Iran, Re-Treaded

"The person tagged to replace [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad will simply be another of [Supreme Leader] Ayatollah Khamenei's puppets in the tragic and dangerous pantomime that is life for all Iranians."
Foreign Minister John Baird, Canada

"We need freedom of speech and the right to criticize. If we cannot criticize decisions, then our problems will not be solved."
Hassan Rowhani, Iranian President-elect

The world seems to be falling all over itself in congratulating a suddenly-less-threatening Islamic Republic of Iran, for the people have spoken. A goodly proportion of the voting Iranian public have spoken, in any event. Spoken at the ballot box. They have voted into office what passes for a 'moderate' in Iran. What a proud achievement. That from among a handful of candidates that the Ayatollah and his Supreme Council permitted to put themselves forward as candidates because they were inoffensively supportive of the regime, one was chosen.

The winner himself characterized his win whereby he had secured over half of the votes from a purportedly 70% turnout of eligible voters, as "a victory of wisdom, a victory of moderation, a victory of growth and awareness and a victory of commitment over extremism and ill-temper". So how is it that Canada's top diplomatic presence within the international community is alone (well of course there is always Israel, recommending caution) in tempering enthusiasm?

Not so Britain, France, Germany and the United States where the U.S. Secretary of State used the occasion to praise the perspicacity of the the electorate in its wisdom for selecting a presidential candidate who would lead to a situation that would "restore and expand freedoms for all Iranians". One assumes he knows of what he speaks. Or, more likely, not at all.

Do we just shunt aside the reality that is Iran? That reality being that it is Grand Ayatollah Khamenei whose word is final?

And among his final dictates is the implacable reality of a nuclear program that Iran will not be denied. And of course additional realities as well. Such as the hordes of Iranian citizens who have been arrested, detained, tortured, imprisoned and even executed for offending the sensibilities of the ruling Ayatollahs. Freedom of expression is a Western concept, a contemptible one according to the Ayatollahs.

The commission of terrorist criminality did not deter the Supreme Council from giving a clean bill of health to the presidential candidates they vetted. As long as they were sufficiently expressive of the Republic's values. Will the winning presidential candidate turn his attention to the execution of minors, the incarceration of journalists and bloggers, the persecution of women, and religious minorities? Just...wondering.

And the Government of Canada is also wondering, its spokesman saying outright that the vote was a sham, and Rowhani was a very useful "puppet".  Because, said Canada's Foreign Minister John Baird, the election was "effectively meaningless", since only "regime-friendly candidates" were permitted to stand for office, none of whom "represents a real alternative for Iranian voters".

Hassan Rowhani is no novice plucked out of nowhere to become the successor to the abrasive Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who failed in the last several years to endear himself to the Supreme Leader. Mr. Rowhani made common cause with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in his Paris exile, served as security advisor to former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and was later head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council before becoming the country's nuclear negotiator.

How moderate, how independent, can this man be? He is, in fact, an influential regime insider, one whom the Ayatollahs have reason to trust. According to Sayeh Hassan, a Toronto lawyer and pro-democracy activist who left Iran for Canada a quarter century ago, Mr. Rowhani "may be a moderate, but that is moderate within the Islamic Regime. He was one of the only 8 people out of 600-plus who were allowed to run for the presidency and approved by Khamenei and the Guardian Council."

"They were essentially hand-picked", she stated. "The regime is weak and facing so much pressure, and has lost most of its legitimacy at home and abroad. It needed a high voter turnout, and it needs someone moderate to engage the West and stop some of the pressure on Iran. So enters Rowhani... This is not a victory.  We may see some small but non-fundamental changes, maybe a lesser strict rules on the dress code and maybe women will be able to have nail polish on their hands without being arrested, but there will be no change in the real issues and real oppression", she said.

Her view was supported by Shabnam Assadollahi, an English-as-a-second-language instructor in Ottawa and another pro-democracy activist. She too throws the cold water of reason on the prospect of Iran having suddenly become "moderate". Tehran is buying time, closing in on its nuclear weapons goal. She spoke of Mr. Rowhani as a "sly" regime loyalist who has, in the past, been known to boast of having duped Western powers during nuclear negotiations.