Politic?

This is a blog dedicated to a personal interpretation of political news of the day. I attempt to be as knowledgeable as possible before commenting and committing my thoughts to a day's communication.

Friday, April 03, 2015

Hosanna!

"[The parameters of the deal are an] alarming departure from the White House’s initial goals."
"After visiting with our partners on the ground in the Middle East this week, my concerns about Iran’s efforts to foment unrest, brutal violence and terror have only grown."
"It would be naïve to suggest the Iranian regime will not continue to use its nuclear program, and any economic relief, to further destabilize the region."
U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner

"Lifting sanctions on Iran, including the arms embargo, would be an absolutely logical thing to do." "Of key importance to us is the delivery of the upgraded S-300 missiles to Iran… A contract to this effect could be resumed on terms acceptable to both Moscow and Tehran."
Igor Korotchenko, head, Global Arms Trade Analysis Center, Moscow think-tank

The S-300 anti-aircraft missile system at the Victory Parade, Red Square, 2009. Photo: Wikipedia.

"It would be bearish for oil eventually when the sanctions on Iran's oil exports come off, which permits Iran to send more oil into the world market."
"They have three-quarters of a million barrels per day of estimated unused upstream productive capacity currently, so that's kind of hanging over there. So depending on if and when the sanctions come off, and the market is still struggling to rebalance, that would just add more water to an already-overflowing bathtub."
Judith Dwarkin, chief energy economist, ITG Investment Research

Doesn't take long for capital markets and arms dealers and the oil industry to begin rubbing its hands in anticipation of ongoing deals. It obviously hardly matters to them with whom they are dealing; it's the bottom-line profit that is of moment, and morals and state terrorism is just one of those irrelevant things better left for others to concern themselves with. It's why we have responsible governments after all, isn't it?

Yes, that's true, when we have responsible governments. And, it would seem that Tehran and Moscow are fairly well matched in their capacity to look beyond such unnervingly irrelevant constructs as world stability, peaceful relations, mutual respect and trust, and when all that is nicely in place, why then, trade and commercial cooperation to further the interests of all concerned. But these two capitals signed a deal in January to expand 'defense' cooperation.

And high on the agenda is the matter resolving the prevention of Russia's S-300 surface-to-air missiles deliveries to Iran recently. Russian General Sergei Shoigu and Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan would like to put 'proceed' on the issue, stamped with mutual approval, getting past the irritation of sanctions soon to be lifted -- but never too soon for both.

The agreement relating to the $800-million contract for five S-300 batteries from Russia with love to Iran had been delayed in 2010 by then-President Dmitry Medvedev resulting from Iranian sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, an agreement adamantly opposed by both the U.S. and Israel. Russia has gone one further, offering to supply Iran with Antey-2500 missiles, representing an upgrade of the S-300 air defense system.

Obviously Vladimir Putin has shrugged off Benjamin Netanyahu's warning that Israel would destroy any Russian delivery of missiles to Syria.

The talks, newly concluded paving the way to a final deal by the end of June had Iranians boisterously celebrating in the streets of Tehran. It's questionable whether they really understand what precisely they're celebrating, and the mullahs obviously have no intention of spelling it out, but attainment of the atomic bombs they're anxious to begin stockpiling has no purpose other than to threaten and perhaps venture beyond threats. What else are those far-reaching ballistic missiles for?

"It is clear, the negotiations are not going well", warned senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham. "At every step, the Iranians appear intent on retaining the capacity to achieve a nuclear weapon." Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi focused on the dispute revolving around the lifting of sanctions relief; instantly required as far as Iran is concerned, in measured increments, insisted European negotiators, matching Iran's compliance with certain strictures.

Iran's negotiators can be so beguilingly charming, eliciting gracious smiles all around. This exercise in placating the Republican Guard and Ayatollah Khamenei demanding sanctions relief first, then just perhaps Iran may see its way through to acceding to polite requests to abstain from uranium enrichment vastly beyond any domestic need had its Cheshire cat admonition in Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif's admonition that "I've always said that an agreement and pressure do not go together, they are mutually exclusive.

"So our friends need to decide whether they want to be with Iran based on respect or whether they want to continue based on pressure." It all depends, it would seem, on which side was more invested in and anxious to conclude an agreement. And it wasn't necessarily Iran. The Obama administration ordered one deadline extension after another until it could eke out the parameters that Iran might concede to.

And, magnanimously Iran did. Free and unfettered inspections by the International Atomic Energy Commission, why of course! A reduction in the spinning of those advanced centrifuges, certainly! Close any of those nuclear installations, what for? Economic relief from lifting sanctions, up and away!

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