Beware Moscow's Eagle Eye

"Russia is not harbouring any aggressive plans. It would be wrong to suggest otherwise."

"Complying with the Minsk agreements will certainly be the best security guarantee since the lack of progress in their implementations remains a significant irritant and a catalyst that leads to heightened tension in Europe."

Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin spokesman

Ukrainian border guards patrol their country's frontier with Belarus in the Volyn region.

 

That's certainly reassuring, a good thing to know, since for years outside observers have commiserated with Ukraine over what appeared on the surface, and even under the surface, was that the Kremlin was actively engaged in undermining Ukraine's sovereignty, claiming eastern Ukraine as Russian territorial entitlements. To the extent that the world has been under the impression that Vladimir Putin ordered peculiarly-uniformed members of the Russian military to the Donbass to encourage ethnic Russian-Ukrainians to rebel against Kyiv, to separate the region and return it to Russia.

So that when the Kremlin declared the return of Crimea to Russia correcting a historical error in state judgement, this event, so inconvenient for Ukraine and so unsettling to international law was not destabilizing at all and an affront to neighbourly relations in East Europe, but a realignment long overdue awaiting correction. And nor was the shooting down of a Malaysian passenger airliner over Ukraine's eastern region the fault of separatists by the misuse of a Buk missile, merely a 'misunderstanding'.

Separatist forces in Ukraine's east are being roused from their years-long passive waiting period for action, with Russia now initiating a new chapter in its sinister war against Ukraine by leading "large-scale military exercises", Kyiv once again noted with intensifying concern over a near-future invasion of Russian forces. In the Donbass region areas under the separatists backed by Russia there were flare-ups as Moscow began moving troops toward the border with Ukraine.

Ukrainian military intelligence alerted that separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas were mobilizing forces, drawing in their reservists to participate in drills under the direction of the Russian military. But no attack was being planned, the Kremlin said reassuringly. Just some war-games rehearsals. Nothing much to see here, after all....

On the other hand, Moscow is annoyed with Kyiv, chiding the government of Ukraine for not being serious enough in implementing the 'peace accords' forced on it by the Kremlin to put a temporary halt to the grim business of military hostilities between Ukraine and the ethnic-Russian separatists in the east. There is always the reality that both adversaries from time to time disturb the peace of the 'peace' accord launching missiles at one another to the great displeasure of civilians living between the demarcation line.

 

Russian tanks and equipment in the Pogonovo training area near Voronezh, Russia    Source: Maxar/Getty Images

Of course Moscow denies any military presence in eastern Ukraine. Simply that Russia deploys forces in the Donbass and has dispatched senior officials so that local forces can be properly trained in best wartime techniques, does not ipso facto represent 'evidence' of anything whatever. And it is nothing short of incidental that Russia and China have agreed to boost military co-operation; their territorial ambitions do happen to coincide as do their methods of softening up the 'enemy' before leaping into the fray.

It is not their actions that are disruptive and threatening, but the provocative actions of other countries incapable of minding their own business in their own geographic areas that cause unrest and chaos. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu pointed to an "increased number" of American aircraft patrolling close by his country's eastern border; a decided threat to both Moscow and Beijing. Neither Ukraine nor Taiwan are anyone's business but Russia's and China's.

The underlying threat of the U.S. bombers 'rehearsing nuclear strikes' on Russia from two locations another point of contention, with the planes flying within 21 km of the border. The Kremlin also excoriated Washington for its plans to forward weapons and military advisers to Ukraine, as a symbol of solidarity. This would "definitely lead to a further escalation on the front line", warned Dmitry Peskov.

Russian units have been on exercises in Crimea    Getty Images