Have I Got A Deal For You!

"[This deal will prove to be a] major turning point in the history of Iran, the region and the world, providing clear recognition on the part of world powers of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program, while preserving the national rights of your people and confirming the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran."                                                                                                                            Syrian President Bashar al-Assad : congratulatory letter to Tehran

"The path towards the Iran deal was paved through thousands of victims in Syria and Iraq [through Iran's aid and use of its proxy Hezbollah in aiding the Syrian and Iraqi regimes against their rebellious citizens]."
Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt

"Today is the end of oppressive sanctions. The chain of sanctions is broken. Honorable Iranian nationals, all sanctions, including on missiles, will be lifted on days of implementation. Not suspended, lifted."
"At first they wanted us to have 100 centrifuges; now we will have 6,000. They wanted restrictions of 25 years; now it’s 8. Fordo had to be closed; now we will have 1,000 centrifuges there."                                                                                 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

"We are not measuring this deal by whether it is changing the regime inside of Iran. We’re not measuring this deal by whether we are solving every problem that can be traced back to Iran, whether we are eliminating all their nefarious activities around the globe. We are measuring this deal — and that was the original premise of this conversation, including by Prime Minister Netanyahu — Iran could not get a nuclear weapon. That was always the discussion. And what I’m going to be able to say, and I think we will be able to prove, is that this by a wide margin is the most definitive path by which Iran will not get a nuclear weapon, and we will be able to achieve that with the full cooperation of the world community and without having to engage in another war in the Middle East."
"And what we were able to do is to say to them, ‘Given your past behavior, given our strong suspicion and evidence that you made attempts to weaponize your nuclear program, given the destabilizing activities that you’ve engaged in in the region and support for terrorism, it’s not enough for us to trust when you say that you are only creating a peaceful nuclear program. You have to prove it to us.’ And so this whole system that we built is not based on trust; it’s based on a verifiable mechanism, whereby every pathway that they have is shut off."
U.S. President Barack Obama

Iran's Arak reactor will be redesigned so that it does not produce weapons-grade plutonium (AFP Photo/Atta Kenare)

Under this agreement yet to be verified by each side in the negotiations Iran is to cut its uranium centrifuges from 19,000 to over five thousand and remain committed at that level for a ten-year period. The enrichment is to take place at the Natanz facility. Fordo, the nuclear facility which existence was kept secret for years will be permitted to retain an additional 1,044 centrifuges not for uranium enrichment. The country's stockpile of low-enriched uranium to be reduced to 300 kilograms and remain at that level for 15 years.

Research and development activities will face limitations on its nuclear dimension; those that do take place are not to lead to the accumulation of enriched uranium. The Arak reactor is to be redesigned to make it incapable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. The Additional Protocol, for closer inspections including the potential of military bases inspection is to be recognized by Iran. High-tech surveillance equipment employed by the International Atomic Energy Agency will be put in place, and the IAEA is to have access to facilities like uranium mines and centrifuge workshops for up to 25 years.

Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday. Credit Leonhard Foeger/Reuters

Once verification has been satisfied through the IAEA of implementation of the points of the agreement a UN Security Council resolution endorsing the final deal is to terminate all provisions of previous resolutions leading to sanctions. U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the Republic of Iran's financial system and other areas are to be lifted. Once the IAEA renders its "broad conclusion" that all Iranian nuclear activities are meant for peaceful purposes restrictions on arms sales can be lifted five years on, eight years for ballistic missiles.

A Joint Commission is to be created comprised of the permanent members of the Security Council (Russia, China, United States, France, Britain) plus Germany and Iran. A majority vote would be required to determine whether a violation of the provisions noted above has taken place. Iran's ability to produce as much nuclear fuel as it wishes after the 15-year agreement, and its permission to conduct research on advanced centrifuges after the 8th year comprises a few sticky points.

The eventual lifting of an embargo in the import/export of conventional arms and ballistic missiles was won by Tehran. The departing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, warned of the future problems inherent in such a move.

 

Delegates from Iran and a group of six nations led by the United States in Vienna on Tuesday after agreeing to an accord to significantly limit Tehran’s nuclear ability. Credit Pool photo by Carlos Barria

The fear among skeptics and those critical of any such deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is that Iran will be free to use the billions it will be entitled to receive post-sanctions relief to continue building its regional military power platform. One of the multitude of reasons why the agreement will come face to face with critical opposition from Congressional Republicans and some Democrats alike. In this agreement's success in being approved by both sides in the negotiations, the U.S. expresses satisfaction that its diplomacy has succeeded in averting another war in the tinderbox of the Middle East.

Now that this is as close to becoming a fait accompli as its critics have feared, particularly those in the Middle East, the Obama administration is faced with a task of reassuring Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, America's long-time regional allies, alongside Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu that they can calm down, they will be perfectly safe with Iran's agreement to behave responsibly, an assurance that the countries most familiar with the history of regional relations as pertains to Iran and its hugely distrusted manipulations will take it as an assault against their historically-informed intelligence from a country which has no real idea of the fundamental reality they face.

They will point out with unerring accuracy that the requirement to halt research and development of its faster centrifuges has not been achieved; other than certain limitations; R&D is legitimized. As soon as the deal goes into effect there is a provision that Iran may commence testing of the fast "IR-8 on single centrifuge machines and its intermediate cascades" and will "commence testing of up to 30 IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges after 8-1/2 years". Gone also was the requirement for Iran to submit to "anywhere, anytime" inspections of any facilities suspected of nuclear-related activities for questionable purposes. Advance warning and "consultation" is to take place.

Finally, there has been no outline established regarding procedures to be set into place for effective response should Iran be in violation of any of the areas under discussion and agreement, leading to the assurance that the international community would be enabled to react with speed sufficient to thwart that dreaded breakout to producing a bomb. These are in the realm of inconvenient details, obviously.

Iran's negotiators (second and third from left) have good reason to be happier than their Western counterparts.