ME -- The Stage Is Set ... Will the Play Commence?

"What they're doing is setting the theatre to provide an expanded set of offensive options should the president direct military strikes."

"[This time the administration does not appear to have such a] discrete objective [as was witnessed before strikes against the nuclear program in Iran last year]." 

Dana Stroul, former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East 

 

"[While Iran has the right to] operate professionally in international airspace and waters ... any unsafe and unprofessional behaviour near U.S. forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization."

U.S. Central Command

 

"[If the U.S. brings in more F-35s, that would suggest that it plans on] operating inside Iranian airspace in a more considerable way."

"[These movements -- of the U.S. fleet in the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean -- indicate that] both the U.S. and Israel are very concerned about an Iranian retaliation against Israel, even if Israel is not directly involved."

Gregory Brew, senior Iran analyst, Eurasia Group

    The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) transits the Arabian Gulf while operating in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Indra Beaufort

 

Dozens of aircraft have been deployed by the U.S. military to bases near Iran, while some dozen warships have been assembled in or near the Middle East in the past month, according to satellite imagery, tracking data and U.S. defence officials. The stage certainly appears to be set for a potential U.S. strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran within a few weeks, as tensions continue to rise. Prior to strikes last year against the Iranian nuclear program, there was an even greater buildup of military might than on this occasion, lending an air of real uncertainty as to the outcome of what is currently a standoff between the abrasively defiant regime and the challenge of the powerful United States.

 

Not all experts on the Middle East and Iran are convinced that this show of force will culminate in an actual invasion to remove the Ayatollah-led, IRGC-fortified regime. The death toll from Iran's violent crackdown on protests is still rising, with activists and human rights groups claiming over 6,000 Iranians have been killed through the government crackdown, though some insist the death toll reaches even higher -- in the tens of thousands.  

 

President Trump speaks of his 'armada' whose purpose he hints, is to place pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. Iran, he stated, is "talking to us, and we'll see if we can do something, otherwise, we'll see what happens".  For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated "Just as (Iran) is ready for negotiations, it is also ready for war."  While "Structural arrangements for #negotiations are progressing", senior Iranian security official Ali Larijani stated on social media. 

 

The USS Roosevelt (DDG-80) is armed with powerful Aegis systems, featuring Mk 41 Vertical Launching Systems (VLS) for Standard missiles, Tomahawks, and ASROC; a 5-inch Mk 45 gun; Phalanx CIWS/SeaRAM; 25mm machine guns; and Mk 32 torpedo tubes for lightweight torpedoes

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Indra Beaufort

 

Accompanied by three guided missile destroyers, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln entered Central Command's area of responsibility and is now in the north Arabian Sea. Air defences and dozens of missiles are carried by each destroyer, including Tomahawks, a type of munition U.S. forces used back in June when they struck Iranian nuclear targets. While historically the U.S. has maintained an aircraft carrier in the Middle East there had been none in the region, when the Lincoln was redirected from the South China Sea.

 

According to defence officials, at least eight other warships are now positioned in the area, including at least two guided-missile destroyers, the USS McFaul and USS Mitscher, near the Strait of Hormuz. In this same area in recent days, Iran deployed drones. Analysts identified an Iranian drone carrier from satellite imagery, the Shahid Bagheri. Over three dozen U.S. aircraft, among them fighter jets, drones and planes used for refuelling reconnaissance  and transport have been forwarded to U.S. bases.

 

F-15 aircraft from the squadron that fought the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June have been deployed now, along with nine A-10C Thunderbolt IIs, used to protect groups on the ground from enemy forces, stationed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. America's ME allies like Jordan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia and Qatar have alerted Washington that they will not allow the U.S. to use the bases on their soil to attack Iran. Which is where the USS Lincoln steps into the picture since assaults can be launched directly from its position at sea.

 

EA-19G Growlers, electronic warfare aircraft that jam radars and disrupt communications which are on board the USS Lincoln, would be useful should the U.S. intend to enter Iranian airspace to hit targets in the interior. The USS Delbert D. Black visited Israel and left port from there on Sunday, moving further into the Red Sea. Additionally, two more destroyers are in the eastern Mediterranean, the USS Bulkeley and the USS Roosevelt, according to American defence officials. 

 

USS Abraham Lincoln, The War Zone

 

Trump 'Monitoring the Situation in Iran'

"The truth is only President Trump knows what he's going to do and a very, very small team of advisers are read into his thinking on that."

"He continues to closely monitor the situation on the ground in Iran."

"All options remain on the table." 

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt 

 

"President Trump is a man of action, not endless talk like we see at the United Nations."

"He has made it clear all options are on the table to stop the slaughter."

Mike Waltz, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations

At least 52 prisoners were executed in Iran based on prior non-political convictions during a period of nationwide protests and an ongoing internet shutdown.  Iran International

 

Last June Leavitt had read a message to reporters saying it had come "directly from the president". Trump himself would decide, he maintained, whether to strike Iran "within the next two weeks"; this at a time when Israel was carrying out strikes on Iran, and the president was weighing whether he would order the U.S. military to become involved. Before two days elapsed B-2 bombers were ordered to carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. 

 

"It might be that they're delaying things and using the time for getting that posture correct", ventured Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, on the theory that the American president might have been concerned over the current U.S. force posture in the Middle East spurring him to hesitate. No U.S. aircraft carriers, an asset during a military operation in the region were available having been deployed to an operation focused on Venezuela.

 

The perceived shifting tone of U.S. President Donald Trump leaning away from his threats to attack Iran following his continued warning issuing warnings against Tehran for its brutal crackdown on Iranians mounting a countrywide protest against the oppressive Islamist Republic's theocratic regime saw a drop in oil prices as markets reacted to the uncertainty of this mercurial president's changeable sentiments.

 

The intervention of top officials from Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar warning that an American military intervention would have the effect of destabilizing the global economy as well as shaking an already volatile region moving it close to a total regional war appears to have had an effect on the president's decision-making. This is a Muslim Brotherhood reaction to the potential removal of the Islamist theocracy ruling Iran.  

 

Anti-government protesters demonstrate on January 8, in Tehran.   Getty Images

 

While Oman and Qatar are in full support of Iran, as Muslim Brotherhood-linked states, the Muslim Brotherhood has been officially proscribed in Egypt, where it was formed almost a century ago, as a fundamentalist Islamist group dedicated to strict Sharia and jihad by any means, and in Saudi Arabia as well it is outlawed, though it seems that the severe orthodoxy of totalitarian Islamism dictates the decision making in favour of the Muslim Brotherhood whose agenda the Islamic Republic of Iran represents a living example.

 

Qatar in particular, with its massive oil wealth, has bought respectability and recognition as a 'moderate' Muslim state in the United States. Its persuasive power lies in its massive financial investments there, in its universities where it has been able to influence academia to respect its agenda of portrayals of Islam as benign, not the Western values-destructive totalitarian threat it carries. President Trump admires the trappings of wealth and power and is not immune to appreciating those whose generosity benefits him personally.

 

Iranians took to the streets despite the danger they face from their despotic, oppressive government that has, over almost a half-century persecuted them through force of threats and state punishment from imprisonment, torture and a relentless death penalty. Despite Iran's authorities warning the population that taking part in mass protests against the government would be construed as grounds for capital punishment, Iranians kept turning out in their hundreds of thousands in cities across the nation, facing police violence.

 

Iran International

 

Estimates of the rising death count have reached well over 30,000 people. The wounded have overwhelmed hospitals and now reports emerge that the Basij are entering hospitals to take away and execute those wounded in the protests. As for families frantic to recover the bodies of their loved ones for burial, without the thousands of dollars demanded by the regime to release them, those families that cannot afford the price to redeem the corpses are left disconsolate in their grief. 

 

After having issued vehement threats to the Iranian regime for the rising death count, and promising Iranians that the U.S. military is prepared to rescue them,  Trump's assurances that "help is on its way", while urging Iranians to take over their country's institutions, abruptly declared information had been given him from "very important sources on the other side" that Iran  had put a halt to killing protesters and executions were no longer proceeding. No need, therefore, to intervene.

 

At the same time that Qatar, Oman, Egypt and Saudi Arabia persuaded Trump to stand down from his word to the Iranian people, they urged Iranian officials to end the visible repression of protesters, warning that continued Iranian responses or an action against the U.S. would significantly impact Iran. Through social media Trump repeated the speaking lines of those persuading him not to strike Iran: "This is good news, hopefully, it will continue!", he posted over the commutation of a death sentence for a young Iranian shopkeeper-protester.

 

Iran's response was to once more completely shut down the Internet connections across the nation.  And nor can cellphones be operational. No news in or out of the theocracy, other than what the regime may permit. No guarantees that the hunting down and slaughter of Iranians, disconsolate over their abandonment by the world at large and fearing now to emerge from their homes, is ongoing. This is what is meant by a pact with the devil some might compare to the 'art of the deal'. 

"[Thousands have been killed], some in an inhuman, savage manner."

"Those linked to Israel and the US caused massive damage and killed several thousand."

"We consider the US president criminal for the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted on the Iranian nation."

"[Iran considered President Trump to be a] criminal. [The US must be] held accountable [for recent unrest]."

"America's goal is to swallow Iran."

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 

Iran's supreme leader has for the first time publicly acknowledged that thousands of people were killed during recent protests, blames the West. Iranian leader press office via Getty Images