COVID Deaths : Correcting The Numbers

"[Right now Canadians only know about those people who have died from the novel coronavirus after being diagnosed with it]. But there may be people in the community -- in fact there likely are -- who are not being captured by this process."
"One of the cleanest ways of accounting for those 'missed' deaths is to compare the number of deaths now to the same time period in previous years." 
"We can get a sense as to how wrong or how right our existing models were -- and maybe improve them down the road."
Professor Raywat Deonandan, epidemiologist specializing in global health, University of Ottawa

"We have observed anecdotally people presenting late in the course of their cardiovascular illness."
"So instead of calling 911 after 20 or 30 minutes of pain, they're waiting a longer period of time."
"People can get the attention they need."
Dr.Rob Beanlands, head, division of cardiology, University of Ottawa Heart Institute

Healthcare workers do testing at a drive-thru COVID-19 assessment centre at Etobicoke General Hospital in Toronto on April 21, 2020. Because of massive data gaps, the coronavirus death toll likely is being underestimated.

There is a formal, declared death rate of COVID-19 in Canada collectively, and the provinces also deliver regular updates on deaths due to the novel coronavirus. But these numbers register those deaths where the presence of COVID has been diagnosed. There are many suspected instances of death where no diagnosis has taken place, where people have died at home or in hospital or in care homes and though COVID might have been involved in their deaths, without a test and diagnosis, the cause can be attributed to conditions outside of COVID.

Now Statistics Canada, the federal numbers-gathering agency, is preparing to identify the "extra" deaths taking place in Canada, over and above what is considered a normal rate, based on previous months and years on average. The agency has plans for the release of an analysis on "excess deaths", considered a measure of the number of deaths occurring beyond expectations in the country, aside from the numbers COVID-19 is seen to be directly responsible for.

Examining the total number of deaths from any cause and comparing that with historical averages, according to epidemiologists, can offer a more reliably complete idea of the impact of the pandemic, given that it can include people who have died from COVID-19, despite not having been diagnosed, or people who died while awaiting (postponed) surgery. Plans are for Statistics Canada to compare death rates in the first three months of 2020 with the rates in the first three months of the previous year.

The goal is to publish more timely information on deaths, working alongside provincial and territorial vital statistics offices. News of the planned data release has been welcomed by Canadian epidemiologists, as a means by which a deeper understanding of COVID-19's human toll can be achieved. Official figures released by authorities has the number of lives the disease has claimed as 4,567 throughout Canada. Epidemiologist David Fisman of University of Toronto views excess-death data as critical. "This is the ultimate metric of the impact of COVID-19, and whether we make it better with these very costly measures we've taken."

People who have died from what has been attributed to flu or stroke, but could be seen to be linked to COVID-19, and not ending up in the total count of COVID deaths reveals a real shortcoming in the system of data-gathering. As well, information on excess deaths is critical as well in assessing accuracy of pandemic models. A number of questions could be answered with an analysis of excess deaths in Canada:

• Are a significant number of undiagnosed people dying at home from COVID related issues?
• What is the effect of drop in the number of people seeking emergency help at hospitals?
• Has there been a rise in the mortality rate for other diseases?
• Has there been an increase in suicide rates?

In the city of Ottawa 13 percent more obituaries were published in April than in March (863 and 761 respectively). Montreal, hard-hit by COVID, saw a 45 percent increase in obituaries between March (606) and April (876), while also seeing a 38 percent jump on obituaries in April in comparison with 2019. Dr.Beanlands, head of University of Ottawa Heart Institute, notes emergency room visits have decreased by up to 50 percent during the pandemic, and people arriving at the hospital with major heart attacks decreased as well by up to 30 percent.

What is obvious is that people have been deterred from seeking timely medical attention. The concern at the heart institute is that people fear arriving at the hospital because of the fear of the perceived presence of COVID. Anyone with severe symptoms, Dr.Beanlands stressed, should call 911, and those concerned by their symptoms should contact their family doctor or specialist, many of whom offer virtual visits, while the heart institute itself has taken significant measures to protect against COVID-19.

In contrast to Canada's approach up to now, Europe published weekly mortality statistics, provided by 24 countries, analyzed by a network of epidemiologists, the network estimating that the pandemic has caused 149,447 excess deaths. In the United States, similar data is published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The death count surged to six times the normal number in New York City, according to an analysis undertaken by the New York Times.

Interestingly enough, and as has been seen in India with a dramatically plummeting traffic accident death rate, the lockdown has seen fewer traffic fatalities, since the bulk of the population is heeding the stricture to remain at home, and this trend should also be taken into account through analysis of excess-death numbers during the pandemic.

Royal Papworth Hospital in Cambridge, Britain

Neil Hall/Getty Images

"Definitely, if we are just counting COVID-confirmed deaths, we are underestimating the true death toll of COVID on Canadian society."
"There are a lot of things to take into consideration. That being said, it sounds like a lot of European countries and the U.S. have been able to produce this sort of data and publish it on a weekly, if not monthly, basis. Hopefully, COVID-19 will allow us to expedite the process here."
"On the end of the person filling out the paperwork, that usually has to be done in a prompt time. Depending on the province, it’s usually within 48 hours, or quicker if possible."
"Right now, the medical system is very focused on treating acute COVID. Sometimes if things are considered non-urgent, tests are being delayed , procedures and surgeries."
"What will the consequences be? It’s hard to know, but timely data about deaths will help doctors understand, and react."
"We may see an increase in breast cancer, colon cancer or cervical cancer."
"Having that all-cause mortality data would be important. So we see that maybe the number of strokes or heart attacks has significantly increased, so maybe it’s time for more public messaging to tell people: these are the signs and symptoms of a stroke or heart attack; do not ignore it, go to the hospital."
Dr.Jennifer Kwan, Burlington, Ontario 

Solo Living in Canada

"Alberta has a relatively young population within Canada. It's one of the few places where there are still more children in the population than seniors. That's a big factor behind why Alberta has a relatively low share of people living alone."
"It's been a very, very long-term trend over the last 100 years or so. Again, most of it relating to shifts in the population becoming older. But there's also been a lot of different societal trends and evolution that have contributed [to one-person households]."
"Now in more recent years, [with] the advent of social media, it's easier for people to live alone, but maintain contact with the outside world easily."
"Things like improvements in life expectancy, that's meant more people living alone in their senior ages; things like introduction of no-fault divorce has led to more people living alone following a separation or divorce."
Nora Galbraith, senior analyst, Statistics Canada

"Living alone or living in households with more than one person, I don't think that's really the issue. There are people who will feel lonely in a crowd."
"Do we design them [municipalities] to encourage people to talk to each other [or] do we design neighbourhoods so people could drive right into their front garage and walk right into their house?"
"To me, the easier answer out of this for any individual is to find an opportunity to volunteer, be of service to your community. And that'll not only have you bumping into other people, it will also get you out of your loneliness."
Scott McKeen, Edmonton councillor

 “Being alone does not always equate to loneliness. Solitude can be about doing things that are best done alone such as thinking, reading, planning, writing and creating."

“If this goes on [depression] for a long time, they can become desperate and, then, hopeless,” says "When they [depressed people] compare themselves to others, they feel inferior and worthless. Part of the problem with loneliness in our society is that it is stigmatized so people don’t go around telling others they feel lonely."
"We have found that loneliness can predict morbidity, illnesses and mortality." 
"If we are aware of it [loneliness], that’s the first step. The second step is understanding the reason why someone is lonely. Is it because I live in a specific place? Is it because I come across as too aggressive? Is it because I mistreat people? Some people are lonely since childhood, and it’s intertwined in their personality."
"They’re temporary replacements [Facebook, Instagram, Twitter] and cannot replace the human touch. For some people, it can feel like since they have 10,000 ‘likes,’ they must be very popular. But when they need someone to relate to, then they may feel the loneliness even deeper than if they didn’t have Instagram and all those things. So, when they need a hug or someone to go out walking with, that’s when they realize people are electronically available, but that’s it."
Ami Rokach, clinical psychologist, York University, Toronto

Statistics Canada released its latest report a week ago, revealing that there are more people in Canada living alone than ever before. The one-person dwelling is fast becoming the most common configuration of the Canadian household. The number of Canadians living alone amounts to close to four million out of a population of close to 37-million; a doubling of the 1981 number, according to the General Social Survey [Families] 2017 and the 2016 Census. Those living alone now make up 28 percent of countrywide households.

Alberta stands out as the province having the lowest share of one-person households at 24 percent. Couple households with children remain dominant on the Alberta landscape, with 29.4 percent of the population. Quebec has the highest percentage of one-person households with 33.3 percent, followed by the Yukon with 32.2 percent, Nova Scotia with 29.5 percent, and British Columbia with 28.8 percent. The Province of Ontario stands at 25.9 percent one-person households.

Statistics Canada's Nora Galbraith points out, that the one critical factor that accounts for how many people might live alone in a region is the age of the population. Alberta, for example, has one of the lowest rates of seniors, the very demographic most likely to live alone, which can be that key factor in accounting for their lower rate of one-person households and individuals living on their own.

The report suggests that 60 percent of Canadians between the ages of 20 to 34 living alone not in a couple relationship in 2017 intend at some point in their lives to marry or remarry as the case may be. Over 70 percent of that demographic claim they may eventually live in a common-law relationship. Gender as a determining factor for living alone has been ruled out, with men and women equally likely across Canada to live alone.

Partially as a result of longer life expectancy resulting in proportionately fewer senior women living alone as widows, the number of men living alone -- particularly within the senior grouping -- has increased, although women living alone were almost twice as likely to be seniors, points out the report. The country has become more urban and as a result a surge in the number of high rise apartments and condominiums has taken place, geared toward single-person dwellings.

"Our relationships help provide a sense of meaning and purpose in life. And that can translate to better self-care as well as less risk-taking. [Social isolation contributes as strongly to mortality as does smoking 15 cigarettes a day]."
"We tend to assume that this is an issue that may be specific to older adults or the elderly, and while of course, that population is important to consider, it’s not isolated to that group."
"When we look across the data, this loneliness] affects both men and women. We don’t see any effect in terms of it being stronger in older age and in fact, we have some evidence to suggest that it may be stronger in those under 65."

Julianne Holt-Lunstad, professor of psychology and neuroscience, Brigham Young University

Hate Crimes in Canada

"It's obviously disturbing and alarming [increase in racist attacks]. But we have to remember the vast majority of Canadians are exceptionally tolerant and welcoming and accepting to minorities of all kinds."
"It's tricky [establishing a national strategy on hate crimes, particularly online]." But when people are engaged in really vociferous rhetoric online, that can also fuel and foreshadow violence off line, so we have to curb it."
Andrea Freedman, president of the Jewish Federation of Ottawa

"We were obviously surprised by the data, and not really surprised."
"It [the Muslim society's own tracking mechanism for racist attacks] doesn't track crimes based on their perceived identities."
"Islamophobia doesn't just target Muslims. It targets people perceived to be Muslim, like Sikhs, Christian Arabs and those from Southeast Asian communities."
Ihsaan Gardee, executive director, National Council of Canadian Muslims 

People hold up a signs during a demonstration to oppose motion M103 in Montreal, Saturday, March 4, 2017.
THE CANADIAN PRESS IMAGES/Graham Hughes

The latest report out by Statistics Canada on hate crimes taking place throughout the country in 2017 contained few surprises. That there would be a jump, although it is even so well known that up to 2/3 of total hate crimes that occur are not even reported, was expected. Casual narratives of ongoing incidents attest to the constant presence of prejudice, hostility and hatred directed against certain groups in society. Blacks in Canada have experienced incidents of prejudice since forever and continue to, accounting for 16 percent of all hate crimes reported in 2017. They characterize the most common race-, or ethnicity-related hate crime.

A doubling of incidents directed at Muslims was seen between 2016 and 2017. There were 139 incidents of hate crimes in 2015 and that number had soared to 349 the following year after an initial decline for that population group. The overall percentage of such crimes directed against Muslims in Canada represent 17 percent of the total, as opposed to 16 percent for Blacks. And then there is the perennial, most-favoured-by-racists target, the Jewish population accounting for 18 percent of all nationwide hate crimes; the second consecutive year of increases identifying Jews as the most targeted victims of hate crimes.

Jews, and undoubtedly Muslims and Blacks as well, must take steps to ensure security in high-profile gathering places such as synagogues and community centres where attacks are most common by employing electronic security measures along with hiring security guards. In a country like Canada, one which was built on immigration and where a general consensus exists that people of various backgrounds have traditionally integrated and accepted one another it is all the more shocking that the pernicious persistence of such incidents occur, grow in numbers and continue to threaten.

Police forces across the country dealt with a record number of hate crimes in 2017, Statistics Canada data found. Here, anti-Semitic graffiti that was spray painted on the door of The Glebe Minyan in Ottawa in 2016 is cleaned up. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

Yet a more comprehensive Statistics Canada victimization survey dating from 2014 found respondents to be victims of over 330,00 incidents believed by those suffering them to have been motivated by hate; and two-thirds of such incidents failed to be reported to police. Even so Statistics Canada feels that their records showing substantial increases year over year may be the result of a growing tendency to report, and perhaps not indicate an increase in incidents.

Nowhere in the report is there the merest hint of a suggestion that while Muslims speak constantly of "Islamophobia", inclusive of any kind of criticism of Islam, or reference to terrorism and Islam in one breath, many among them have indulged in slanderous campaigns against the state of Israel, bringing Middle East politics to Canada, and by extension impacting deleteriously on the lives of Jews in Canada through their all-inclusive campaigns. And if those campaigns don't qualify as hate campaigns, what would?

From establishing "Palestinian" friendship clubs on university campuses, to staging anti-Israel protests and campaigning against Jewish students who are Zionists as enabling a purported "Apartheid" regime, the vicious slanders fomenting hatred sweep Jewish students and their families into the wide-ranging anti-Semitism launched by Muslim-Canadian groups influencing non-Muslim leftists to swell the numbers of "anti-Zionist" anti-Semites clamouring against Zionism and isolating Canadian Jews.

One of the most active chapters of Students for Justice in Palestine, at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology, organizing anti-Israel campaigns and events throughout the year (SJP at UOIT/DC Facebook page)

The incidents of Islamofascist terrorist attacks whenever and wherever opportunities arise more than adequately demonstrates a seriously dysfunctional Islam that threatens security and stability wherever Muslims have migrated, fail to integrate and agitate for Sharia law, threatening to Islamicize whichever European, North American or Asian country they infiltrate in astonishing numbers fulfilling their obligation to Islam's injunction to its faithful to jihad.

It's hardly surprising under those conditions that fear and resentment at the presence of Muslims who ghettoize themselves in Islamic communities, inspire in the surrounding population. A search of any daily newspaper where Muslims have congregated rewards by the appearance of Arab or Muslims names attached to crime reports of gangs and violence, disproportionate to their numbers in society. Little wonder that distrust and fear is the result, among the general population.

As for Jews, law-abiding, proud of their Canadian citizenship, leaders of industry, valuing  higher education, reaching out to the wider population base to build bridges, nothing seems enough to convince some bigots that their suspicion, fear and hatred has no rational basis. The result of which is that despite making an effort to be model citizens, reflecting a cultural, social proclivity to just that, there seems to be no successful way to convince detractors that in detesting the presence of Jews they expose their innate racist malice.

Errata: StatsCanada

"It is also a reminder that there is a human element to all statistics. Every major data series published by StatsCan [Statistics Canada] at some point has had something similar happen -- someone uses the wrong spreadsheet, forgets to check if all the responses are included, mindlessly inputs last month's data for this month, the list of possible mistakes is a census of human imperfection."
"There is even a seasonal component to these errors -- it is no coincidence that a similar event last August led StatsCan to delay its release of national household survey data. People are on vacation in summer, and those on duty are simply not as vigilant as in other months ..."
"The initial error may have been made by one person but, frankly, it should have been picked up. There were enough red flags out there. The system is built so there are checks and balances. I would say it's more of a collective failure of the checks and balances to pick this up."
"This isn't symptomatic of budget cuts, it's not symptomatic of the census. It's just somebody made a mistake."
Philip Cross, research co-ordinator, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, former chief economic analyst at Statistics Canada

"I struggle to think of a comparable foul-up anywhere in the world. The revisions are broad-sweeping and affected every major measure in a highly significant manner. Theories regarding how one single factor could be responsible for the revisions went straight out the window as StatsCan pointed to a systems error that affected everything."
Derek Holt, vice-president, Scotia-bank Economics

Canada Corrects Jobs Report for July

Canada's jobs numbers for July have been corrected to show that employment rose by 41,700, not the 200 that statistics agency first reported last week. The agency failed to count workers who should have been categorized as full-time employees.

According to corrected data, employment rose by 41,700 in July, the result of an increase in part-time work (+60,000). Full time employment declined by 18,100. 

The unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percentage points to 7.0%.

In the 12 months to July, employment increased by 157,000 or 0.9%, with most of the growth in part-time work. The total hours worked were up slightly (+0.3%) compared with July 2013.

When, earlier this month, Statistics Canada released its updated jobs figures with the published results of Canada having seen the creation of 200 new jobs in the last month it represented a stunning blow to expectations. One might think that the bright heads at StatsCan -- confronted with such an abysmally low figure for job creation when at least one hundred times that number was expected -- might reasonably have felt compelled to look again and yet again at the source of that conclusion.

Evidently not; the improbable number, dashing the hopes and anticipation of financial analysts and employment experts, was simply put out there for public view and consumption, and the country was beset with a headache and upset stomach over those results. On Friday the venerable numbers-crunching federal agency admitted that an "isolated incident" resulting from "human error" was responsible for the ridiculous numbers in its Labour Force Survey for July, released on August 8.

Now, the total loss of full-time employment stands at 18,000; dismal but much improved over the original 60,000 said to have been lost in the original report. The jump in part-time work remains unchanged from 60,000 and the unemployment rate remained at 7% for July, slightly improved over the previous month. "This was an isolated incident", Wayne Smith, the agency's chief statistician stated.

"I am fully confident in the integrity of the Labour Force Survey program", he emphasized, of the labour survey that undergoes a "major redesign", every decade. The last redesign at a cost of $5-million, had been launched in 2011 and it included an updating of the processing system used for the jobs report. "During the system change that was implemented with the July release, one program was not updated", admitted the agency.

"This was a human error that resulted in the incorrect processing of some data for July 2014 only. Certain respondents that should have been classified as employed were counted as not in the labour force, resulting in an over-estimation of job losses in full-time employment. The agency is confident in the accuracy of the corrected data. [An internal review was launched into] internal procedures ... to ensure that such errors are avoided in the future system updates to the Labour Force Survey, or any other program."

The newspapers were full of glee and blame over the awkward revelations that Statistics Canada, the branch of government at-a-remove that is so feted within Canada as the producer of reliably accurate statistics stumbled so badly. But, they claim, it isn't the agency's fault; clearly it is the fault of the Conservative-led government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper who has cut back departmental spending to such a degree that accuracy is imperilled. Those big, bad conservatives! If they weren't in power everything would be just fine.

And here again, is the former chief economic analyst at Statistics Canada: "First, the mistake was not due to a lack of resources. While there have been cutbacks at Statistics Canada recently, the agency knows not to cut the "Crown jewels" of its statistical program -- the labour force survey, the consumer price index and GDP. It is one thing to make an error in the estimate of livestock; just admitting to a mistake of unknown magnitude with the labour force survey is front page news ... While we are at it, let's discard the conspiracy theories about the government ordering up a better set of numbers than what was published Friday.
"No government would ever try something so ham-handed; all Statistics Canada would have to do is call a press conference and state that an attempt had been made to interfere with the data, and the government's credibility would be destroyed."

Importing The Obama Solution

"To start, this means ending the disastrous trend toward less and less government spending and employment each year and taking advantage of the current period of slack to renew and build out our infrastructure."
U.S. economist Larry Summers

Finally, federal Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has made his economic concerns and the agenda arising from them known to the public. He is no shrinking violet in pursuing an avenue he has convinced himself would make him stand out as boldly innovative. And so, he has decided that what is good enough for the U.S. and for Ontario is certainly good enough for the whole of Canada, under his supervision.

Canada led the G7 in economic growth and business investment. Our job creation record was far superior, doubling the American rate, higher than any G7 country. And in Canada, poverty rates fell by over 40%. These are no mean achievements, and they were in fact the envy of Canada's economic partners who spoke in great admiration and respect for the economic security relative to theirs that Canada's represented.

It has been widely acknowledged by the political pundits that the Conservatives have it all over their political opponents in the House of Commons through their economic record, carefully steering Canada in the right direction, away from the collapse suffered throughout the globe when the U.S. went into its massive financial failure and massive government grants and loans were required to keep their heads above the flood of impending disaster.

Americans are just now fully assessing the value of the huge payouts that their government made them responsible for well into the future and their children's future to rescue failed financial institutions and auto manufacturers. They survived thanks to the American public's largess, but the middle class in America is struggling as never before. But the Obama stimulus that has been panned for its value after the fact is what Mr. Summers is advocating for Canada.

Ontario hasn't done too badly, there has been economic growth, but the provincial Liberal government has depleted resources in a misguided but extremely committed social agenda that has wasted intolerably huge sums of treasury to realize programs in environmental sustainably energy, in politicizing priority projects, in seeking expedient solutions to ensuring Liberal longevity, in failed infrastructure programs, and advancing a huge debt for Ontarians.

But what has been dubbed the details of the Nanny State is hugely appealing to Justin Trudeau whose main campaign expressed concern is the hit that the Canadian middle class has taken, so much so that his heart bleeds for that demographic that he has committed to having their lives improved under his careful administration of charging infrastructure that he now calls social programs to the future in an hugely enlarged debt.

"This shows the middle class isn't withering away", Philip Cross, research fellow for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and former chief economic analyst at Statistics Canada stated with the release of a new StatsCan study on Canadian families. "It shows Canadians have money to set aside for savings, so it's not like they are living from paycheque to paycheque, which is the way a lot of the narrative surrounding the middle class has recently been framed."

This just-released study represents the first comprehensive focus on net worth since 2005 by Statistics Canada. It highlights the manner in which families have weathered the recession. And it found that rising values of houses and pension fund gains have given fuel to higher net worth for middle class Canadian families.

The study verifies the median net value of Canadian families jumped 44.5% to $243,800 in 2012 up from $168,700 in 2005. The median net worth figure leaped 80% over the past fifteen years. Adjusted for inflation, measuring money left if all debts are paid, all assets sold. This is the middle class that has been described by Justin Trudeau as struggling pitifully against the burden of trying to make ends meet.

They've done that very nicely, with the help of the current government giving them a break in lower taxes, in helping families with children, in allowing seniors to split incomes for taxation purposes, and through a myriad of other incentives and tax breaks. "I would say that that contradicts the idea that all the wealth in the last decade was hoarded by the 1% and the rest of us are fighting over table scraps", commented Mr. Cross.

Families in the low-income classification are those that are suffering. They've lost financial ground. Their net worth has slightly declined since 1999. The bottom  20% of families back then had a median net worth of $1,300, which dropped to $1,100 in 2005 and has remained there to 2012. Alternatively, the wealthiest 20% of families in Canada could claim 67.4% of the country's net worth in 2012, and that's down from 69.2% in 2005.

And while debt owed by Canadian families has increased substantially particularly through mortgages, that debt has been more than balanced by steady gains in the housing market during that same period. Family homes realized a huge increase in value over the past decade with the median value of a home $300,000 in 2012, up 83.2% from 1999 and 46.6% from 2005.

"It used to be that Canadians wanted to buy the biggest home so they could make the biggest buck. But in the past year or so, I've noticed more and more homebuyers are looking at what they're more comfortable carrying. People today are concerned where rates are going, they're concerned about their jobs, about the economy. So they're saying let's pay what we can afford. They want a buffer of cash on hand."
Vince Gaetano, principal broker, monstermortgage.ca

So not only are we prospering in the middle class, we're also getting a little smarter. The question is, will we be smart enough to bypass the siren song of Justin Trudeau's impression that we need a break from the big, bad Conservatives who have led us into this place of economic comfort?