Washington, We Have a Problem....

"Congress must be convinced that its terms foreclose any pathway to a bomb, and only then will Congress be able to consider permanent sanctions relief."
House of Representatives letter to President Barack Obama

"Any attempts to sidestep Congress will be resisted on both sides of the aisle."
Rep. Eliot Engel, Democrat, House Foreign Affairs Committee

"Of course yes, death to America, because America is the original source of this pressure. They insist on putting pressure on our dear people’s economy."

"What is their goal? Their goal is to put the people against the system. The politics of America is to create insecurity."

“Negotiations with America are solely on the nuclear issue and nothing else. Everyone has to know that."

Iran's Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Isfahan uranium conversion plant

"France wants an agreement, but a robust agreement. That is to say, an accord that really guarantees that Iran can obviously have access to the civil nuclear (program)."

"But to the atomic bomb? No."

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius

"We don’t want just any deal. If we had, we could have announced something a long time ago. [Decisions] don’t get any easier as time goes by."

"It’s time to make hard decisions. We want the right deal that would make the world, including the United States and our closest allies and partners, safer and more secure. And that is our test."

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

Unfortunately, it appears that with the United States, as primary negotiator for the permanent members of the Security Council; the U.S., Britain, France, China and Russia, plus Germany, the reliance of trust in the 'test' leaves much to be desired. While France takes a tough line on lifting sanctions in reflection of the trustworthy of Iran's intentions, let alone its tradition of evasion and unhelpful lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Commission, the White House appears all to anxious to sign an agreement.

Its anxiety over that agreement which would spell out a short-time 'success' that could be attributed to a legacy mission for President Obama has relented substantially from its original demands. The March 31 deadline looms ever nearer to achieve that critical framework pact to lead to a full agreement by June and the closer it gets to Mr. Kerry's 'test', the more concerned the larger Middle East, Israel and the U.S. Congress itself becomes.

Tehran, under the auspices of the Iranian Republican Guards who have charge of its nuclear technology programs, operates some ten thousand centrifuges. Washington began the negotiations with Iran with a ceiling of 500 to 1,500 allowable centrifuges to be run. A year ago, American officials  spoke of 4,000 as a compromise. Now they're looking at a cap of 6,000 centrifuges, wrested down from 6,500 spoken of recently.

 

With a view to diminishing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium, insisting on the shutting down of much less than half of its current centrifuges doesn't seem like much of an advance, now does it? The 'breakthrough' in talks appears more heavily weighted in Iran's favour than it does in favour of a concerned world community wishing to ensure that the Islamic Republic doesn't reach its breakthrough point of enrichment for the production of nuclear warheads.

 

Still, American officials whose efforts are engaged in this wold-class headache claim that it is misleading to focus on the numbers of operational centrifuges. Other restrictions on enrichment levels and the types of centrifuges Iran will be permitted to use more than balance out the numbers, Washington insists. 

 

And in response, Congress is maintaining an intense pressure to deter Iran from that production. While the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee warned he would table legislation giving lawmakers input over the deal, 360 Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives have warned their president that if an agreement is reached, Congress will decide on whether to ease sanctions.

 

The concern centres on a one-year breakout time allowing Tehran the luxury of producing a nuclear weapon. The Obama administration insists that at a bare minimum breakout time would go beyond ten years in reflection of the draft agreement. Punitive U.S. economic sanctions are to be phased out gradually as Iran confirms its compliance with the final agreement. 

 

No official body appears to be prepared to hold its breath awaiting compliance validation.

IR-40 heavy water reactor site at Arak