Tense Standoff : Russia/NATO/US

"We can continue this dialogue. It seems to me that's the main thing."

"Russia will prepare its considerations literally within the next days, within a week, and we'll pass them on to the American side for consideration."

"We cannot help but be concerned about the prospects of Ukraine possibly joining NATO, because this would undoubtedly be followed by the placement of relevant military contingents, bases and weapons threatening us."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

 

"I made [it] very clear if in fact he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences, severe consequences, economic consequences like ones he's never seen."

"His immediate response was he understood that."

U.S. President Joe Biden

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a ceremony at the Kremlin's Alexander Hall in Moscow, on December 1, 2021. (Photo by Grigory SYSOYEV / SPUTNIK / AFP)

U.S. Intelligence is convinced that the Russian troop buildup on the border between Ukraine and Russia portends Russia's inevitable invasion of the country that was once an integral part of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has already had a bitter taste of the Kremlin's intentions, in the Donbass, eastern Ukraine where ethnic Russian Ukrainians declared their allegiance to Russia and a civil war was initiated. President Putin lost no time annexing the Crimean peninsula, and though Russia has always denied having any of its military deployed in training and fighting alongside the insurgents, their presence is undeniable.

Some years back President Putin, nostalgic for the days of the USSR, invaded Georgia and annexed two of its provinces, the world yawned and expressed both surprise and censure. Russia's more recent muscle-flexing and the alarm felt in the Baltic countries since 2014 that have no wish to return to their former state of Russian control and the loss of their sovereignty has drawn NATO into the picture, promising to protect Ukraine against a full-scale invasion by Russia, though the U.S. made it clear there would be no troop commitment from them.

Other NATO members, however, have deployed their military in a number of former Soviet satellite nations both to train their militaries and to leave the indelible message that Ukraine is not alone. Now, following the two-hour video meeting between the American and Russian presidents, further economic sanctions were threatened should Russia make its move, as seems inevitable. Ironically, the current contretemps between Russia and NATO which may turn into an actual confrontation, had its counterpart in reverse during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

"You know, it really could come to that [the tense occasion in 1962 during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, in Cuba when then-President John F. Kennedy and then-President Nikita Khrushchev, as much as dared one another into a nuclear standoff]."

"If things continue as they are, it is entirely possible by the logic of events to suddenly wake up and see yourself in something similar."

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov

There does seem, at certain points, and the current situation is one of them, that the world stands on the brink of all-out war, at a time when formidably destructive weapons are in protagonists' hands. The Russian statement that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a more serious, wider outbreak of hostilities bringing in much of Europe and beyond, seems feasible. During the Cuban Missile Crisis it was the USSR  that had stationed Soviet nuclear missiles on the island. This was clearly American geographic territory.

 

Leading the United States to bring in a naval blockade in prevention of Moscow shipping additional missiles to the Caribbean, and the demand that the ones in place be removed. Now it is NATO -- where the alliance, in assuring Ukraine, not yet a NATO country, but aspiring to join the 27-member group with its one-for-all, all-for-one military credo -- that  might consider deploying missiles in Ukraine, right next to, and targeting Russia. If Russia has nightmare scenarios keeping it awake at night, this eventuality might very well be the crown of them.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the front line on 6 December  EPA

Ukraine, on the other hand, has good reason to fear an invasion by the tens of thousands Russian troops gathered in proximity to its borders. An ominous gathering that the Kremlin insists is simply a defensive move, with no offensive intention whatever. Kyiv now has its expectations that Western military allies will support it in this obviously threatening situation, irrespective of the American position of not sending in its troops but relying primarily on economic consequential threats. And the possibility that the EU might agree painfully on stopping Russia's new gas pipeline to Europe.

 

President Biden, in the meanwhile, has unilaterally discussed with allies the potential for a meeting between Russia and NATO countries for the purpose of discussing the concerns expressed by Moscow and possible methods of "bringing down the temperature on the eastern front". A meeting of obvious great importance to all sides, but one which the U.S. administration somehow overlooked first discussing with Moscow. 

 

When Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked would Russia object to the participation of other NATO members in such a gathering, he responded, "We cannot say, because there is no understanding of how all this will be arranged". 

 

Russian exercises in Crimea in March 2021 triggered widespread concerns in the West  Getty Images

 

"I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people."

"Today, these words may be perceived by some people with hostility. They can be interpreted in many possible ways. Yet, many people will hear me. And I will say one thing – Russia has never been and will never be ”anti-Ukraine“. And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide."

Russian President Vladimir Putin “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians”