What a Tangled Web We Weave

"We are in a uniquely complicated spot."

"Were being borne along a current with very few options. So the idea that we can craft a way forward easily is wrong."

"They don't see it in Chinese thinking as an oppressive thing, they just see themselves in more benign terms as the leading civilization in the world, and that they ought to have an important say in the affairs of the world, and even a dominant position."

"But it's not a Nazi-like military conquest of the world."

Gordon Houlden, director, China Institute, University of Alberta 

"It's been said that China doesn't have allies, it has markets."

"I attribute the Cold War spirit and the Cold War stresses in largest part to China's actions, as well as the tone of their 'wolf warrior diplomacy', which isn't very diplomatic."

Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, senior fellow, former member, Canada-China Joint committee on Science and Technology

"It will require much more thought, it will require much more management of foreign policy. That will be difficult for everybody It'll be particularly difficult for Canada because we haven't put much thought into our foreign policy for a long time, and we're going to pay a price in terms of the learning curve that we have to go up."

"That's the first step, [former Canadian Parliamentarians and diplomats  urging Canada to release Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in exchange for Canadian detainees Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor; gross capitulation to a belligerent China] when I talked about China's assault on our sovereignty and our autonomy. It's sapping the will, it causes countries to feel that it's just impossible, it's too much work."

"And that was never Canada's approach in the past, but I worry that we've succumbed to that to a certain extent."

David Mulroney, former Canadian ambassador to China, 2009-2012

Illustration, Craig Stephens

 

In the United States a sweeping bill was tabled to lay the groundwork for America's strategy to oppose China's global rise. The Innovation and Competition Act, notes strategic industries such as quantum computing, advanced semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, highlighted in a recommendation that the U.S. increase public support through commitments to deeper protection for critical materials, the expansion of research spending, and strengthening of cyber defence capabilities. 

The legislation includes Canada, where American officials schedule a role in their China policy for Canada, plans that are deeply consequential in the rough sketch they portray of Canadian foreign policy unfolding in the coming decades as U.S. officials gear up to a protracted conflict with China for global supremacy: the new Cold War. It is a war being fought in stages on countless fronts including cyber warfare, military expansionism, technological research, culture, infrastructure, and intellectual property.

Canada has been inexorably drawn into the long struggle between the two giants and it is clear that Canada's involvement will continue as competition gathers momentum in reflection of Canada's close ties to its neighbour. Ottawa will be forced to navigate a growing divide between China and the U.S., mandating policy choices encompassing everything from trade to national security.  But the truth is, it is not only America's struggle that has invested Canada with the need to protect itself from China's grasping feelers intending to raid other nations' intellectual property.

In 2020 Canada signed an agreement with the U.S. that would establish new supply chains for critical minerals and rare earths in an effort to respond to China's market dominance in those areas. Even so, the Canadian government remains stalled over a decision whether it will green-light China's telecommunications giant Huawei with a role in building Canada's next-generation 5G mobile network, despite other members of the Five Eyes intelligence network having ruled Huawei Technologies out of theirs, for security reasons.

 

The American legislation speaks of a "shared vision of democracy" to maintain the "rules-based international order established after WW11". Stronger ties between Western allies are meant to be accelerated and firmed up; the loosening of export regimes protecting "critical defence-related technology" between the U.S. and Canada, "establishing open and transparent planning with Canada on infrastructure, cooperating on Arctic defence and energy connectivity, combating industrial espionage", and deepening intelligence sharing "particularly in 5G telecommunications technology". 

This, in response to an increasingly bellicose and authoritarian Xi Jinping whose plans to guide China to occupy the position currently held by the United States as the world's greatest power, succeeded in creating an American bipartisan agreement no other issue has moved Congress to set aside political differences between Republicans and Democrats. The declining prestige of the U.S. resulting from two successive administrations' confusing signals to their traditional allies has signalled to President Xi that an opportunity is opening for the Chinese Communist Party.

President Xi points with pride to Beijing's "socialism with Chinese characteristics"; a commitment to communist ideology, yet stripped of Marxist elements to favour capitalist-oriented policies that have succeeded in establishing China's authority as the world's greatest manufacturing and trade colossus. China has miraculously risen as an economic arbiter, with President Xi downplaying its none-too-subtle export of political ideology and cultural highlights. 

 

In expansion and exploitation of client countries with its Belt and Road initiative in rapid expansion of road, rail, sea and telecommunication links with Europe, Asia and Africa; Beijing's modern version of its fabled Silk Road enterprise of yore is advancing China's interests. China, shielded by its membership in the World Trade Organization has adroitly managed to undermine multilateral institutions, in the process awarding itself the rewards of more liberalized trade. 

In the process, giving ample examples of why it should not be trusted. President Xi promised that China had no intention of militarizing the artificial islands Beijing built in the disputed South China Sea, and then proceeded to do precisely that. Assuring it had no intention of spying on foreign companies, Beijing continues to indulge in systematic industrial espionage campaigns, surgically purloining intellectual property. China's Ministry of State Security was officially linked to the hack of Microsoft email software where 400,000 servers globally had been infiltrated

The distortion of multilateral institutions through gaining positions of power within groups dictating international settlements or which set diplomatic and industrial guidelines has been achieved by deliberate design. At least 40 UN institutions focused on engineering, maritime law, health, finance, atomic energy and a range of other areas sees Chinese nationals occupying leadership positions. Including placements at the International Telecommunications Union, Industrial Development Organization, and Food and Agriculture Association, for leverage in international systems of trade and oversight.

Incredibly, despite all the problems that Canada has experienced with China, from cyber espionage, to intelligence robbery, and gravest of all the arrest, incarceration and sentencing of Canadian citizens for purported crimes, by a vengeful China, trade ties between the two countries continue to flourish. Canadian exports to China increased eight percent to $25 billion, not quite a match for the 75 percent of Canadian exports that enter the United States but still conferring on China the position of Canada's 2nd largest trading partner.

Former Ambassador Mulroney recommends separating Canada from China in the areas of sensitive national security -- such as artificial intelligence research or critical minerals, and continuing to partner in other areas such as agriculture and climate change. That would, of course, depend largely on how much China values agriculture trade as opposed to opportunities to continue its thievery of technological research and intelligence.