How To Solve a Problem Like Iran?

Iran's green revolution is doing its best to counter the June presidential vote which they claim to have been corrupt and illegal. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basiji militia have been unleashed to damp down the enthusiasm of the counter-revolutionaries. Human rights groups are warning that Iran has clamped down on journalists and women's groups, and that as many as 1,000 people have been plucked off the streets and out of their homes and imprisoned.

The world outside the Middle East in particular subscribes to the belief that Iranians are thoroughly fed up with their current government and with the theocratic reign of the Supreme Leader; that a popular uprising is conceivable in the near future which will uproot the Islamic Republic of Iran's current leadership. Reality may be other than that, with recently-released research revealing that an analysis of pre-and post-election surveys indicates otherwise.

The World Public Opinion organization claims that though electoral fraud might have taken place, it was not sufficient to alter the result of the presidential election. Despite the official results wildly exaggerating Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's lead, they claim he almost certainly was advantaged by over 50% of the popular vote. Moreover, the vast majority of Iranians, they claim, consider his election as president entirely legitimate.

Anything else appears to be wishful thinking. So a popular revolt of enough outraged, enraged Iranians, disgusted with the Supreme Leader's and the president's fanatically tough rule is not likely to occur, after all, despite the pundits who declare otherwise. And there's another thing; even the opposition who would dearly love to replace the current president, appear to take pride in the nuclear program that the country is committed to.

In this matter it is not simply the 'moderates' and the 'extremists'. Iranians may be relatively moderate in their approach to theological fanaticism, but they appear to be generally agreed with the country's approach to investing in nuclear power. That is the power of nuclear investment, not the investment in nuclear power. Ownership of nuclear munitions would be seen as a plus by most Iranians, in a nation that views itself as embattled by a hostile world.

The United States now considers that a far more urgent response is required to deal with Iran's determination to expand its nuclear program. Even Russia, with its deep trade ties with the country valued at some $3-B annually is expressing concern. Despite that it is Russia which has been assisting Iran in building its nuclear installations, both with its own manpower expertise and the provision of technical apparatus.

China, with its matching deep investment to reflect its own need for future energy sources, remains unwilling to sign on to increased and more stringent UN Security Council-approved sanctions. Despite Iran's obvious move toward production of weapons-grade nuclear fuel. And President Barack Obama now finds himself in a position similar to that which his predecessor espoused; by-passing the United Nations.

Exerting, with another 'coalition of the willing' alternate sanctions more likely to harm the country economically. Which would require countries in the European Union, to forbid their own government agencies and corporations and banks within from doing their usual surreptitious business with Iran. And the United States would be forced to do the same, internally to the business detriment of American companies for whom free enterprise will be stifled.

Russia now, in fact, has issued the strongest condemnation of any sanctions-supporting countries: "Iran says that it is not trying to have nuclear weapons, and that it wants only peaceful nuclear (capabilities), but the action it is taking ... raise doubts in other countries, and those doubts are quite valid", said the secretary of Russia's Security Council. Has he raised this issue directly with his client in Tehran?

Canada's Prime Minister Harper promises that "Canada will continue to work with our allies to find strong and viable solutions, including sanctions, to hold Iran to account. In addition to our unease with the Iranian nuclear program, Canada will continue to voice our very serious concerns with the Iranian regime's stifling of democracy, its deplorable human rights practices, and its negative implications for both regional and global stability".

And Iran keeps busy arresting people, condemning some to death by hanging, repressing dissent, warning of crack-downs, giving more authority to the Revolutionary Guards to safeguard their loyalty to the Iranian Republic. And as more power is handed over to the Revolutionary Guards the country moves closer to becoming a military government with its theocratic imperialism functioning as a support to the military, in a role reversal.

"As the IRGC consolidates control over broad swaths of the Iranian economy, displacing ordinary Iranian businessmen in favour of a select group of insiders, it is hiding behind companies like Khatam al-Anbiya (its construction arm) and its affiliate to maintain vital ties to the outside world", said the U.S. Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, as it prepares to launch its own sanctions against four subsidiaries and the commander of the Guard's construction arm.

Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practise to deceive...