Politic?

This is a blog dedicated to a personal interpretation of political news of the day. I attempt to be as knowledgeable as possible before commenting and committing my thoughts to a day's communication.

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Constructive Process ... ?

"We are at a very crucial moment in these negotiations. Our conversations this week have been very tough but constructive. We ... had very intensive sessions focused on the very hard work of drafting text."
"What is still unclear is whether Iran is really ready and willing to take all of the steps necessary to assure the world that its nuclear program is and will remain exclusively peaceful."
"[The sides break away holding a] heavily bracketed [working document as a basis of the next round]."
Wendy Sherman,  U.S. envoy at Iran/nuclear talks

The Iranian and European Union flags stands in front of a poster of the Iran talks at the International Center in Vienna, where closed-door nuclear talks have been taking place this week. Associated Press
"[The drafting of a framework text demonstrated] progress registered. [The last few days showed] all parties wish to see an agreement."
Wang Qun, China's Iran/nuclear talks envoy

"[A deal could emerge only if the six-power group, the U.S. in particular, backed away from] excessive demands."
"I advised them to think more seriously and to be realistic and to look for a solution."
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif

Is that a classic 'tail-waving-the-dog' demonstration of power impotence?

Over to you, P5+1. It is not, it appears, whether the Islamic Republic of Iran is prepared to make hard choices, but whether Russia, China, France, Britain, the United States and Germany see themselves clear to becoming more ... agreeable to the reality of what Iran insists upon proposing; the status quo with a few little diddling alterations of a temporary nature. Like it or not, take it or leave it.

Take it, and everyone's smiling, leave it and scowls of frustration become the order of the day. Or even, in some quarters, shrugs.
  • Iran wishes to maintain its 20,000 enriching centrifuges now operating or on standby. And has plans ultimately to expand that number to 150,00. Alternately, to replace them with more advanced centrifuges capable of producing a similar output.
  • While the Americans and other world powers feel Iran should repurpose its underground enrichment plant at Fordo (highly resistant to airstrikes, dug into a mountain), Iran wishes to use it to research and develop its enrichment program.
  • An almost-completed reactor at Arak can produce substantial amounts of waste plutonium, a potential assist in producing nuclear arms. Iran resists insistence it re-engineer the plant, is prepared to reduce the amount of plutonium produced, only. The U.S. anticipates reduction may be reversible, prefers a model resistant to reverse-engineering.
  • The West is clear that any deal reached must be inclusive of the results of a UN atomic agency probe which will either substantiate or dismiss allegations.
  • The U.S. wants enrichment and other Iranian nuclear programs restricted for 30 years; 20 of tight control, ten of gradual relaxation. Other Western powers would accept 20 years; 15/5. Iran feels 15 years with gradually easing controls over a few years is preferable. 
And, of course, Iran insists it has no interest in producing a nuclear weapon, despite that enriched uranium can range from low-enriched reactor fuel to the highly enriched core of a nuclear weapon. All signals appear to point in the latter direction, gainsaying Iran's protestations of innocence of intent. That's the Western-edged churlish interpretation of a peace-loving Iran's intentions.

The most recent talk session served to emphasize how distant the two sides are from each others' positions. Despite that it was meant to pave the way to a final nuclear deal. Dimming expectations that the July 20 target date for agreement on the issue could be met. Although discussions took place between U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, major differences remained unresolved.

The very same problems that had complicated and stalled the meeting that took place last month confronted negotiators from Iran, the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. The major disputes remain immutable as ongoing major disputes.
"I think we are still at a stage where P5+1's maximum -- in terms of both what it considers a tolerable residual Iranian nuclear capability and the sanctions relief it is willing to provide -- is falling short of Iran's minimum. Time ... is of the essence, lest political developments derail the process, spoilers disrupt it and politicians who are deeply invested in it lose momentum."
Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst, International Crisis Group
Sure 'nuff!

Labels: , , ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home

() Follow @rheytah Tweet