The Pundits Have It

Normally, featured commentators exercise a little restraint rather than prognosticating definitely without a shred of doubt expressed as a possibility that matters may not turn out as anticipated.  But polls are polls and people tend to place a whole lot of trust in them.  Despite which, one might imagine that seasoned journalists, those who are confident in their experience and their ability to forecast events through careful scrutiny of associated details, might hesitate before they leap.

Andrew Coyne leaped with gusto into his bold assertion, seemingly more than adequately backed up by polls and interpretations indulged upon by his journalistic peers, that Alberta was about to toss its reliance on their long-reigning Progressive Conservatives to welcome with open arms a new off-shoot breakaway party veering to the right of the Tories. 

"Unless something astonishing happens, the Wildrose Party will form the next government of Alberta.  All that remained at time of writing, assuming the polls were not completely off, was to discover whether it would be a minority or majority.

"Wait a minute: unless something astonishing happens?  That Wildrose should even be in contention, let alone poised to govern, is surely one of the most astonishing somethings in living memory.  Never mind that it has never governed or has only ever elected one member of the legislature.  The party did not even exist until about four years ago."

Ah, well, something astonishing did happen, and it wasn't at all as Andrew Coyne expressed confidently it to be.  The polls were, quite simply, block-headed-wrong.  And the relaxed, natural, and bold Danielle Smith's leadership abilities, let alone her platform perplexed and concerned enough Albertans to have them plunk their ballots for the tried-and-true, albeit tired and corrupt PC party.

Alison Redford is now not merely a caretaker premier, she is the duly elected premier of the Province of Alberta.  Alberta voters have returned a majority Progressive Conservative Party to power, in the hopes that the scandals and the anger they expressed through their public vacillation about the recent events sullying the reputation and trust of the PCs, will act as a warning.

It's back to the drawing board for Danielle Smith, where she will have a few years to hone her message and hope that future Wildrose Party candidates speak with a trifle more caution rather than alienate their potential votes.  Her casual dismissal of opinions that offended the public may have made her seem to some like the antithesis of an autocrat, but to others weak-willed and uncaring.

The mismanagement and petty scandals that have plagued the Tories will serve as a sobering reminder to Alison Redford that she has plenty of work to do to reinstate her party's reputation.  Their sense of entitlement may be boosted by yet another majority win, but if she has the sense that is attributed to her and that shines through from time to time, she will work with her caucus to reestablish their values.

As for Mr. Coyne and his so-positive spin on the election outcome, there too is a lesson in humility.