Canadian Politics

‘Shine has come off the Trudeau Express’: Liberal support dropping as Tories make up ground

Allison Cross | 13/06/28 | Last Updated: 13/06/28 2:32 PM ET

Adrian Wyld / CP files   Support slipped for the Federal Liberals and surged for the Conservatives as new poll data shows Justin Trudeau's party would win a minority government if an election were held today.

Support slipped for the Federal Liberals and surged for the Conservatives this month as new poll data shows Justin Trudeau’s party would win a minority government if an election were held today.
Thirty-eight per cent of Canadians polled said they would vote Liberal, a dip from last month’s all-time high of 44%, according to a Forum Poll for the National Post.

Support for the Conservative party grew three percentage points compared to last month, with 30% of those polled saying they’d cast a vote for Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Tories.

“It appears a bit of the shine has come off the Trudeau Express since last month,” said Lorne Bozinoff, Forum Research president.
“Whether it’s a temporary blip or the new normal remains to be seen.”

Support for the NDP remained stable at 20% while 6% said they would vote for the Bloc Quebecois and 4% for the Green Party.

The new slump in electoral support for the Liberals means they’d win a minority government of 150 seats, compared to last month’s majority government of 192 seats.

AFP / Getty Images and The Canadian Press     The Tories would win 133 seats, a boost from 77 last month. The NDP would win 39 seats, up from 37 last month. Green Party leader would retain her single seat and the Bloc would take five seats, up from just one last month.

With a major cabinet shuffle all but certain sometime this summer, speculation is again swirling around the futures of Defence Minister Peter MacKay and Public Safety Minister Vic Toews.

MacKay saw two longtime aides announce their departures this month, an unprecedented overhaul of the defence minister’s office, which has been one of the most stable of the Conservative-government era.
MacKay’s longtime director of communications Jay Paxton announced this week that he is leaving the defence minister’s office at the end of the month.
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The Tories would win 113 seats, a boost from 77 last month. The NDP would win 39 seats, up from 37 last month. Green Party leader would retain her single seat and the Bloc would take five seats, up from a single seat.

Thirty-three per cent of Canadians polled approve of the job Harper is doing, up from 29% last month. Fifty-eight per cent of Canadians also think it’s time for Harper to retire.

The majority of Canadians — 61% — believe it’s time for a change in Ottawa, while 31% do not and 8% are unsure.

If Harper did retire, the poll says 9% of Canadians would choose Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall to replace him as the leader of the Conservatives over the others on a list of possible candidates.
That list included: Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird (6%) Tony Clement (6%), Immigration Minister Jason Kenney (4%), Jim Prentice (4%), Parliamentary Secretary Michelle Rempel (3%) and Heritage Minister James Moore (2%).

Thirty-eight percent of those polled said they didn’t have an opinion on Harper’s replacement, while 29% said no one on the list would make a good leader.

The poll results are based on the results of an interactive voice response phone survey on June 18 of 1,525 Canadian adults selected at random. The results are considered accurate +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.

A major Conservative cabinet shuffle is all but certain sometime this summer. Harper has asked his ministers whether they plan to run in the next election as he prepares for the shuffle in advance of a run to 2015.

Peter MacKay is already widely expected to be moved from his post as minister of defence, a portfolio he has filled since 2007 and reportedly enjoys, and some believe it would make sense for the minister to decide now is the time to step aside.

Rumours are also circulating of the planned resignation of Public Safety Minister Vic Toews.
It’s expected that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will be shuffled from finance against his wishes due to questions about his health and likelihood of running in the next election.

Baird, Kenney and Moore are also expected to be moved as Harper attempts to put a new face on his government for 2015.

National Post, with files from Postmedia News