Struggling Appearances

Barack Obama hardly knew where to turn. Desert a political friend to whom much was owed by the United States, as a pivotal actor in the Middle East, aiding to control the rise of Islamist extremism? Or give absence to the fervent belief in the democratic ideal that every president before him has cleaved to?

Particularly in view of his own speech in Cairo in his first year in office, travelling internationally to give inspirational speeches to the Muslim world, and to university students lauding democracy and urging those students to visualize such a future for themselves in a new kind of Egypt.

Did the eloquence and passionate speaking style of this new American president motivate and inspire the young Egyptian men to take their resolute action? Did they foresee the potential consequences? They, after all, know Egypt far more intimately than an American president.

Are we to believe that since they were university students their political outlook was secular in nature? That none subscribed to the ideology say, of the Muslim Brotherhood?

Time will most certainly tell. Meanwhile, President Obama's Secretary of State has lauded the Muslim Brotherhood for agreeing to participate in talks with the purpose of arriving at a general agreement for the near future of Egypt. And James Clapper, chief of the U.S. National Intelligence Agency spoke in glowing terms of the Muslim Brotherhood, as moderate and "largely secular" in nature, posing no threat to Egypt, let alone the Middle East for they have "eschewed violence".

With loyal and knowledgeable advisers like these, President Obama found the direction he was looking for. Yes, he could, after all, throw Hosni Mubarak into the trash bin of history; his initial hesitation to do so did not reflect the firm assurance of a President of the United States who, like the Almighty, is omniscient and omnipotent.

So, while praising Hosni Mubarak for his past service to his country, allied with U.S. interests, he sternly urged his timely departure.

The comfort and assurances he failed to extend to Iranians protesting their fanatically tyrannical theistic state, he sincerely offered to the youthful protesters in Cairo. Leaving heads of state in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait a trifle shaken at the unanticipated manner in which the U.S. president, aided and abetted by the European Union, was able to shed his close alliance with a former ally in favour of being "on the right side of history".

A nice contrast was the calm statement of the Prime Minister of Canada, that he and his country respected Mr. Mubarak's 'decision' to step down "in order to promote peace and stability". That Canada "encourages all parties to move forward with a peaceful, meaningful, credible and orderly democratic reform process toward new leadership". Not forgetting the need for regional "stability", identifying the peace treaty with Israel.

Of course all of this is wishful thinking on the part of governments outside the Middle East. Mournful regret at seeing a benevolent dictator of a police state summarily removed from office, and at the same time, knowing the unstable and tyranny-prone nature of the Middle East, never devoted to the concept of human rights, could just as easily turn into yet another Islamist Republic.

It could do that, despite the oversight of the politically restrained, secular-outlook national armed forces; a half-million-strong, now in control of a substantial portion of the Arab world. Because, simply put, a large proportion of Egyptians, about 80%, would like to see the return of Shariah law. Unless the armed forces intend to rule in perpetuity, rather than to hand the administration to a civilian authority in due time.

Which should give all the onlookers something to think about.

And because youthful Egyptians so utterly enthralled with their success have not thought deeply about the future of their country they no doubt feel jobs will instantly appear, along with more reasonable prices for imported wheat and fuel.

If they have given any thought at all to the devastating blow their 'revolution' has cost the country, the ameliorative steps that will need to be taken to bring it back to economic security, it might indicate some maturity of thought beyond the buoyant ebullience of belligerent youth acting out their grievances.

In the minds of democratic countries' leaders looking in on the disruptive influence that their example has caused, should be some lingering doubts; that a change to democracy does not result overnight. Rather a long, arduous process of re-orientation for a society that has long been mired in its social, religious and political structure geared to their history and culture, will have to be undertaken, and this will take years to achieve.

In the interim, with no miraculous appearance of more job openings for the restless young and the poor, with no levelling off of the rise of the cost of fundamental foods and energy sources, it is not too likely that the complaints that originally occasioned protests will be addressed. It will be instructive to see how long the state of jubilation will last.