This is a blog dedicated to a personal interpretation of political news of the day. I attempt to be as knowledgeable as possible before commenting and committing my thoughts to a day's communication.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tehran Triumphant

"This [is a] bad agreement, which is becoming worse by the day. It is still not too late to go back and insist on demands that will genuinely deny Iran the ability to arm itself with nuclear weapons."
"Therefore, there is both a conventional threat and a non-conventional threat, which in my view will heighten the nuclear arms race in the Middle East. For all of these reasons, this is a bad agreement. I appreciate the fact that there is a broad consensus within the State of Israel against this agreement. There are also increasing voices in the West against this agreement; they understand the significance its implementation would have on global security, theirs as well. But, as has been said, this debate is still taking place. I think it is important that Israel’s voice be heard, along with that of many others.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

"If we reach a deal, both sides should be committed to it. If the other side breaches the deal, we will go back to the old path, stronger than what they can imagine."
Iran’s President Hassan Rowhani

"I am convinced that if there is no agreement, everyone loses. Iran would remain isolated. A new arms race in a region that is already riven by conflict could be the dramatic consequence."
"We have offered to suspend all economic and financial sanctions in the first phase. Experts estimate that lifting the sanctions will lead to economic growth of 5 to 7 percent."
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier,

"There are real and tough issues that remain which have to be resolved in order to get the comprehensive agreement, and we still do not know yet whether we will be able to get there."
Senior U.S. administration official

Iran and six world powers are in what may be the final phase of negotiations. (File: Reuters)

The U.S. has firmly insisted that IAEA inspectors be given free access to all nuclear sites in Iran, as well as military sites hosting a nuclear presence. Last week the Islamic Republic of Iran's Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei unequivocally and finally rejected any such aspiration as a non-starter. Demanding that sanctions in their entirety be lifted in advance of Tehran dismantling its nuclear infrastructure and before international inspectors verify that Tehran's commitments will be met.

The U.S. and its P5+1 allies in the negotiations have decided that the hardball politics Tehran is playing is not their style, agreeing to drop inspections of nuclear sites from a final deal. To do so would mean resignation and capitulation to limiting Iran's capacity to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. As German Foreign Minister Steinmeier observed, relaxing sanctions will gift Tehran with the funding to proceed in ways that will be opaque to inspection.

But he cites that probability in a positive spin as though the resulting 'economic growth' will be expended on the country's civil infrastructure and give relief to government programs that would normally give aid to a population straining under the effects of a tight economy due to the sanctions. Whereas Tehran will have much different prospects for the use of the finances freed up for their ongoing nuclear program, left intact for all inspectors who cannot gain entrance to key areas will know. Either way the arms race will proceed apace.
Iran’s nuclear plant at Fordo. (Al-arabiya)

"Ultimately this [reaching a final agreement] is going to be up to the Iranians" stated President Obama during a Washington news conference. The expectation being that giving freer reign to Iran's ambitions will meet the requirements set out by the international community; a theory that runs directly counter to all of the exchanges of the past between the international community and the Republic. Overlooked in all of this is Iran's aggressive plans for the Middle East and its belief that it represents the logical leader of the other Muslim countries located there.

Bypassed is the Iranian Republican Guard's direction and control of the country's nuclear program, its support for terrorist groups, and its dispatch of those surrogate militias to international destinations to commit atrocities. Ignored is Iran's championing of itself as a military might with its new-generation ballistic missiles meant to match up with nuclear warheads. And its provision of missiles and launchers to its proteges, Hezbollah and Hamas.  Its sectarian divisive championing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad bludgeoning Sunni Syrians to death. Much less its domestic reign of terror.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week issued a clear and decided ultimatum to the international negotiators irritatingly interfering with the Republic's sovereign right to advance its nuclear program in lock-step with its ballistic missiles refinements. That a long freeze of its sensitive nuclear program is a non-issue, as is the prospect of laying open to international inspectors Iran's military sites.

The supine agreement of the powerful Security Council members plus Germany and the European Union should come as a surprise to no one. It has long been predicted. As have been the consequences.

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