Eastern Europe in High Stress

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg are seen at a news conference at the European Union headquarters in Brussels on Thursday. (John Thys/AFP/Getty Images)

"The message today to Russia is that it is for Ukraine as a sovereign nation to decide its own path."

"We call on Russia to return to diplomacy. To de-escalate. And to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

"Any further aggression against Ukraine will have severe consequences. And would carry a high price."
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General

"We will emphasize here once again, that the inviolability of borders is one of the very important foundations of peace in Europe, and that we will do everything together to ensure that this inviolability actually remains."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

"I'm worried because the military concentration, especially on the Ukrainian border with Russia [is] very strong."

"We are prepared to avoid the kind of surprises we met during the occupation of Crimea."

Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, EU revolving presidency

"Probably we face the most dangerous situation in the last 30 years. I think we have to do everything that is in our hands to prevent the worst scenario, which we [cannot] exclude."

"This scenario is possible military intervention into the territory of Ukraine."

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda

 

"There will be no talks on European security without European allies and partners."

"[Washington will hold discussions with its allies but] we will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own future and foreign policy, free from outside interference."

Jen Psaki, White House spokesperson

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a conference in Moscow on Friday. (Sergei Guneyev/SPUTNIK/AFP/Getty Images)

Over 100,000 Russian  troops have been massed on the Russian border with Ukraine, leaving leaders of Europe to warn of the most dangerously tense episode occurring in real time, in the past 30 years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union when its satellites went their separate ways, assuming full sovereignty for themselves after years of orbiting helplessly around the powerfully-enforced magnetic star of the USSR. 

 

With the last European Council summit of the year in Belgium, EU heads of state and government gave ample warning to the Kremlin that it would face "massive consequences and severe cost" should there be a repeat of the annexation of Crimea in a violent 2014 takeover. But Vladimir Putin remains resolute; should Europe wish to achieve a relaxation of tensions, NATO must withdraw its 2008 assurance to Ukraine that it would be welcomed along with Georgia into its bloc. No agreement, no de-escalation.

 

Moscow's published list of demands for de-escalation and recall of Russian troops and war machinery has failed to impress NATO  and the EU. Russia's insistence of a legally binding guarantee that NATO surrender all military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine is part of its list of security guarantees to be negotiated with the West if any progress is to be made in de-engaging from its current level of intimidation and threat.

 

The detailed demands, Moscow stressed, are essential, without which tensions will not be diminished in Europe, and the crisis over Ukraine defused. However, the world could be assured, Moscow reiterated, that it has no intention whatever of planning an invasion of Ukraine. Demands include an effective Russian veto on future NATO membership for Ukraine. Other elements relate to the removal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe alongside the withdrawal of multi national NATO battalions from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 

None of those demands were met with ingratiating deference. Russia does not, after all, control with the
EU or NATO and its allies, led by the United States, envision for Europe; total abandonment of the Baltic states and the rest of eastern Europe to the kind remonstrances of the Kremlin to convince former satellites that their futures lie with a resumption of their former devotion to a mighty Russia's formation of a strong Europe.

According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Russia and the West must begin with a clean slate to rebuild relations gone sour. Russia being fully prepared to begin talks as soon as possible. As far as the Kremlin is concerned, its position is one of response to threats to its security from Ukraine's increasingly warm relations with NATO and its aspirations to join the alliance. 

The best possible scenario the Kremlin envisages if that NATO  return to the situation that existed before May 1997; predating the accession to NATO of any of the former communist states in east Europe; that NATO relinquish any military activities in Ukraine, eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Wait for it.

Ukraine’s foreign minister has asked Canada to help strengthen its defences amid escalating tensions with Russia, while NATO warns Russia will face “high impact” sanctions if it attacks

Threat to Peace and Stability : Islamic Republic of Iran

"The fake Zionist regime is the mother of all calamities and the root-cause of problems in the region and, therefore, the few regional countries that move toward normalizing ties with this fabricated regime are acting against the security and interests of the region and the Muslim ummah."

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian 

 

"Without swift progress, in light of Iran’s fast-forwarding of its nuclear program, the JCPOA will soon become an empty shell."

"There has been some technical progress in the last 24 hours, but this only takes us back nearer to where the talks stood in June."

E3 Diplomats

 

"We have had many hours of engagement, and all delegations have pressed Iran to be reasonable [over stalemated talks]."

"As of this moment, we still have not been able to get down to real negotiations. We are losing precious time dealing with new Iranian positions inconsistent with the JCPOA that go beyond [a] clearly visible [outline tentatively agreed during the previous round of talks in June]." 

"But time is running out. Without swift progress, in light of Iran’s fast-forwarding of its nuclear program, the JCPOA will very soon become an empty shell."

Senior European Diplomats

The delegations are expected to head back to the Austrian capital in about a week with an aim to move forward on restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [EU Delegation in Vienna/EEAS/Handout via Reuters

 

This is the foreign minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran as he congratulates Ismail Haniyeh on the occasion of the anniversary of the founding of the "resistance movement" known as Hamas. Iran and Hamas would not under other circumstances have anything approaching friendly relations; their ancient sectarian enmities; Shi'ia Islam under Iran and Sunni Islam representing Hamas's Islamism would have kept them at vitriolic loggerheads. Both, however, have a solid link to a common denominator: the state of Israel.

The United Nations whose formation and constitution were based on upholding human rights, peaceful negotiation, and equality between nations provided a platform for former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to expound on Iran's position of vitriolic opposition to the existence of the state of Israel in the Middle East. Iran shares no borders with Israel, has no business to conduct with Israel, but takes the implacable position that no land once consecrated to Islam may be occupied by any other religion.

This, despite Israel's ancestral origins in the Middle East, well documented and historically evidenced, long predating Islam. The Iranian brand of Shia Islam nurtured by Ayatollah Khomeini in his Iranian Revolution -- that brought fundamentalist Islam to Iran and ousted the Pahlevi dynasty that had been modernizing Iran, and had good relations with the Arab Sunni nations and with Israel -- has since alienated most of the Arab nations while focusing on Israel as a future target for total elimination.

During Lebanon's civil war period when its shared governance with its major populations of Sunni, Shia, Druze and Christian leaders fell into violent disarray, Iran's Republican Guard Corps al-Quds division covertly entered Lebanon -- along with Syria's military and government agents at a time when Israel had invaded to stop cross-border attacks from Palestinians living on the border, and France and the U.S. were installed on a UN peacekeeping mission -- and Hezbollah was born.

The "Party of God" was nurtured, trained and armed by the Islamist al-Quds of the Republican Guard as a functional ally of Iran, a proxy militia that Iran would control. Known for its links with and support for terrorist groups, and for the part it plays in dispatching them to international destinations to mount atrocities against Jewish institutions, Iran is fixated not only on destroying Israel, but Jewish lives anywhere they exist.

This is the theocratic government that the UN, the EU and the US have been busy negotiating with in an effort to slow down the Republic's nuclear program. Sanctions imposed on Iran linked to its illicit uranium enrichment program, failed to stop Iran's burgeoning ballistic missiles program as it became more technologically advanced and capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

In efforts to restore the original 2015 nuclear agreement during which time Iran steadily, surreptitiously continued its uranium enrichment, its threats against its neighbours, its dispatch of Shia militias into Syria to aid in Bashar al-Assad's vengeance attacks on Syria's majority Sunni population, the Western negotiators have re-discovered Iran's penchant for duplicity. Even more so, Iranian negotiators are now less ostensibly willing to negotiate in good faith.

The very concept of good faith is risible in the face of a regime that practices taqqiya -- offputting an adversary for the greater goal of eventually gaining advantage; in this case denying any intention of posing a threat to the region much less gaining the goal of nuclear weaponry, arguing it would be for peaceful, civil purposes only, the while at every level of authority threatening the existence of Israel; its presence an intolerable affront to Islam.

Months ago the Iranians let it be known that they built an underground missile complex they called a "missile city". Imaging company Planet Labs Inc. took satellite images showing launch preparations at Iran's Imam Khomeini Spaceport; a clear defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, whereby Iran is not to take action of any kind involving ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

But this kind of arsenal is critical to Iran's plans to achieve Middle East dominance and in the process destabilizing the region. Non-Arab Iran's Shi'ism while a dominant strain of Islam is in the minority; most Arab countries are Sunni-dominant. Iran's plans to control the Middle East stem from its ancient preeminence in the region, along with its political-weight sectarian authoritarianism.

MOSSAD And The Iranian Nuclear Threat

"The scientists’ motivations were all different."

"Mossad found out what they deeply wanted in their lives and offered it to them."

"There was an inner circle of scientists who knew more about the operation, and an outer circle who helped out but had less information."

"All of them are very safe today."

Unnamed source

 

"Unlike in the previous rounds of talks, Britain is currently holding the strongest line. This is very much appreciated by Israel, as there is a sense that the Americans are so desperate to return to the deal that they would be too soft." 

"However, it is quite clear that Britain and the rest of the international community still sees negotiation as the most effective track to rein in Iranian ambitions."

"Israel is not convinced that this will be enough, and also doubt that more problematic partners, like Russia and China, will be able to hold same line."

"Therefore, the credibility of the threat from Israel needs to be enhanced, reiterated and reimposed, as part of a dual effort to put real pressure on Iranians."

"In terms of geopolitics, that is the message that these operations are sending to the international community."

Richard Pater, Executive Director, Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (Bicom)

Blown up: Iran's Natanz nuclear plant, seen in 2007  (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

The Israeli secret service knows that you can have all the technological advantages in the world to enable the process of acquiring knowledge of the machinations of other countries relating to their military plans, to unlock the  secret blueprints they keep to themselves irrespective of the facade presented to the outside world, but there are no assets for recovery of inside realities quite like the effectiveness and efficiency of a core of insider recruits whose data delivery leaves no room for guesswork.

 

Humint -- human intelligence -- is the ultimate in revealing the plans of a country derived from its own inner circles of those in the know.

Insider assistance in carrying through plans of sabotage to set back the agenda of government agencies is another invaluable tool, made all that more approachable and successful with the willing aid of inside intelligence and cooperation. When the actions of insiders in working against the interests of the state are revealed, they pay a stiff penalty; their commitment to undermining the resources of their own country owes much to their dissatisfaction with the direction that country is heading in. Conscience and sympathy are great aids in deception.

It is a secret to no one that the Islamic Republic of Iran has been working toward attaining nuclear weapons. It is just that aspiration, linked to Tehran's Ayatollahs' support of Islamist terrorism fomenting disorder and violent atrocities on behalf of the Republic's determination to surmount resistance to its plans of Shi'ite conquest and Persian control in a Sunni-majority region of Arab states that drew the attention of the West to its malign purpose. The UN's IAEA's efforts at monitoring the Revolutionary Iranian Guard Corps' uranium enrichment program stems from the threat they pose to the region and the wider world.

 

But the one regional state that is indelibly in the crosshairs of the Republic's lethal weaponry of mass destruction is undeniably Israel. The message delivered time and again, publicly and with venomous intent is the promise to obliterate Israel's presence from the Middle East. When fundamentalist extremists are convinced that they have been selected by an all-powerful heavenly entity to furnish the means by which a perceived enemy can be extinguished, rational arguments based on human rights have no impact.

 

The Jewish state knows full well from historical events that it can rely on no other forces than its own for protection from extermination. Its secret services know how to convince others, vulnerable to uncertainty over the morals involved in human rights violations that they have an obligation and a part to play in overcoming the unconscionable plans of dictators. And because Iran is just such a theistic dictatorship, its people are restive and among them those in elite situations of command who are prepared to intervene.

 

The Mossad spy agency is renowned for its cultivated professionalism in intelligence gathering. And it relies upon the secretive collaboration of the dissatisfied to find purpose in aiding and abetting the downfall of their own governments who have failed abysmally the most basic tests of human decency.

A number of Iranian scientists working in the Republic's structures devoted to nuclear development acceded to requests for cooperation. They were, however, duped into believing that it was a collaboration on their part with Iranian dissident groups, not with an arm of a foreign government they would be working with.

 

In the process however, they were tasked with smuggling explosives into the secure and highly protected underground vaults of Iran's nuclear emplacements. In April, a blast destroyed the Natanz plant's independent internal power system meant to energize centrifuges enriching uranium in the protected underground reinforced concrete bunker. That blast represented the second time in a year the base was attacked, by what other countries' security officials identify as an Israeli project. 

It was not, after all, exiled Iranian dissidents with whom these collaborative insiders worked, but with Israel. In some instances the explosives were dropped into the facility by drones while allied components were smuggled through security in catering trucks, reported The Jewish Chronicle, which broke the story. Another July 2020 explosion was the work of explosives hidden in building materials that formed part of the building construction a year earlier.

A motorcycle-size quadcopter drone carried out a bombing raid on the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company in Karaj in June, north of Tehran. When the news was revealed to the public eye, Israel, with its policy of never claiming ownership of such events, made no comment. Attacks on the Natanz plant, according to Iran's acknowledgement, had the effect of setting its nuclear program back months. An ongoing search for the Iranians suspected of involvement in the operation, now fugitives, was foiled, since they are said to have been spirited to safety by Mossad agents.

Tehran, while spuriously claiming it has no interests in obtaining nuclear weapons, has been steadily increasing levels to which it enriches uranium far beyond the limit set by the Nuclear Agreement it signed in 2015, levels that outside nuclear scientists agree has only one application, and that would be a military application. "From a technical standpoint, the enemy's plan was rather beautiful", said head of the Iranian parliamentary energy committee, Fereydoon Abbasi Davani rashly.

A map of north Iran showing the location of Mossad’s first assaults on Natanz and quadcopter attack on Karaj (Photo: GETTY IMAGES, ASINGUARDS, YOUTUBE. Illustration: Sheree Fadil)

 

Making Russia Suffer

"I cannot say whether Canada has done enough, but I am sure Canada is able to do much more and that is what your prime minister will discuss here tomorrow. The reputation of Canada is quite positive here. Yours was the first government to react to human rights violations by the previous regime."
"Because of what was stolen, Russian ships of every kind in the West should be put under the permanent threat of arrest. Canada should seize any Russian aircraft that land in Canadian territory."
"[Ukrainians want to see measures that] made Russia suffer economically and politically and hurt its reputation in the world. This is necessary because we are not the only country at risk. The world has been made less safe and there must be punishment for those who upset the international order."
Oleksandr Sushko, Institute of euro-Atlantic Integration

"Together with our international allies, our government is taking a strong stance in our support for Ukraine."
Prime Minister Stephen Harper

"This has been the cancer tumour of the democratization process in Ukraine. Canada could do something concrete and different such as teaching how public bodies should control finance rather than the Soviet system. Part of that would be basic principles in areas such as anti-corruption."
"What is repeated non-stop on the issue of Russia and Crimea is that what Russia did looks unacceptable and has been said to have been unacceptable, but it is still accepted."
"The West does not believe that Russia will do anything else, so they do not want to harm economic relations with Russia. They have basically accepted this by not putting in place very tangible sanctions."
"[Ukrainians feel that the West has let them down from] an overestimation on the Ukrainian side about what could be done. Many thought that all the West had to do was to call Putin and tell him to stop it. But that was not possible."
Vera Nanivska, International Centre for Policy Studies, Kyiv

Canadian Prime Minister became the first western leader to visit Ukraine since Russia's annexation of Crimea. On its own Canada is certainly limited in its response, beyond the imposition of sanctions on Russia to express Canada's and the international community's outrage at Russian involvement in Ukraine's affairs and the breakaway and absorption of Crimea by Russia. Canada can certainly help to mentor Ukraine's military.

Which will be somewhat of a change from the United States' refusal of Ukraine's interim prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk's request that his country be supplied with arms by the U.S. at this juncture in its travail, fearing a further invasion by Russian troops and a needed military response. Doubtless, President Obama refused on the basis of 'protecting' Ukraine from its own rash actions, defying and defending itself from Russia's manoeuvres.

A Ukrainian soldier smokes a cigarette next to a machine gun at the Belbek air force base not far from the city of Sevastopol, in Crimea, on March 21, 2014 (AFP Photo/Viktor Drachev)

Ukraine is looking for action to match the words of its supporters in the West. Canada condemned last Sunday's Crimean referendum and it condemned the Kremlin's absorption of Crimea, leading Canada to impose sanctions to match those imposed by the United States, and to advance a travel ban on a select number of Russian President Vladimir Putin's cronies.But to become militarily involved? Not even remotely likely.

Crimea and Sevastopol formally joined Russia on Friday when President Putin signed into law an agreement that the Russian Duma approved with the government of Crimea. And though Mr. Putin pledged to go no further, no one quite believes he has no eye to acquire eastern Ukraine for Russia. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and other Baltic and east European countries are understandably nervous about the status of their own minority Russian citizens whom Russia might decide at any time to 'protect' with the movement of troops.

A Ukrainian soldier looks at an armoured vehicle moving on a road towards a position not far from the border between Ukraine and Russia, in the Kharkiv region of eastern Ukraine, on March 21, 2014 (AFP Photo/Sergey Bobok)

Ukrainians are disappointed in the West's milquetoast response to Russia's land grab. The travel bans and freezing of bank accounts and other sanctions imposed by Europe are being mocked by Russia. This is not the response that Ukraine thought would result from President Putin's aggravated assault on Ukraine territory. On his part President Putin banned several U.S. politicians from travel to Russia, but doesn't appear to feel at the moment that much more need to done in tit-for-tat.

A man waves a Russian flag as people look at fireworks in the center of the Crimean city of Sevastopol on March 21, 2014 (AFP Photo/Viktor Drachev)

He is obviously not losing sleep at night over his luke-warm isolation from the international community over his bold and speedy acquisition for Russia of Ukrainian territory, even given Russia's heritage claim of right-of-ownership. It is that claim that keeps Mr. Putin fixed to his goal and satisfied that he has achieve it in part, and justified in proceeding on to additional claims, should he feel so disposed.

How the international community is disposed to react is of little concern to him at the moment. Since from all appearances unless proven to the contrary, their own economic and energy interests have dissuaded them from any rash actions in expression of their dismay at the turn that events have taken, in transforming Russia back to its traditional stance of aggression and entitlement in eastern Europe, and the consequences be damned.