If Not Syria, Then Who?

Here we go again. Never enough deaths, never sufficient in the way of political assassinations. It is the tribal way, it is the manner in which, through millennia, tribes competing for territory and resources, recognition of their place in the hierarchy of religious sectarianism have solved their problems. It is unending, enduring.

Lebanon can have no peace. Both from within and without. Historically its neighbours have looked at its beautiful natural resources with envy, hoping to incorporate that wealth into their own grasp, much as was done historically with Palestinian lands, considered potential booty by avaricious Arab rulers. When an uneasy peace settles in and the population feels relatively secure then those who have other plans for the country pluck the peace to pieces and leave chaos in their wake.

The irony here is that the country's external enemies and their proxies were in any event on the verge of leading the country to civil war. Hezbollah, through Hassan Nasrallah claiming it had the support to undertake a larger portion of government in leading the country, spoke determinedly of its intentions to go to the street, to foment demonstrations to bring the government down. The intent of which is to initiate a civil war, one they feel confident of winning, and securing the government for themselves.

Themselves? As puppets of Syria, since Syrian domination of Lebanon fit so comfortably and Syria is beside itself with grief at its ouster by the Cedar Revolution, that poor uneasy alliance of temporary reprieve. Now Hezbollah claims rather ingenuously that the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, just the latest in a string of political opposition murders: "There is no doubt at all that those who carried out this crime want to push Lebanon into chaos ... and civil war". Right, they should, after all, know.

Lebanese cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, whose father Amin Gemayel is a former president of Lebanon - and whose uncle Bashir Gemayel was the same age, 34, when he was assassinated in 1982, just days before he was to be sworn in as president of the country - is the fifth member of his family to die a violent political death. A member of the Christian Phalange party, Pierre Gemayel was a stringent critic of Hezbollah, of Syrian influence in Lebanon. Phalangist leaders have, in the past, worked toward expelling PLO supporters from Lebanon, in the process intimating support for peaceful relations with Israel.

However, poor misunderstood Syria heatedly denies it had any hand in this murder. "This charade of blaming Syria for every malicious event in Lebanon has been exposed a long time ago and is simply losing all credibility" went an official statement from Syria. "Syria is outraged by this terrible act." Oddly enough, the world waits to be convinced.

The UN Security Council, at the urgent request of Lebanon's current governing body and its president, Mr. Siniora, has endorsed an international tribunal for the purpose of bringing suspects in former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri's assassination to trial and justice. Like Mr. Gemayel, the highly regarded Mr. Hariri was a strong opponent of Syria's highjacking of Lebanon's sovereignty, the raping of its resources. UN probes thus far have uncovered evidence validating claims of Syria's involvement in Mr. Hariri's murder.

Lebanese protestors, outraged at yet another political assassination of Lebanese patriots blame Syria, its Lebanese supporter Michel Aoun, the Shia Hezbollah, itself the proxy army within Lebanon of Iran, anxious to consolidate its Shia hegemony in the country. Even Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab nations fear a nightmare expansion of Shia Muslim power. The trajectory is clear to them: from Iran to Iraq, to Lebanon, and from there an inexorable spread to the Persian Gulf.

Bashar Assad has proven to be his father's son, a worthy successor to an autocratic trouble-maker within the Arab world. Syria has much to answer for.