'.

Vladimir Putin is straightforward in his warning that should the West continue its "obviously aggressive stance" Moscow would respond as it must, with no option but to hit back with "appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures". And Russia's recent upgrading of its military-technical apparatus may very well rival that of the United States at this point. Neither of necessity has a wish to actually and actively engage in combat.

 

President Joe Biden speaks as he meets virtually via a secure video conference with Putin from the Situation Room at the White House on Dec. 7. Putin urged the West to make a legal pledge not to deploy forces and weapons to Ukraine. Adam Schultz/The White House via AP

Both imagine a scenario where bluff and hyperbole will cause the other to back down, preparing to save face with some measure of compromise. The issue for Russia is how to deflect Western concern over its intentions with respect to Ukraine, a neighbouring country that Russia has historically considered an integral part of its own geography, counting on its shared history and Slavic origins to soften Ukraine's resolve to remain fully sovereign and allied with the West.

Kyiv has been battling ethnic Russian Ukrainian separatists since 2014 in eastern Ukraine, struggling against a civil war situation where Russian troops have been deployed, along with military technology such as advanced missiles in support of the rebels who insist on the success of their mission to restore vast tracts of Ukrainian territory of the Donbas region's Luhansk and Donetsk as a gift to Russia.

Mr. Putin's demands that NATO cut off membership discussions with Ukraine and withdraw alliance forces from former Soviet states has made no inroads in NATO's intentions. He has also expressed his "extreme concern" over cruise missile deployments by the U.S. in Poland and Romania. "If this infrastructure moves further -- if U.S. and NATO missile systems appear in Ukraine -- then their approach time to Moscow will be reduced to seven or ten minutes". 

Clearly there is no trust between Russia and the West, and just as clearly each has been provocative in their relations impinging one on the other. Russia by threatening the independence of its neighbours with its clear intention of restoring to whatever degree it might manage, a semblance of its former Soviet Union status, the West by interfering in Mr. Putin's dream of a resurgent Russia with pliable satellite states meekly surrendering their sovereignty to a threatening neighbour.

Military vehicles and tanks from Poland, Italy, Canada, and the United States roll during a NATO military exercise in Latvia in September. NATO responded to Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula by bolstering its forces near Russia and conducting drills on the territory of its Baltic members. Roman Koksarov/AP