A Bargain With the Devil

US Secretary of State John Kerry, left, talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. (AP/Susan Walsh, Pool, File)

As the June 30 deadline looms nigh for completing the agreement that the P-5+1 have been negotiating with Iran, Iran itself seems to be closing the door to cooperation and reasonableness; although neither are attributes the Islamic Republic is known to indulge in with Western powers in particular, beyond smiling graciously in a pantomime of taking reason and cooperation seriously.

The noise coming out of Tehran is spectacularly depressing, but not unexpected. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei yesterday solidly trounced the very notion of a long-term freeze for his country on nuclear research. His majlis announced a few days earlier a bill to ban international inspectors from one of the major purposes of the proposed agreement; unrestricted access to nuclear sites by IAEA inspectors.

On comments broadcast on the country's state television Ayatollah Khamenei stated that Iran is prepared to sign a final deal with the proviso that all economic sanctions are lifted entirely as a sign of goodwill on the part of the Western negotiating partners. That would certainly free up badly needed financial resources for the country to continue its nuclear trajectory toward weapons production. 

Billions of dollars currently restricted would give the relief to the economy to lift it into a state of plenty; plenty to forge on with its nuclear plans, and plenty with which to continue funding and arming its proxy terrorist militias. The Security Council members and Germany cannot, however, even be certain that it will be Khamenei who in the end will be sitting in ultimate power, given rumours that he is near death thanks to prostate cancer.

The bill to ban access for UN inspectors to military sites and nuclear scientists has the full support of Iran's lawmakers. Since this is the only means by which assurance can be given that Iran would be upholding its part in the final agreement, denial of access more or less denies the fulfilment of any agreement, much less its passage.

Moreover, Washington's much-discussed and -criticized "one-year breakout" scenario is a dud as a time frame for a dash for the bomb with the breakage of the accord. Alan Kuperman, coordinator of the Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project at University of Texas spoke disparagingly of the calculations that led to the conclusion, terming them "laughable". More likely, he has written, that breakout time would increase by a month, to three months from the current two.

And should the negotiators agree to Iran's demand for a total and swift end to sanctions Tehran's ability to proceed to breakout would represent "mere days". Iran doesn't appear to be too wedded to solving the impasse that has developed between its nuclear plans and the concerns of the international community over its intentions. But France, Britain, China, Russia, the United States and Germany are all committed to the thought that they will have accomplished something concrete and useful in extending an 'all-clear' for a ten-year period with a signed accord.

They are so anxious to persuade Iran to sign, despite Tehran thundering its displeasure at external interference in internal affairs, that they are attempting to persuade Iran that they are prepared to provide it with assistance in a completely civil nuclear program. A draft proposal is appended to the agreement entitled "Civil Nuclear Cooperation" promising to supply Iran with light-water nuclear reactors instead of its nearly completed heavy-water facility at Arak, which would produce enough plutonium for several bombs a year if completed as planned.

Iran’s heavy water nuclear facility is backdropped by mountains near the central city of Arak. (AP/ISNA, Hamid Foroutan, File)

The June 19 draft makes an offer to "establish an international partnership" that would build the facility into one less proliferation-capable, and as a result far less worrying to the international community. A plan that would leave Iran in "the leadership role as the project owner and manager."

The draft holds out promise for "arrangements for the assured supply and removal of nuclear fuel for each reactor provided" offering aid in the "construction and effective operation" of the reactors and related hardware.

A group of Iranians chant slogans in a demonstration over negotiations with world powers on Iran’s nuclear program. (AP/Ebrahim Noroozi)

In addition, it offers to cooperate with Iran in the fields of nuclear safety, nuclear medicine, research, nuclear waste removal and other peaceful applications. This makes bending over backward look like disinterest in the outcome of a dire situation. It hands to Iran, on a silver salver, all it could ever wish to achieve as a stable, well-governed country looking to advance its civil interests for the greater good of its citizens. 

Proving that bad-tempered blackmail inspiring fear remains an effective weapon against unwanted and irritating interventions on the part of powerfully nosy states which a fully sovereign country like Iran, invested in peaceful outcomes and human rights has every reason to resent. 

As much as it finds it ever so tiresome that Western do-gooders are continually pointing out its horrendous record on state executions many of which are on public display to assure the populace that their interests are well looked after.