Negotiating Blindly
Negotiations with Iran have gone from dire threats to pleading, to diplomatic niceties, all with the goal of bringing the Islamic Republic of Iran to heel with respect to its nuclear aspirations. There is some semblance of truth, no doubt, in Iran asserting that it needs fuel for its original U.S.-supplied reactor (back in the days of the Shah and stable relations between Iran and the U.S.) for medical reasons; that Iran plans to produce its own medical isotopes. If so, it will be one of the rare countries of the world that will do that.
The supply of medical isotopes world-wide has been problematical within the last year, with isotope-producing countries coping with tired nuclear reactors that urgently require upgrades and better yet, replacement. It would be more than a little ironic if a country teetering on economic insolvency (which hasn't stopped its funding of non-state terror militias), high unemployment and political unrest, becomes one of the few isotope-producing countries of the world.
As in 'give me a break'. But this is their story of the hour.
And it appears to be just what the nations breathing down the necks of Iran's aspirations really want to hear, rather than view Iran as the fire-breathing dragon it aspires to be, with nuclear militarization. Forgotten, it appears, is the ongoing uranium enrichment, the newly-admitted reality of a hidden reactor at Qom that was giving the world heartburn a mere month earlier. Appeasement and entitlements appear to have won the day.
With the Security Council and Germany urging Iran to agree to the nuclear-fuel agreement stick-handled by France and Russia, and championed by Mohamed El Baradei of the IAEA, a solution is in sight! Seemingly forgotten too is the sticking point of Iran's ongoing refusal to allow the inspectors working for the International Atomic Energy Agency access to all of Iran's (known) reactor sites.
It's as though suddenly the opposition to Iran's acquisition of weapons-grade uranium and its top-secret work has become an embarrassment, in view of Iran's sudden about-turn willing to be engaged in negotiations. Western diplomats, long accustomed to Iran's style of negotiating, accepting conditions, then moving back from them, in a one-step-forward, two-steps-backward dance aren't being consulted, obviously.
The draft accord whereby Iran would ship most of its low-enriched nuclear fuel to Russia and then on to France for fuel rod production, would appear to placate the demands of the adversarial position to Iran's nuclear program. It has certainly caused Mohamed El Baradei to exult over the 'break-through'. As one deadline for compliance after another has passed, and then Friday loomed as the final day for a response.
And then, Thursday evening, Iran's nuclear-negotiation representative claimed Iran had no intention of signing the agreement. Or perhaps, on second thought, they may be prepared in a fortnight or two to reach a deliberation, and relay that to the waiting world community. And then, on the other hand, perhaps not. The world powers sit and wait. Haplessly, helplessly pondering alternatives.
Are there any? This situation and its potential for peacefully being resolved is being regarded as a test of U.S. President Barack Obama's stated policy of trusting to diplomatic negotiations; in his extension of a hand of friendship to Iran. Which, of course, initially rebuffed that generously open hand with a vituperative reminder that the U.S. remains, as far as Iran is concerned, the "Great Satan".
So then, if Iran agrees to have its uranium enriched by Russia, will it be sitting there covertly twiddling its centrifuges, and working its way up to the 50,000 it would require to operate a centrifuge cascade producing enriched nuclear fuel for the manufacture of nuclear weapons? Who will know? Tehran is in the test phase of a more advanced centrifuge technology, capable of producing larger volumes of enriched uranium. Will they be successful, and will they crow to the world about their success?
Which is to say, before or after unleashing the reality of their possession of a number of rocket-propelled nuclear warheads? It's anybody's guess, isn't it?
The supply of medical isotopes world-wide has been problematical within the last year, with isotope-producing countries coping with tired nuclear reactors that urgently require upgrades and better yet, replacement. It would be more than a little ironic if a country teetering on economic insolvency (which hasn't stopped its funding of non-state terror militias), high unemployment and political unrest, becomes one of the few isotope-producing countries of the world.
As in 'give me a break'. But this is their story of the hour.
And it appears to be just what the nations breathing down the necks of Iran's aspirations really want to hear, rather than view Iran as the fire-breathing dragon it aspires to be, with nuclear militarization. Forgotten, it appears, is the ongoing uranium enrichment, the newly-admitted reality of a hidden reactor at Qom that was giving the world heartburn a mere month earlier. Appeasement and entitlements appear to have won the day.
With the Security Council and Germany urging Iran to agree to the nuclear-fuel agreement stick-handled by France and Russia, and championed by Mohamed El Baradei of the IAEA, a solution is in sight! Seemingly forgotten too is the sticking point of Iran's ongoing refusal to allow the inspectors working for the International Atomic Energy Agency access to all of Iran's (known) reactor sites.
It's as though suddenly the opposition to Iran's acquisition of weapons-grade uranium and its top-secret work has become an embarrassment, in view of Iran's sudden about-turn willing to be engaged in negotiations. Western diplomats, long accustomed to Iran's style of negotiating, accepting conditions, then moving back from them, in a one-step-forward, two-steps-backward dance aren't being consulted, obviously.
The draft accord whereby Iran would ship most of its low-enriched nuclear fuel to Russia and then on to France for fuel rod production, would appear to placate the demands of the adversarial position to Iran's nuclear program. It has certainly caused Mohamed El Baradei to exult over the 'break-through'. As one deadline for compliance after another has passed, and then Friday loomed as the final day for a response.
And then, Thursday evening, Iran's nuclear-negotiation representative claimed Iran had no intention of signing the agreement. Or perhaps, on second thought, they may be prepared in a fortnight or two to reach a deliberation, and relay that to the waiting world community. And then, on the other hand, perhaps not. The world powers sit and wait. Haplessly, helplessly pondering alternatives.
Are there any? This situation and its potential for peacefully being resolved is being regarded as a test of U.S. President Barack Obama's stated policy of trusting to diplomatic negotiations; in his extension of a hand of friendship to Iran. Which, of course, initially rebuffed that generously open hand with a vituperative reminder that the U.S. remains, as far as Iran is concerned, the "Great Satan".
So then, if Iran agrees to have its uranium enriched by Russia, will it be sitting there covertly twiddling its centrifuges, and working its way up to the 50,000 it would require to operate a centrifuge cascade producing enriched nuclear fuel for the manufacture of nuclear weapons? Who will know? Tehran is in the test phase of a more advanced centrifuge technology, capable of producing larger volumes of enriched uranium. Will they be successful, and will they crow to the world about their success?
Which is to say, before or after unleashing the reality of their possession of a number of rocket-propelled nuclear warheads? It's anybody's guess, isn't it?
Labels: Middle East, Technology, Terrorism
posted by Pieface | 6:17 PM
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