Sinister Plots on the Boil

"The Kremlin has a growing interest in dominating the Arctic, where it sees Russia as in competition with Canada. This means Canada can anticipate escalations in formation warfare, particularly from hacktivists fomenting cyber-attacks."
"Perceived as one of Russia's chief adversaries in the Arctic region, Canada is a prime target in the information wars, with Russia potentially even meddling in the October 2019 federal election. Ottawa should be ready for a new surge in cyberattacks, disinformation and propaganda levelled against Canada in the near future."
Sergey Sukhankin, senior fellow, Jamestown Foundation

Canadian Armed Forces members prepare for a Bandvagn-206 course in Gasbakken, Norway during Trident Juncture on Oct. 26, 2018. (Cpl. Lisa Fenton/Canadian Armed Forces)

Now teaching at the University of Calgary, Mr. Sukhankin has produced a study predicting that Russian interference in the federal election campaign is likely to occur pursuant to the Kremlin's long-term interest in competition in the Arctic, specifically targeting Canada as an opponent -- with both countries claiming sovereign jurisdiction over long-disputed regions in the Arctic.

Despite the good chance that such interference may occur, Mr. Sukhankin also feels confident in predicting that any such interference will have little actual impact in Canada. He characterizes Canadian society as more homogeneous in its political attitudes, less fractured and openly hostile than for example the United States, using as examples the American presidential ballot and Britain's Brexit referendum.

Moscow's disinformation campaigns, Mr. Sukhankin emphasizes, are primarily designed for internal Russian purposes, to gather support for Vladimir Putin and his political party, more than they are capable of interfering with the Canadian voting process. The issue is an effort on the part of the Kremlin to present the "ugly side of democracy and liberalism" to Russians, portraying Canada as faultily influenced by the United States and the Canadian "Ukrainian lobby".

Canada is a nation of immigrants. Over time it has received massive numbers of people leaving their countries of origin to become Canadian citizens. Some would argue with a degree of accuracy that Canada has a "Sikh lobby", a "Chinese lobby", an "Indian lobby", along with the "Ukrainian lobby" that the Kremlin refers to in obvious connection with sanctions imposed on Russia related to its proxy war with Ukraine. There is a "French lobby", an "Italian lobby"; take your pick.

A soldier holds a machine gun as he patrols the Russian northern military base on Kotelny island, beyond the Arctic circle on April 3, 2019.MAXIME POPOV/AFP/Getty Images

This is an argument that falls into line with previous warning cautions issued by Canada's intelligence agencies. The government of Canada appointed a group of senior public servants whose mandate it is to guard against election interference during the campaign by foreign elements. Obviously, the cautions relate directly to the potential of interference emanating from Russian sources, much as was the experience during the last presidential campaign in the United States.

Should the commission find reason for alarm they are to brief members of all of Canada's political parties respecting possible threats. They have been given the mandate to publicly sound an alarm against perceived malign acts of interference deemed a fundamental threat. To its domestic audience, the Kremlin seeks to portray Canada as "Russophobic", a country to be distrusted, unjustly critical of Russia reuniting with the Crimea.

“Russia uses patriotism and this anti-fascist sentiment to convince the domestic audience and Russian-speakers abroad, primarily in Ukraine, Belarus and the three Baltic states, that Russia is the only country to stand against far-right sentiments and nationalism. This is basically used by the Russian side to garner domestic solidarity", emphasized Mr. Sukhankin.

Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chrystia Freeland, of Ukrainian descent, is characterized as a fascist sympathizer. Russian propaganda points out that her grandfather was a Nazi anti-Semite, editor and producer of a Nazi-aligned newspaper during the Second World War, that supported fascist Germany. For her part, she has never disowned her grandfather's legacy.

Canada's role with NATO, stationing  troops in Latvia as part of a rapid-response program meant to alert the Kremlin in no uncertain terms that should it consider extending its threat to an independent Ukraine to other Baltic states, it would have NATO to contend with, has not endeared Canada to Russia.

Members of 3rd battalion, Royal 22nd Regiment, prepare to roll out in BV-206 vehicles during Exercise Trident Juncture, in Gåssbakken, Norway, on Oct. 26, 2018. (Master Cpl. Pat Blanchard/Canadian Armed Forces)