On Their Own : Afghan Defence Preparedness

Handover ceremony at Camp Anthonic, from U.S. Army to Afghan Defense Forces in Helmand province, Afghanistan May 2, 2021   Reuters

"There was a thunderstorm of heavy weapons and blasts in the city and the sound of small arms was like someone was making popcorn."

"I took all my family members to the corner of the room, hearing the heavy blasts and bursts of gunfire as if it was happening behind our walls."

Mulah Jan, resident of a suburb of the Helmand provincial capital Lashkar Gah

 

"Women in Afghanistan who raise their voices have been oppressed and ignored."

"'The majority of Afghan women will be silent. They know they will never receive any support."

"Women will be sent into hiding, they'll be forced to wear the burqa to go out of their homes."

Sultana Karimi, 24, Kabul, Ms Sadat's Beauty Salon

 

"Your question: the Afghan army, do they stay together and remain a cohesive fighting force or do they fall apart? I think there’s a range of scenarios here, a range of outcomes, a range of possibilities."

"On the one hand you get some really dramatic, bad possible outcomes. On the other hand, you get a military that stays together and a government that stays together."

"Which one of these options obtains and becomes reality at the end of the day? We frankly don’t know yet. We have to wait and see how things develop over the summer."

"[There is] at least still the possibility [of a negotiated political settlement between the government in Kabul and the Taliban. This would avoid the] massive civil war [some fear]."

Gen Mark Milley, chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Afghan veteran

Handover ceremony at Camp Anthonic, from U.S. Army to Afghan Defense Forces in Helmand province, Afghanistan May 2, 2021   Reuters

General Milley is not delusional, just less than frankly honest; he presents an opinion laced with hope when he knows, from experience, there is little of it. The expectations are that with the eventual withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by 11 September, the government and its police and military combined will be functionally incapable of holding their own against the religious fervor of the Taliban to return the country to an Islamist state. Many Afghans are steeling themselves, resigned to the inevitable. The international community, the U.S. just want out of the country and who can blame them?

Government forces are too hampered by fear of the slaughter that awaits those who resist the Taliban resolve to re-conquer the country they know is absent adequate defence against their violent attacks. The government military apparatus, though trained in the art of warfare, is no match for the guerrilla, no-holds-barred techniques of Taliban tactics, unsqueamish over mass casualties to attain their end. The ideological passion overrides any national loyalty on the part of soldiers in whom the legendary Taliban unconcern over death and martyrdom inspires fear.

Afghan families leave their houses after fighting between government forces and the Taliban in Helmand Province

Afghanistan's Helmand province's capital is one more battle distant from total Taliban control. It took mere days with the withdrawal of U.S. troops to inspire the Taliban to send its fighters into heavy combat with the military, sending thousands of residents in Nawa district fleeing the conflict and still dozens were killed or wounded. Taliban fighters penetrated Lashkar Gah more deeply than an offensive of last fall, leading local politicians to fear the capture of their city.

 For international backers of the Afghan government the offensive represented an exercise in whether Afghan forces could muster the strength and determination to stand on their own against the insurgency. Breaking through government defences southwest of Helmand's capital of Lashkar Gah the Taliban fighters reached a western suburb of the city, easily overrunning a dozen checkpoints, killing soldiers and injuring others, reported Attaullah Afghan, president of the provincial council.

An Afghan police official keeps watch during a battle with Taliban militants in the Marjah district of Helmand Province . Photo: AFP/Noor Mohammed

Abdul Wali, a resident of Bolan, on the outskirts of the capital, said: "The Taliban took control of our neighbourhood yesterday and marched towards the capital". Afghan forces, on the other hand, said they halted the Taliban advance, killed dozens of their fighters and remain fully confident they would be able to regain what had been lost. The Taliban, claimed Brig.Gen. Sami Sadat -- commander of the Afghan army's local 215th Maiwand corps. -- would be unable to advance any further amidst the arrival of reinforcements.

The local hospital operated by the international charity Emergency, stated that 11 of the 65 casualties that had been admitted had died. The United States handed over its last military installation but one, on the weekend. Helmand had once held dozens of camps and operating bases. The province was host to 30,000 NATO troops at the height of the international campaign. Once patrolled by British troops, the rural districts are now largely under control of the Taliban. 

U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to remove all troops before the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, refusing to pull out by the May 1 deadline that Donald Trump as president had agreed to, has led the Taliban to accuse the current president of breaching a previous agreement. In retaliation they threaten a renewed spring offensive. The commitment of the international community through NATO and with the blessing of the United Nations, to rescue Afghanistan from the Taliban has failed spectacularly.

Afghan Taliban fighters and villagers attend a gathering as they celebrate a peace deal signed between US and Taliban. Photo: Wali Sabawoon / NurPhoto via AFP