Enabling Iran

Seems clear enough that the mysterious byways of the Eastern mind are beyond the capabilities of Western intelligence to mount a defence capable of ensuring that skillful manipulation into assuming that what appears on the surface is reality and an agreement can be reached to the satisfaction of both is possible. It is possible, when that Eastern mind plays the mind of the West in a manner equal to an open and frank laying of all cards on the table.

But when the situation is that of playing the gullible hopeful's wish to achieve a solution to a vexing problem, anxious to accept a solution that appears suitable on the surface, but in reality masks a subterfuge useful only to one partner, you've got a fairly accurate description of something called a strategic agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the great minds of the G5+1; China, Russia, Britain, France, U.S.A and Germany.

China and Russia seem complacent enough; the intricacies of dealing with the Eastern mind and the conceivable scenarios that result are not entirely unknown to them, nor do they much care about what Iran does with its 'civil' nuclear program. Britain, France, America and Germany, however, were anxiously willing dupes to the machinations of a newly-biddable Iran diplomatic overture. Well planned and executed thanks to the facade of a new administration.

According to the latest report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has succeeded in accumulating 7,154-kg of under-5% low-enriched uranium and 96-kg of near-20% medium-enriched uranium. That's quite a store, a good cache of enriched uranium for a nation that was, to begin with, denied the privilege of enriching uranium to begin with, so much so, because of its obvious long-range plans for that enriched uranium, that years-worth of sanctions were pressed upon the country to influence it to cease.

That accumulation of enriched uranium in the aggregate represents enough to build six or seven bombs once the uranium is further enriched to weapons grade; about 90%. And there's the rub. Iran needed to acquire an inventory, and it successfully did so. Having done that, it's a relative hop-and-a-skip of a few months' worth of effort and design to achieve the end result. There are over 18,000 centrifuges installed at the Natanz and Fordow facilities, some of them extremely advanced and efficient, idle for the moment.

Iran has achieved breakout status for producing its first bomb. Four to six weeks may be required to produce a sufficient quantity of weapons grade uranium for that first bomb. An October 24 report produced by the Institute for Science and International Security produced that bit of intelligence. And then additional time to design and construct a serviceable explosive device.

Iran has come as close as possible, given the push-back from the international community, to its finish line. The problem was, how to avert a possible military strike from the U.S. or Israel to halt nuclear weaponization?

A problem that Iran itself neatly solved by meekly agreeing to conditions laid out by the negotiating teams, resulting in the Joint Plan of Action signed in November of 2013 creating a 'temporary' freeze of Iran's nuclear program. A temporary freeze effectively signals that Iran has been given a green light to re-commence its plans as long as it satisfies the not-very onerous demands of an international resistance grown weary of challenging Iran.

Slightly reducing enriched uranium stockpiles, accepting modestly expanded inspections in verification of "voluntary measures". All enabling Tehran. No longer any threat of an imminent breakout equals no more threat of aerial strikes to take out the nuclear installations compelling Iran to defend itself and wreaking havoc on itself in the process. All neatly set aside for a future date when it feels it is completely prepared to initiate its longer-range plan.

And the bonus in all of this is a not-inconsiderable relaxation of sanctions, a release of its frozen assets amounting to billions, giving Iran breathing room and removing some of the anger of Iranians raging against the effects the sanctions have had on their comfort level and economic well-being.

And won't we all be dreadfully surprised by the outcome of that longer-range plan....