Negotiating the Cusp of Success

"We put these sanctions in place in order to be able to put us in the strongest position possible to be able to negotiate. We now are negotiating."
"And the risk is that if Congress were to unilaterally move to raise sanctions, it could break faith in those negotiations, and actually stop them and break them apart."
American Secretary of State John Kerry

"The Iranian regime hasn't paused its nuclear program."
"Why should we pause our sanctions efforts as the administration is pressuring Congress to do?"
Ed Royce, Republican House foreign affairs committee chairman

Like John Lennon singing "Give Peace A Chance", the Obama administration is warbling "give negotiations a chance". But what propels them to this decision on their part to overlook the very obvious fact that the negotiations are strictly one-sided, the U.S. administration fully prepared to surrender their sanctions card to the ambiguity of Iranian promises which have never resulted in anything positive surfacing in the past, is beyond both curious and mysterious.

It is like a principled parent wearied and fed up with struggling to convince an recalcitrant teen that smoking pot and running with an undisciplined crowd, neglecting schoolwork and disobeying parents doesn't represent a formula for success in the adult world, finally just shrugging in exasperation, and saying "do whatever you like", and removing their authority from the scene, hoping their offspring will relent and return to reasonable options.

Except that this isn't the future of a child at stake, in this push-and-pull of one-sided negotiation technique. What comes out of the final agreement through these ridiculous negotiations where the Iranians feel entitled to acquire the secretive goal they have dedicated all their resources toward achieving will simply strengthen their resolve. For they stated up front and unequivocally that they will surrender nothing; not their nuclear installations and promise of more, nor their uranium enriched stockpiles.

Yet the Obama administration persists in insisting that its interpretation of negotiations reveals that the Islamic Republic is prepared to sacrifice some of its intentions to mollify its interlocutors so that a deal can be signed off on, that will satisfy the less-than-demanding points of the G5+1, enraptured by the prospect of conceivably settling one of the international community's most urgent concerns, even if little of any value is achieved - despite reality. Perhaps to spite reality.

Citing the fact that the newly installed more efficiently productive centrifuges joining the thousands already producing highly enriched uranium have not yet been put into action, as an indelible sign that the regime has succumbed to demands placed upon it, as a signal success in persuasion, John Kerry exults. Ignoring the fact that engineers had worked frantically to install the not-yet spinning centrifuges before IAEA investigators showed up.

And ignoring also the dry comment by the IAEA  Director Yukiya Amano's observation after  his November 15 stop in Tehran that no changes were seen by him in the country's nuclear agenda in the three months since the presidential turnover brought the 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani to power, and that 20% enrichment of uranium continued apace.

 

IR2 centrifuges at Natanz enrichment plant

The Obama administration is anxiously presenting its case to the U.S. Senate, urging it to hold off on instituting a new, tougher package of sanctions against Iran. Lest their precipitous action, in the opinion of the administration, shatter the functionality of the international coalition comprised of France, Russia and China with agendas differing, hinted Mr. Kerry delicately, from that of the United States and Britain and Germany. It was, after all, France that threw a spanner in the works last week.

Most members of Congress are concerned with the administration's tactics; too eager and willing to overlook the obvious, that what Obama and Kerry are promoting is a one-way trade to eventual acknowledgement of the Islamic Republic of Iran triumphant in its stockpiling of nuclear warheads. There are no guarantees that relaxing sanctions and permitting Iran to take possession of tens of billions of its overseas investments will result in backing off their nuclear program.

In essence, it cannot, since Iran has stated without so much as a hiccough that it has the inalienable 'right' to nuclear-whatever. The Obama administration is fixed in its fantasy belief of success at hand, delusional that trust and goodwill will be reciprocated by a theocratic tyranny that believes implicitly that it can achiever whatever its goals are, and that it is entitled on the way to that achievement, to lead its detractors by the nose.

This is a well-honed skill, and one successfully used by Iran in the past; why should it stop now? After all, what's honourable to the West isn't particularly of much interest to Iran which has its own standards of principle and what represents justice and entitlements.... It's hard to figure out at this juncture which administration is more worthy of disdain, the Iranian or the American.